The Betting Corner: MLB Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Getty_Felix_Hernandez_up_high_in_HOU_pqe51tns_s0zn52sh4-22-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (Over 7)

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox

Season YTD: 27-20 +5.07 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 10-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-13

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-10

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We split Monday’s plays in an up and down emotional day.  We lose game 1 with the Yankees under; a game which had 6 runs scored in the first 3 and a half innings, only to result in 5 and a half shutout innings after that.  We make amends for it with a late come from behind victory in Chicago.  Asdrubal Cabrera has hopefully broke out of his early season woes (he’s on my fantasy team) with a game winning 2 out 2 run single in the top of the 8th to go up 3-2.  Just one play for Tuesday.

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1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

We go back to the Cleveland/Chicago series for a second consecutive day.  These two teams have met 4 times so far this year, hitting 3 of 4 on the under (covering by 3.5, 4, and 6.5 runs).  Chicago has been struggling to score runs of late averaging less than 2 runs per game in their last 4.  Cleveland seems to be scoring in bunches.  They’ve scored 3 or less in 3 of their last 5 with the other two coming against Houston Astros pitching (which isn’t saying much considering I saw a stat today in which I believe no starter has made it passed the 6th inning for them in like their last 7 games).

Both young pitchers have started off their 2013 campaign hot as well.  Even with a 1-2 record, Zach McAllister bolsters a 3.12 ERA.  He is however 2-0 in 4 starts against the Sox with a 2.66 ERA.  In his young career, he’s historically pitched much better on the road vs at hime with a split ERA of 3.30 away to 4.98 at home.  Quintana is coming off of 2 straight with no earned runs allowed (one was against Cleveland last week).  He’s got a 2.55 ERA with one win on the year.  Both have favorable batter/pitcher heads up matchups.  I’d prefer this one at 8.5, but it’s never going to get there.  If you’re not fast enough in betting this one, it may drop to 7.5 by game time.

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Friday, April 12th, 2013

143344089_crop_exact4-11-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels (Under 8.5) (-115)

Season YTD: 14-9 +4.16 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

First tough loss of the year IMO.  Top of the 9th inning error costs us the under by 1/2 a run.  On the flip side, had it not happened, we would’ve only WON by half a run as well.  In games like that, you have to realize over a 162 game season, it’s going to happen plenty of times.  To be a successful gambler, you have be able to roll with the punches.

Friday we’ve got our first big card of the year to start off the weekend.  A handful of aces go for the third time this season.  You’ll notice the more information and starts that are in the books, the more we’ll test our luck with moneylines and runlines.

A total of 6 games Friday, and sorry but I don’t have time to re-look up all the stats for my writeups.  Just know at the time of writing this paragraph, it’s 11:46 PST and I started doing research at 10:00.

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1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)**Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)** Bet this Friday, may get better line

Pitt’s struggled all year.  Just because they have Burnett on the mound doesn’t mean they should be favored against the best in the NL Central.  Also, Leake has faired well against the Pirates in the past.

Atlanta comes into this game 8-1.  Washington is going to want to defend their home turf against the NL East rivals.  Expect this series to be a battle all year.  In this game though, the pitching matchup is by far in favor of Washington.  Anything under -140 seems like a good price for this one.

Cleveland’s had the luxury of having 2 days off.  A hot Justin Masterson takes the mound and at -135 at home, I expect the Indians to get back on track.  Quintana should be welcome sight after facing a few Yankee veterans.

The Twins have come back down to earth, but you could make the argument that so have the Mets.  At even odds, I think the combination of Niese and the NY lineup should be able to best Worley and the slumping Twin bats, even on the road.

Clayton Kershaw has yet to give up an earned run so far this year.  No reason this total should be 8, especially when his opponent in Patrick Corbin has had success against the Dodgers in the past.  Still without proof that Kershaw can get lit up this year, anything above 7 is a bet for sure in this one.

Lastly, Houston has had their moment.  Too bad for us it had to happen against Seattle.  Frankly, 2 may be their longest winning streak of the season.  This is a perfect situation for LA.  They’ve struggled, so they have no reason coming into this game to overlook the Astros.  Hanson is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his career against Houston.  Bud Norris, to say the least, struggled mightily on the road last year.  the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play is because the Angels bullpen hasn’t proven they can get anyone out yet this year.  Play it for 1.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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