The Betting Corner: MLB Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

BJ_Justin_Upton_b2b_p1uze741_kw4c469p4-23-13 Recap:

CANCELED: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

Season YTD: 27-20 +5.07 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 11-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 6-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 15-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-14

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-10

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We have another game cancelled yesterday.  In recent history, I don’t remember this many games that have been cancelled due to inclement weather.  We’ve got to be in or at least close to double digits at this point and there’s still a week left in the month of April.

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1 Unit – Arizona at San Francisco (+150)

As I’m writing this, Arizona has just taken a 6-4 lead over San Fran in the top of the 11th so I’m going to assume they’ll close it out.  We could’ve gotten a little more value out of this had they lost the first two games of this series but our bet Wednesday is based off of value anyways so it’s kind of irrelevant.

Ian Kennedy has struggled a bit this year, but the Giants would be a perfect candidate to break out of it.  In his career against San Francisco, he’s started 13 games and has a 6-2 record with a 2.38 ERA.  In his career at AT&T park, he’s 3-1 over 7 starts holding a 2.66 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .215 opponent BA.  His opponent in Madison Bumgarner has started off a little stronger this year, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA.  He hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in a start yet YTD.  He doesn’t have horrible stats against Arizona holding a .500 record in 8 starts and a 3.78 ERA.

Two reasons we’re betting this one.  The first is I don’t expect Bumgarner to continue his dominance in this game.  3 of his first 4 games were against under .500 teams and Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games against him.  The second reason is the moneyline is way off.  No reason in hell should Arizona be anywhere near a +150 underdog given this matchup.

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1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-120)

For the second game on our card, we’re going with Philadelphia in game two of this civil war series.  Hamel’s pitched well, but the Phillies offensive woes continued as they lost 2-0 Tuesday night.  They face off Wednesday against Wandy Rodriguez who’s started off the season strong.  He’s 2-0 in 3 starts with an ERA of 0.56.  However, in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, he’s sporting a 7.11 ERA over 4 games.  He’s also got the following stats against the following Philly hitters.  Ryan Howard (4-12 w/ 1 HR), Jimmy Rollins (6-15 w/ 1 HR), Chase Utely (2-10), and Michael Young (6-18).  Those are some encouraging stats for the core of the Philly offense (less Utley). Hopefully, they’ll be able to put a few early runs on the board and relieve some pressure off Halladay.

Speaking of Halladay, he seems to have figured out his early season woes, getting 2 wins in his last 2 starts giving up only 3 earned runs in 15 innings of work.  Not only that, but he’s pitched extremely well against Pittsburgh in his career.  He’s 4-1 over 6 starts with an ERA under 1.  At -120, at home, AND after a loss in the series opener, look for the Fightin’ Phils to bounce back and scrap out a win in this one.

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**Note – The lines on the following games aren’t up yet.  I’ll check into them tomorrow and update the page with plays if needed.

Atlanta at Colorado

Toronto at Baltimore

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0.5 Units – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8) -120

We’re hopping back on the same play we had yesterday before it got rained out.  We’re knocking it down to 0.5 units however because our odds were hacked from -105 to -120, and it scares me just enough that they were ready to go yesterday and have to re-prepare themselves all over again to start today (some pitchers can do it no problem and others hate breaking their routine).  The stats are still there to back up this play, but there’s a few more variables at work now.

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0.5 Units – Kansas City at Detroit (+166)

Wade Davis has always been a quick starter in his career.  In the month of April all time, he holds a 7-3 record with a 2.83 ERA.  So far this year, he’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA (and hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 2).  His opponent in Max Scherzer has also started off well this season, honing a 1-0 record with a 2.84 ERA.  The line is what get’s me in this one.  Detroit has been struggling to score runs (averaging 1.2 runs per game in their last 5) and has lost their last 4 in a row.  Kansas City played very competitively in Boston taking 2 of 3 (surprising considering the emotion Boston was playing with in front of their home fans for the first time since the bombing).  The only reason I’m not making this a 1 unit play is that neither of these teams have played a game in 3 days, so with that much time off, I don’t wanna get burned if Detroit’s offense comes out hot.

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1 Unit – Texas at LA Angels (Over 7.5) (-115)

The Angels Bullpen is taxed right now.  They’ve had 2 extra inning games in their last 3, of which the bullpen has thrown 14 innings.  De La Rosa, Downs, and Frieri have all thrown at least an inning of work in each of those 3.  As if that wasn’t bad enough, their hand is forced to use Michael Roth in a spot start thinning their bullpen even more.  This game could get out of hand quick against an offense as powerful 1 through 9 as Texas.  7.5 seems awfully low considering the above.  Not to mention, neither team has scored less than 4 runs in their previous 5 games.  Darvish is the only reason this game is near the number it’s at and he only lasted 5 innings and gave up 3 against the Angels not 2 and a half weeks ago.

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Thursday, April 18th, 2013

041713-MLB--Braves-Juan-Francisco-DG-PI_20130417151948783_660_3204-17-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at Cincinatti

Season YTD: 20-17 +0.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 7-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 12-2

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-10

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-8

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Pretty self evident Lannan didn’t have his best stuff in this one.  The way the Phils offense has been playing this game seemed out of reach after he gave up 6 earned runs by the completion of the second inning.  Leake pitched well and had a few hits to go with it.  Nice card for tomorrow.

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1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Over 9.5)

This games opened up at 9.5 in a few early posting sportsbooks.  I’m guessing by morning it will be 10 at least.  Get it at as low as possible (preferably under 11 if you can; if it gets to there I’d drop it to 1/2 a unit).  Weather should be tolerable but that hasn’t seemed to stop these teams the last couple days anyways.  Low chance of rain and the wind should be blowing out to center 15-20 MPH by game time.

Also, these pitchers haven’t fared well against one another in the past and have been par at best against sub par offenses.  Niese has given up 4, 1, and 2 earned runs.  Doesn’t seem like a lot but he was facing Minnesota, Miami, and San Diego.  Those three teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in total runs scored (Miami is a solid 30/30).  His opponent in the Rockies is in second with 82 total runs scored.

Jon Garland has given up 5 earned runs against San Diego in 2 starts this year (12 innings pitched w/ a 3.75 ERA).  San Diego is ranked 19th in total runs scored this year.  His opponent in the Mets are only 1 run and 1 place behind Colorado (3rd at 81 total runs scored) for 2013.  I like the odds for this one to complete the sweep for overs in this one.

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1 Unit – St. Louis at Philadelphia (Under 7.5)

We learned last night that the Phillies have had nothing but issues scoring runs the past week.  Cole Hamels is veteran enough to know he’s going to need to be on his game to be in contention tomorrow.  Some would say this may pressure him a bit too much but he’s also pitching for himself today.  His first two games were very un-Hamels like and I expect him to continue the success from his third start.

Wainwright is no slouch either.  He doesn’t want to be the one the Phillies break out against.  He’s pitched well against the Phils in the past (2.20 ERA over 9 games).

It’s always hard to bet such a low under, but this one warrants it.

*Side note: This games hovering around a price of -120 as I’m writing this but I feel that will go down a bit by game time.  I’m wary to wait in the hopes it doesn’t drop to 7, but I think I’ve got the right read on this one.

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1.5 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-125)

I think it’s a decent spot for a step out in this one.  The Pirates offense has benefitted from beating up on two horribly underperforming bullpens this year (Cincinnati ranked #23 in bullpen ERA and St Louis ranked #30/30 in team bullpen ERA) .  Guess who’s #1 in starter and reliever ERA.  I’ll give you a hint, it starts with an “A” and ends with “tlanta Braves”.

The Pirates host Atlanta who finally lost yesterday ending their 10 game win streak.  That means there’s only one thing for them to do; start another one.  This price is a little ridiculous.  If you recall, last week when we had the Nats in their opener of that series, it was at -130 (should’ve won that game but that’s what Atlanta brings to the table; the ability to come back against anyone).  Teheran was the starter in that game.  He gave up 4 quick runs (2 on a HR to the opposite field by Bryce Harper; and it wasn’t a bad pitch either) but pitched very well after that. The Nats also had a much better starter than Jeff Locke on the mound in Ross Detwiler.

Basically, what this line is telling me, is that the .500 Pirates and Locke are worth more than the Nationals who were preseason favorites to place ahead of the Braves and win around 95 games this year?  Nah.  Take the -125 without hesitation. Lastly Locke isn’t an overpowering pitche.  Many experts have spoken their opinion that K’s are one of the Braves only weaknesses this year.  that being said, Their one weakness shouldn’t be TOO much of an issue in this one.

 

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Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

 

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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