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The Betting Corner: MLB Sunday, April 28th, 2013

April 27, 2013 by Leave a Comment

nationals_1trh92a3_t8pxw4nr4-27-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – San Francisco at San Diego (-105)

Loss: 1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle (Over 6.5)

Season YTD: 30-27 +1.07 Units

Back to the same old losing games by a thread.  San Fran blows a 5 run early lead to a team who has scored more than 5 runs in a game only 4 times all year.  2 times have been when we bet against them.  Great timing.  Is Seattle, we miss by 1 run.  Had the Angels been able to tie it up 3-3 we would have been able to cover even if it went to extras.  Big card tomorrow, not time to do any write ups though.

___

1 Unit – Toronto at NY Yankees

1 Unit – Cincinnati at Washington (Under 7.5)

1 Unit – Baltimore at Oakland

1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle

1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (Under 8)

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The Betting Corner: MLB Saturday, April 27th, 2013

April 27, 2013 by Leave a Comment

jhonny1000_uza9ccxe_cocpn83r4-26-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

Season YTD: 30-25 +3.12 Units

Screen shot 2013-04-27 at 12.23.31 PM

Two consecutive days now we haven’t even been close with our plays.  We haven’t lost many like this so far this year.  Now you see why I’ve been frustrated losing games we shouldn’t be, because you knew these types of games would come where you’ve got no shot.  Our record isn’t indicative of the types of plays we’ve been putting out this year.  Hopefully our breaks will come sooner rather than later.

___

1 Unit – San Francisco at San Diego (-105)

It’s no secret that Barry Zito has struggled against San Diego in the past (holding 4.52 ERA aginst them in his career.  But Stults is no saint against the Giants either.  Even though he’s got a positive record, he’s still rocking a 4.94 ERA against the them.  So you can throw those stats out the window.  This one seems pretty simple.  At roughly even money, I’ll go with the better offense and pitcher overall this year.

Zito is sporting a 3-1 record with a 3.42 ERA.  Keep in mind too that all of his runs this year were given up in Milwaukee 2 weeks ago where he got lit up for 9 earned in 2.2 innings.  Other than that, he’s been untouchable.  Outside of his first start of the year, Stults has been touched up on a continuous basis, giving up 4, 3, and 5 runs to the Dodgers twice and our Giants.  San Fran is averaging 4.2 runs per game in 2013 (4.09 on the road) versus San Diego’s measly 3.2 runs per game (3.30 at home).

___

1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle (Over 6.5)

This is one of those cases where just because Felix Hernandez is pitching, the total is set extremely low.  For this case however, he hasn’t historically pitched well against the Angels.  He’s fresh off his 100th victory as a starter, throwing 6 shut out innings with 9 K’s (granted it was against Houston).  His success, or lack there of, against the Angels in his career would indicate a different type of outing for him tonight.  He’s 6-12 over 30 career starts with an ERA just north of 4.  He’s lost his last 5 starts against LA, giving up 7, 2, 4, 4, and 5 earned runs.

Joe Blanton on the other hand, holds a 3.5 ERA over 15 starts against Seattle with an 8-5 record.  So far this year though, he’s yet to last longer than 6 innings or give up fewer than 4 earned runs.  It’s almost impossible to argue betting the under in any game listed at 6.5.  3 runs a pop and we’re home free for the over.  Given the above stats, I’d say the odds of that happening are far greater than not.

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The Betting Corner: MLB Friday, April 26th, 2013

April 25, 2013 by Leave a Comment

gordon_5axedjyy_zhhnascc4-25-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Texas at Minnesota (Over 8.5)

Season YTD: 30-23 +5.32 Units

Screen shot 2013-04-25 at 11.39.02 PM

Well, both pitchers came to play in this one.  Can’t say we had this one right.  Texas had a few chances with the bases loaded in the middle innings and less than two outs but couldn’t produce the breakout inning we needed.

___

1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

Even though Detroit won against KC the other day, they still haven’t been playing well.  You could argue 4 of their runs were unearned because they came after an error that would’ve ended the inning.  2 of the remaining 3 runs scored were from players that walked due to the wildness of Wade Davis.  Outside of those gifts their offense has been stagnant.  Atlanta on the other hand went into Colorado and took 2 of 3 from the number 1 team in the NL West.

I feel I’ve got a pretty good read on Maholm this year, we’ve been on the right side of two if his games this year (one was last week with Pitt in a 3-1 victory).  He’s coming off the 3 earned runs we called and would love to bounce back against struggling Detroit.  Maholm is holds a 2.60 ERA against the Tigers in 3 career starts.  Add that to his outrageous 3-1 record and 1.03 ERA, I’ll take him as a road underdog against a struggling offense.

Anibal Sanchez on the other hand, while throwing well this year (2-1 with a 1.75 ERA), has struggled against Atlanta in the past.  In 17 starts, he’s 4-11 with a 5.42 ERA (Atlanta’s won the last 5 games he’s started against them).  And if we don’t get up early, it’s always nice knowing Atlanta’s bullpen is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA on the year.  That’s ranked #1 in MLB.  Detroit, not so much.  They hold a 1-5 record with a 4.86 ERA.  That’s good for 27th in the majors.

___

1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

7.5 is an awfully low total for these two teams considering their offensive capabilities and who they’re sending to the mound.  Hell, Dillon Gee threw two and a half weeks ago against the Phils and gave up 7 in just 3 innings. Philadelphia hasn’t been playing bad.  They’re getting runners on base, they’re just not getting those timely hits to get over the hump.  Facing Gee again may be the kick they need.  He’s now got a 7.55 career ERA against them in 7 games.

The Mets offense has scored an average of 5.68 runs per game (ranked #1 in the NL) and are currently 7-4 this year against right handed pitching.  Kyle Kendrick has pitched well in the early going, but I expect enough of a hiccup if not from him then hopefully from the Philly bullpen who has fared so well when we’ve gone with them in the last.

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The Betting Corner: MLB Thursday, April 25th, 2013

April 24, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Getty_Jose_Valverde_IS_BACK_BABY_i7etjxz4_a3as2vup4-24-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Arizona at San Francisco (+150)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-120)

WIN: 1 Unit – Texas at LA Angels (Over 7.5)

LOSS: 0.5 Units – Kansas City at Detroit

WIN: 0.5 Units – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

Season YTD: 30-22 +6.37 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 12-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 7-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 15-6

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-15

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-11

___

We tack on 1.3 units yesterday, but it could have been a lot more IMO.  Tough to be frustrated with a winning day, but both our losses could have been avoided.  A costly error in Detroit opens up the floodgates to a 4 run inning (3B Mike Moustakas botched 2 ground balls in a row; one of which went right through his legs, costing us 4 runs in what could have been a win).  In Philly, another bullpen blows a 2 run lead we held the entire game late.  All 3 of our other wins were just as a suspected.  A coin flip of a game in San Fran goes our way, Cleveland and Chicago continue to have trouble scoring runs, and I’m pissed with a total of 7.5 I didn’t take the Angel game as a step out.  I had a feeling Texas could cover this one on their own with the pitching they were up against and they accomplished it in one inning.  We’re slowly grinding our way forward right now (which is a hell of a lot better than backwards) but we just can’t hit that break out day.  It’ll happen though, the streak will come. Until then, a slow profit is perfectly fine with me.

___

1 Unit – Texas at Minnesota (Over 8.5)

Texas hit the over for us last night themselves, we go back to them for the over in game 1 of their 4 game set with Minnesota.  Texas is on a tear at the plate of late and Minnesota is holding their own as well (scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5).  Vance Worley hasn’t proved he can pitch successfully at Target Field yet and last year he held an ERA a full 2 points higher at home vs on the road.  Texas sends to the mound rookie Nick Tepesch who has held his own early this 2013 campaign.  He’s yet to be weather tested in his young career and throwing in 30 degree weather against any MLB offense may prove itself to be a bit of a curveball.  Take the over.

 

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The Betting Corner: MLB Tuesday, April 23, 2013

April 22, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Getty_Felix_Hernandez_up_high_in_HOU_pqe51tns_s0zn52sh4-22-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (Over 7)

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox

Season YTD: 27-20 +5.07 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 10-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-13

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-10

___

We split Monday’s plays in an up and down emotional day.  We lose game 1 with the Yankees under; a game which had 6 runs scored in the first 3 and a half innings, only to result in 5 and a half shutout innings after that.  We make amends for it with a late come from behind victory in Chicago.  Asdrubal Cabrera has hopefully broke out of his early season woes (he’s on my fantasy team) with a game winning 2 out 2 run single in the top of the 8th to go up 3-2.  Just one play for Tuesday.

___

1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

We go back to the Cleveland/Chicago series for a second consecutive day.  These two teams have met 4 times so far this year, hitting 3 of 4 on the under (covering by 3.5, 4, and 6.5 runs).  Chicago has been struggling to score runs of late averaging less than 2 runs per game in their last 4.  Cleveland seems to be scoring in bunches.  They’ve scored 3 or less in 3 of their last 5 with the other two coming against Houston Astros pitching (which isn’t saying much considering I saw a stat today in which I believe no starter has made it passed the 6th inning for them in like their last 7 games).

Both young pitchers have started off their 2013 campaign hot as well.  Even with a 1-2 record, Zach McAllister bolsters a 3.12 ERA.  He is however 2-0 in 4 starts against the Sox with a 2.66 ERA.  In his young career, he’s historically pitched much better on the road vs at hime with a split ERA of 3.30 away to 4.98 at home.  Quintana is coming off of 2 straight with no earned runs allowed (one was against Cleveland last week).  He’s got a 2.55 ERA with one win on the year.  Both have favorable batter/pitcher heads up matchups.  I’d prefer this one at 8.5, but it’s never going to get there.  If you’re not fast enough in betting this one, it may drop to 7.5 by game time.

____________________________________________________________________________
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

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The Betting Corner: MLB Monday, April 22nd, 2013

April 21, 2013 by Leave a Comment

trumbo_qhn7sorw_ykpgxx4f4-21-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Baltimore (-122)

WIN: 1 Unit – Oakland at Tampa Bay (Over 8) (+100)

LOSS: 1 Unit – St Louis at Philadelphia (Under 8.5) (-112)

Season YTD: 26-19 +5.22 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 10-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-13

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-13

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 7-10

___

Well, Mitchell Boggs did it to us again.  Last time we had the Cards over the Reds and the St Louis bullpen blew up for almost a double digit inning.  Sunday, we had a 2 run leeway going into the bottom of the 8th.  Needless to say, Boggs gave up twice that and we end the week on a losing note.  Onto tomorrow…

___

1 Unit – NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (Over 7)

The Yankees take on the Rays for their first series of the year Monday.  Veteran CC Sabathia faces off against newcomer Matt Moore.  Sabathia has 29 career starts against TB, going 10-9 with a 3.19 ERA.  Matt Moore is 2-2 over 4 starts with a 5.06 ERA.  7 runs is just too low for this game.  Tampa Bay’s offense is on a good run of late and it’s not too much to ask this injury ridden NY offense to score a minimum of 3 runs.  If each team hits that number we’re guaranteed at least a push.  It always seems when the AL east plays one another, starting pitchers have trouble getting into late innings due to pitch counts.  Hopefully that’s the case tomorrow.

___

1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox

Justin Masterson has had quite a solid start to is 2013 campaign.  Tomorrow, he faces off against the White Sox, a team who he threw a complete game shut out against not two weeks ago.  He’s got a 2.46 ERA against Chi town in his career.  Dylan Axelrod on the other hand has had only one start against Cleveland where he gave up 4 runs in less than 5 innings.  At even money, considering the Indians have scored 24 runs in their last 2 games (Chicago has scored 4), I’ll look for them to make it 3 in a row.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

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The Betting Corner: MLB Sunday, April 21st, 2013

April 21, 2013 by Leave a Comment

redsox_7ddmxcww_yohzbng24-20-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

WIN: 1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Season YTD: 25-17 +6.56 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 9-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-12

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-4

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-12

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 6-10

___

Solid 2-0 sweep yesterday as we were right on with our analysis.  Maholm gives up the three runs we’d hoped and McDonald pitched great giving up only 1 run on a walk.  Both bullpens were flawless as expected and we cash in on the 3-1 victory.  In Colorado, De La Rosa pitched lights out in their 4-3 victory against Arizona.  The bullpen made us sweat it a little more than we’d liked late, but they still got the job done.  Let’s see if we can ride the momentum and close the week on a high note.

___

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Baltimore (-122)

Baltimore goes for the sweep today in their series finale against the Dodgers.  A late pitching change sends Stephen Fife to the mound for his Major League debut.  Arrieta is no Cy Young candidate, but the O’s offense should have a field day with a pitcher making his major league debut on the road.  At -122, this price seems like a steal.

___

1 Unit – Oakland at Tampa Bay (Over 8) (+100)

Outside of yesterday, Tampa Bay’s offense seems to be clicking this past week.  They face up against youngster Tom Milone and Oakland today.  Milone’s struggled in his 2 starts past against the Rays, holding a 1-1 record and 8.18 ERA.  Not only that, but his  career ERA is over a point and a half higher on the road than at home.

Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) is a league veteran but he hasn’t made a career of throwing shutouts.  He’s an innings eater and you can usually bank on him giving up a few runs per start.  In 13 career games against Oakland, he’s 4-7 with a 5.14 ERA.  Oakland’s offense has been putting up runs in bunches, and with a total of 8, I don’t see it a problem for each of these teams to score 4 runs a piece and hit the over for us.

___

1 Unit – St Louis at Philadelphia (Under 8.5) (-112)

The Phillies and Cardinals conclude their first series of the season under the lights on Sunday Night Baseball.  It’s no mystery the Fightin’ Phils haven’t been running well of late.  They’re struggling to put runs on the board and their record is suffering as a result.  They go up against Jake Westbrook tonight who bring a 1-1 record into tonights contest.  That’s odd considering he still hasn’t given up an earned run so far in 15 2/3 innings this 2013 campaign.  Unless the Phillies can break out of their slump and put a few crooked numbers on the board, expect another solid outing from Jake in this one.

The Phils send to the mound Kyle Kendrick, who holds a 1-1 record to date with a 3.38 ERA.  In his career against the Cardinals, he’s 5-1 over 6 starts with a 2.68 ERA.  He’s got to know he has to be sharp in this one to have a chance at a W considering the Phillies offense has been stagnant at best this year, scoring an average of just 3.5 runs per contest.  I’m expecting a pitchers duel in this one, and as long as the bullpens don’t implode late, we should be able to take the under to the bank.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
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The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 20th, 2013

April 20, 2013 by Leave a Comment

385_9ccgclns_rhsuqtp1

4-19-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Season YTD: 23-17 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 8-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-3

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-11

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-10

___

We were on the right side in yesterdays contest.  Starting pitching went pretty much as I expected, just a few runs given up on a few home runs for each.  We really cashed in this game though when the bullpens were able to shut it down completely in the last third of the game.  We’re on that little winning streak of 5-1-1 that I promised would eventually come after a run of bad games.  Lets hope we can keep it going.

___

1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

Pittsburgh has been playing well lately.  Their offense is clicking and I was unaware of this last game, but their team bullpen ERA is 6th in MLB at 2.34.  Today is going to be a pitcher’s duel whether you realize it or not.  The names Paul Maholm and James McDonald don’t exactly scream “pitcher’s duel” but when you see the statistics you’ll come to realize why Vegas set this line at 7.5.

Paul Maholm hasn’t given up an earned run this year.  Granted he’s pitched against Washington (13th), Philadelphia (15th), and Miami (30th in total runs scored 2013) so he hasn’t been tested all that much.  Maholm brings a career 4.20 ERA (3.74 and 3.54 the last 2 years with Atlanta) into todays game.  One thing to note though is that on the road he holds a 4.80 ERA, giving him a home/away spread of almost a point difference.  Don’t expect him to exit todays game with less than 3 earned runs to his name (remember that reversion to the mean that I talked about, this is where it hopefully will help us tonight).

James McDonald comes into this game with a 1-2 clip and a 5.27 ERA; hardly a line you’d want to see your pitcher have against a team who’s only lost 3 games all year.  However, against the Braves in the past 3 years, he’s 3-0 over 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA.    Oh yeah, and his home/away splits last year, 6-2 at home with a 2.73 ERA vs just 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA at home.  McDonald also holds the edge in the batter/pitcher matchups.  You could argue that this is a coin flip of a ballgame, so at +130, we’re getting a nice price in this one.

___

1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Colorado’s bats have been their crutch as of late overcoming some shoddy pitching the last 5.  They shouldn’t need to score 8 in this one to secure a victory though.  Jorge De La Rosa takes the bump in his 4th start of the year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts.  In his career against Arizona however, he’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.41.  That’s quite a feat considering half those games have come in the altitude of Colorado.

His opponent in Trevor Cahill hasn’t had nearly as much success so far this year; or against the Rockies in his career for that matter. He’s 1-4 in 5 career starts against the Rockies.  This game shouldn’t be an even -110 contest.  I’ll ride the Rockies hot 5 game winning streak in this one.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

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The Betting Corner: Friday, April 19th, 2013

April 19, 2013 by Leave a Comment

 

Pedro+Alvarez+St+Louis+Cardinals+v+Pittsburgh+toZ24eptwkQl

4-18-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Over 9.5)

PUSH: 1 Unit – St. Louis at Philadelphia (Under 7.5)

I said to wait until game day to bet this and it dropped to 7.  Sucks but it’s a lesson I’ll remember for future totals in the halves.

WIN: 1.5 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-125)

Season YTD: 22-17 +3.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 7-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-2

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-10

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-9

___

Solid 2-0-1 day yesterday.  Could’ve and should’ve been a 3-0 day but as I stated above, that’s a solid lesson I’ll keep in the records.

___

1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Two offenses who have had trouble putting runs on the board meet up today.  Lucas Harrell’s thrown well so far this year and has faired well at home in his career.  Brett Myers has struggled so far this 2013 campaign but Houston is a team that scores runs in bunches.  They’ve struggled at the plate of late and that may be just what Brett needs to put a good start together.  I’ll roll with the under.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

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The Betting Corner: Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

April 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment

AP13041512215_uqgvr2jr_0p3nqa284-15-13 Recap:

CANCELED: 1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Under 10)

Season YTD: 18-16 -.24 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-9

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 11-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-6

___

Didn’t get to take advantage of the wind, snow, and cold as the game was cancelled.  Game has been rescheduled today and has been pushed back a few hours.  We’re not betting it again though as there probably won’t be any snow and the wind is blowing out to left today.  Still 2 totals on the table though.

___

1 Unit – Kansas City at Atlanta (Over 7)

This is one of those law of averages plays.  Guthrie has been good so far this year and Medlen has been great.  But if you think about it, for at the very least, to get a push in this game each team has to score just 3 runs.  This COULD definitely go under but if this game were to be played out 100 times, my odds are that at least 60 will push or go over the total.

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1 Unit – Detroit at Seattle (Over 7)

This game’s somewhat the same as the first.  Doug Fister has been good so far this year but he’s not going to maintain a 2.77 ERA all year.   Veteran Aaron Harang makes his first appearance of the year against the American League Champion Tigers.  I don’t see any way both these teams can’t score a minimum of 3 runs a piece to at least get a push.

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