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Fantasy “Start Em Or Sit Em”

September 7, 2013 by Leave a Comment
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Ahh it’s time to offer up some “Start em Sit em” advice and though its not as epic as offering pre draft insight it’s still fun. The obvious weekly basis starts  (Brees, Peterson, Megatron, Graham etc.) will not be mentioned.

 

– Note: This was done before the Thursday Game but did not run on the site !

 

Start em

QB

Matt Ryan: Matty Ice is playing in New Orleans. I repeat, Matty Ice will be going up against the Saints defense. Expect a shootout between him and Brees. ‘Nuff Said.

Andrew Luck: Luck’s starting his sophomore season off against Oakland at home. You can expect him to try and get ahead of the Sophomore slump whispers and the opportunity to take advantage of what will most likely be a lack luster defense, is only going to help.

 

RB – I think outside the obvious RB 1’s there are some sweet starts to either plug into that RB2 or your flex slot.

Shane Vereen: At Buffalo you can expect the Patriots to do two things offensively. Run the ball, and get Tom Brady on page with his new weapons. I think Vereen will get a few carries, more receptions, and close to 100 total yards and a TD.

Daryl Richardson: Going up against Arizona DRich isn’t exactly a safe bet, but look for the Rams to split him out wide. He’s the Rams starting RB. I think he comes out and shows he deserves that role. I bet you he catches 50 passes this year as a nice little bonus for PPR owners.Ben Tate: If you’re searching for a nice RB 2 or flex option Ben Tate is another worthy start.  Adrian’s not getting a full workload the first game according to Gary Zubiak. Tate’s gonna get more touches than usual, and he runs really well in that zone run system.Ahmad Bradshaw: I like his chances against Oakland. I like anyone’s chances against Oakland but Ahmad is a good back. Indy will always look to establish the run whether its with Bradshaw or Ballard is a different story. This week I like Bradshaw.

 

WR

Hakeem Nicks: Nicks hasn’t been getting the love he deserves in drafts, many owners have him as their 3rd WR and/or flex guy. Nicks is in a contract year and football players like getting paid. He’ll want to start well and despite common belief, Nicks is Eli’s favorite target especially in the red zone.

Danny Amendola: His value really shot up by the time owners were drafting so he may be a WR1 in most cases inevitably making him an obvious start making him a guy who should go unmentioned. I don’t care some got him as their WR2 and some guys even have him as their flex. So here it is. Start Amendola, he may not play a full 16 game season judging by his injury history. But he’s playing this game, and he’s going to score points.

Kenbrell Thompkins: Another Patriot receiver. The hype is oh so real. Start the man if your flex is still up in there, just play him. I’m thinking he’s a sure bet for 6-8 receptions and maybe more. PPR gold as I’ve said before. TDs may be his only downside due to the Pats love of the play action pass to the TE. But he’ll score a few.

Greg Jennings: This is a bit of a weird one. I find it funny he’s somewhat of a no name fantasy receiver this year. Jennings can play, his QB is horrible but the Vikings’ intentions are clear. They desperately need to make defenses respect the deep ball even if its just a little bit. Giving Adrian a little more room will pay off big time, they drafted Patterson who I think will be involved, but Jennings is the proven receiver. I think they’ll try to get him the ball deep right off the bat in week 1 to get it on tape for opposing defenses coming later in the year. I think he catches a TD in this game, and a long one.

 

TE

Zachary Sudfeld: While I’m not exactly sold on this guys hype despite my bias being a Pats fan I think if you’re going to play him, nows a pretty good time. Ron Gronkowski isn’t expected to play and any time that’s the case Sudfeld should probably make your lineup.

Julius Thomas: Again I’m trying to stay away from obvious guys to play. I think if you have a choice between say Greg Olsen and Julius Thomas you should start Thomas this week. Olsen is playing Seattle and Thomas has been drafted as a backup pretty consistently in fantasy drafts this year. If not check your waiver wire and get him. More on Olsen in the sit em part of this spectacular article.

 

Defense/Special Teams

New England: They’re playing Buffalo and though they’ll struggle with Spiller like any defense they should have fun with the EJ Manuel experiment.

Tampa Bay: Tampa for two reasons. Darrell Revis gets his revenge on the Jets and Geno Smith is absolutely horrible and is starting for NY. This should be a ridiculous year. Play any defense playing the Jets every week!

 

Kicker

No one should have backup kickers! Play who you got sonny!

You never see specific predictions like this! Cover 4 baby.

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Sit em

QB

Both Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton will have their worst weeks this season in week 1. But you really can’t sit Rodgers and in many cases you can’t sit Cam either. Both are playing the best defenses in the league (Rodgers @SF, Cam has SEA at home) so if you have excellent backups with good match ups then I don’t blame you. I’m scared for Rodgers’ life going against the best pass rusher in the game in Aldon Smith with a rookie left tackle to boot, and Cam well, he likes to run so he’ll be taking hits from a very physical Seattle defense no matter what. Scary stuff. If you drafted right you start whomever you took first at the QB position however these are two guys to look at.

 

RB

Arian Foster: Head coach Gary Zubiak has said they will gradually get him involved in week 1 considering he didn’t play a snap in the preseason. Ben Tate may be getting more carries in this one or the Texans may be bluffing. I like Tate more than Arian week 1.

DeAngelo Williams: Please don’t play this guy against Seattle, please don’t.

Eddie Lacy: Welcome to the NFL rook, have fun against San Fran, Pat Willis and company.

Isaac Redman: If you don’t have to I wouldn’t. He is going to start for PIT for awhile while Bell is out but he’s a fill in at best. That’s something you shouldn’t have to worry about week 1.

 

WR

Wes Welker: I’m not so sure Peyton is impressed and I think he’d probably even rather have Stokely I’m the slot considering he’s worked with him for so long. Give Welker time to get accustomed to what Peyton wants from him I don’t think you’ll get much from Wes early.

Steve Smith: Smith is facing one of the better cornerback tandems in the league in Browner and Sherman. They are massive compared to Smith and just as fast. He’ll struggle. If you’re sensing a theme you’re getting it, stay away from Carolina guys this week with Seattle in town.

Cecil Shorts: Love the guy but he’s simply not as talented as Blackmon and Gabbert is awful. Play KC’s defense is very underrated and should have some fun playing Jacksonville.

Anquan Boldin: I hope you didn’t draft this guy to start him. Don’t think you’ll be happy this year. He’s a big physical guy who will help block for the run game. He’s very similar to the type of player Hines Ward was.

 

TE

Greg Olsen: Carolina guy taking on Seattle. Olsen is far from a safe bet. However I do think if anybody scores on Carolina not named Cam Newton, it’ll be this guy.

Owen Daniels: I’m so over this guy as a legit starting TE for fantasy teams. He’s so boring.  Never anything spectacular you’re better off going for someone with high upside like a Sudfeld or Pettigrew. Maybe even Rob Housler from Arizona.

 

Defense/Special Teams:

Buffalo: I think they’ll be improved this year but they have Tom Brady in week one. If they’re defensive line shows up they’ll do alright.

Atlanta: Enter Drew Brees.

 

Kickers

Enough with the kickers already!

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Christian Stinchfield
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
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Fantasy Football Preview: A Guide to Win Your League

August 30, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Presentation1

Who to Target, Who to Avoid

Round 1:

Yes, you’re going to want to go RB here, big surprise.  The only non-RB I’m targeting is Calvin Johnson.  Outside of Megatron, I’m taking a top-12 back to help sure up that position.

Who to Target:

CJ Spiller:  Spiller’s going to have a monster year.  Barring injury I’m willing to put my fantasy credibility on the line and say he’s a legitimate candidate to rack up 2000 total yards. He’s my No. 2 pick after Adrian Peterson.

Doug Martin: Dougie has my attention.  I think he’s worth the third pick considering he’s got an elite offensive line clearing holes for him and Greg Schiano said the Bucs will be leaning on him.  If he and his line stay healthy, look for his numbers to improve even after a stellar year last season.

Ray Rice: I’ve seen Rice fall out of the top 5.  At six it’s a no-brainer. Many are afraid of him due to the slight emergence of his backup, Bernard Pierce.  Pierce is an added bonus in my eyes.  John Harbaugh has said Rice will be lined up in the slot when Pierce is in the backfield which sounds like PPR gold to me.  Pierce can also keep Rice fresh throughout the year which could bring a welcomed consistency to Rice’s fantasy performance. Draft Pierce as an insurance policy.

Calvin Johnson: If I don’t get AP, Spiller, Martin or Rice and I’m sitting at six with Megatron on the board, I’m taking him.  He’s a monster in PPR leagues and I think his TD numbers will be up a whole lot from last year.  Calvin owners from last year won their league 25 percent of the time, the highest winning percentage by any player outside of AP. Expect to get Stevan Ridley and Darren Sproles as your first and second backs and I’d recommend going after a Shane Vereen or Daryl Richardson as well.  Either way you’ll want to pay attention to the RB position later in your draft.

Al Morris/Matt Forte: These two are going at the end of round one and in some drafts, the beginning of round two.  If you have the last pick this year there’s a good chance you end up with both of these guys.  You gotta love that.  When it comes back around you can focus on snagging a couple high-end WRs.  You could take one WR and an elite TE or QB such as Jason Witten or Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers, a really solid draft strategy.

Who to Avoid:

Jamal Charles: I had a terrible experience with Charles, taking him with the No. 2 overall pick the year he tore his ACL. I may be biased on this guy, but I’m not convinced he’s who I want to count on as my No. 1 RB.  I look for reliability with the first RB I take enabling me to take risks on high upside guys later.  If you must take Charles, look to follow him with a pick like Ridley.  I like Ridley’s ability to remain consistent.

Arian Foster: I love Arian Foster, I took him first overall last year and won my league thanks in large part to him.  There are so many questions surrounding Foster this year I’m almost sure I’m avoiding him completely.  The only chance I’m taking Foster is if he falls to me at six or later and Megatron isn’t available.  I don’t think that will happen in most drafts.  If you take him, Ben Tate is a must-draft later on.

Marshawn Lynch: Why did the Seahawks take a RB in the second round in this year’s NFL draft?  On top of that Christine Michael has really impressed in camp and in preseason games.  He could steal a few carries.  Plus Lynch doesn’t really catch the ball.  I’d take him if it was between him and Morris at the end of the first, but that seems unlikely.

Jimmy Graham/Dez Bryant: Expect huge years for these guys.  I want them both on my team.  But  I’m not spending a first-round pick on either.

 

5 Sleeper WRs to Keep Your Eye On:

Justin Blackmon:  Blackmon isn’t that under the radar; however he’s still going extremely late in drafts for some reason.  Even with the four-game suspension he’s worth it because by the time he falls in drafts teams already have their starting WRs as well as a backup or even two.  You can’t go wrong with Blackmon. I’m sure he’ll produce even with the QB situation in Jacksonville.  The old Phil Simms quote applies here, “even when he isn’t open, he’s open.” I could get this guy the ball.

Kembrell Thompkins:  Another guy who the secret is out on.  Thompkins is going to start alongside Danny Amendola and we don’t see Amendola playing a full 16-game season so Thompkins may be the No. 1 in some weeks.  This kid is going a round or two after Blackmon, so when you take him it’s most likely you’ll already have 4 WRs.  You have to take him if that’s the case. He could be a 75-plus reception guy as he’s run both the deep routes and the Wes Welker-style routes for the Pats.

Markus Wheaton:  Wheaton can absolutely fly.  Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are the starters for the Steelers but expect Wheaton to be on the field a whole lot for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers could cause some problems for defenses with both Brown and Wheaton out there. That’s a serious amount of speed.

Kenny Stills: He’s the third WR for New Orleans and he’s a talent for sure. Drew Brees has already shown a lot of trust in the rookie in just a few preseason games.  He’ll go undrafted without a doubt, so pick him up if you don’t like how your WR corps looks immediately after your draft.  After 70 yards and a TD in Week 1 it will be a race to waiver wire for him anyway.

Brandon LaFell:  LaFell showed he can contribute as a No. 2 receiver for Carolina.  Cam Newton has found him in the red zone a few times as he’s much bigger than Steve Smith.  If you need a fill in, you could get a TD out of him.

5 Sleeper RBs to Keep Your Eye On:

LaMichael James: The 49ers began to get him involved last year and this year he should see even more action.  James possesses big play ability and is the young guy knocking on the old veteran’s door.  I remember a similar situation last year in San Fran involving a former No. 1 overall pick and some guy name Colin Kaepernick.  Hmm.

Christine Michael:  This kid fits right into the “beast mode” mentality in Seattle.  Michael is a physical runner who punishes defenders with every attempted tackle.  The Seahawks drafted him in the second round with no apparent need at RB, so we ask… Why?

Knowshon Moreno:  Still can picture him leaping over defenders in that Georgia uniform.  He’s a talented player who came on strong after Willis McGahee went down last season.  He is probably the most seasoned RB the Broncos have when you factor in pass protection, ball protection and receiving ability.  He’s worth the late pick it costs to get him.

Kenjon Barner: Jonathan Stewart’s been placed on the PUP list and even after he gets back I feel the tiny Oregon product, Barner, can show he deserves his touches. If he outplays DeAngelo Williams in the first six weeks, look out.

Isaac Redman: Went undrafted in my 12-team PPR high stakes league.  I scooped him off the waiver wire because LeVeon Bell’s out for awhile and sure enough Pittsburgh named him the interim starter. Nothing special here but he’ll carry the ball more than anyone on his team. There are only 32 of those guys out there ya know.

 

The Trick to Adding Depth and My Famous Jason Witten Pick
Year after year my favorite player to draft is Jason Witten. For the past two or three years explosive guys like Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis garner all the attention and it’s made it even easier for me to go under the radar and snag Witten in the fifth round. At that point I have my starting RBs and WRs, and while people are “adding depth” at those positions, I’m stealing a 20-30 point player (referring to points per game) giving me an edge every week at the TE position.
The only matchup I’m losing is Witten vs. Graham (or Witten vs. a healthy Rob Gronkowski) and even then I’m competing with them, scoring enough at the position to allow my other players win me the week. Graham goes in the mid-to-late second round and scores a little more than Witten. Witten goes three rounds later and really gives you an edge since you took a stud RB or WR in the same round that Graham was picked.
With the next two picks you add either another RB and WR, or one of the two and an elite QB who’s fallen right to you. I find myself in this position every draft, a possible top-three guy like Tom Brady or Tony Romo falling right in my lap in the seventh round holding a big sign saying, “Draft Me!” So through seven rounds all starting positions (outside of DEF/ST and kicker) are filled and everyone of those guys flat out score points. Plus, you have the luxury of not having to worry about a finding a QB who can get you 20 points weekly or a TE who’ll get you 10. Why? Because you stole both Witten and Brady/Romo, who can be counted on to score a substantial amount of points throughout the year.
Now you can focus on depth.  You already know you’re getting points from your workhorses. Now is the time to take risks and target sleepers or undervalued guys. Snatch up guys like Kenny Britt or Lance Moore, DeAngelo Williams or Daryl Richardson adding more starters for their respective teams and late at that. Then take your risks like Kenbrell Thompkins or Justin Blackmon.  Then add a solid defense and kicker one round earlier than most in an attempt to get a leg up on those positions knowing you can get Kenny Stills or Isaac Redman (who have been going undrafted) with your last pick. A good defense and kicker to target just a tad early would be New England and Sebastian Janikowski. Try it out in mocks and see if you like your team.  I always do.

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Christian Stinchfield
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Efficiency vs. Potential: You Make the Call

November 30, 2012 by 4 Comments

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By now everyone in the football world has heard Jim Harbaugh’s decision to start Colin Kaepernick over a now healthy Alex Smith for the San Francisco 49ers as they take on a formidable St. Louis Rams team this coming Sunday. Niners’ football faithful along with the casual football fan all have an opinion on the matter. I have an opinion on the matter, as I’m sure you have an opinion on the matter; and fortunately for you, we want to hear it.

​Forget for a second that Jim Harbaugh actually drafted Colin Kaepernick (and simply inherited Alex Smith) & put yourself in his shoes. Alex Smith has done nothing but produce for the 49ers recently, winning 13-of-16 regular season games in 2011 & posting a 6-2 (13:5 TD:INT ratio) record before being knocked from a Week 10 battle vs. Rams with a concussion.

If Smith’s recent win/loss record isn’t good enough to remain the starter, then let this sink in. At the time of his benching, Alex Smith was the LEAGUE LEADER in completion percentage. That’s right, Alex Smith completed more of this passes this season than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees – at 70.0%.

After a woeful beginning to his career, Alex Smith has finally gained the confidence of all 49ers’ fans with his efforts this season and last. His true camaraderie and gamesmanship even transcended between sports as he played a small, but exciting role in the 2012 San Francisco Giants playoff push and eventual championship.

Alex Smith wore a Giants’ baseball cap to one of his press conferences earlier in the 2012 NFL season. In turn the Giants invited Smith to throw out the ceremonial first pitch to one of their playoff games. Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy and other Giants’ players even donned 49ers hats to support Smith and the team. After the Giants won the 2012 World Series, Alex Smith drove Matt Cain’s car in the parade throughout San Francisco. The city and fans alike have all finally fully invested in Alex Smith – or at least he thought.

Enter electrifying second-year quarterback out of University of Nevada-Reno, Colin Kaepernick. The 25-year old can essentially make all the plays that Alex Smith simply can’t.  Before being drafted 36th overall to the 49ers in the 2011 NFL Draft, Colin Kaepernick was actually drafted by the Chicago Cubs in 2009 as a pitcher, despite not having played baseball since high school – so you know he has an extremely strong arm.

The 6’4, 230lb Kaepernick adds plenty of upside to the quarterback position for the 49ers besides his obvious arm strength. As was evident in his only two NFL starts versus Bears & Saints, Colin Kaepernick has all the necessary tools to be successful in the NFL.

He can make throws on a rope, zipping the ball directly to his receivers, drop balls in the “bread basket” with pristine accuracy and touch, and he possesses the power to launch the ball clear across the field, which must have veteran wide-receiver Randy Moss licking his chops.

Another skill Kaepernick possesses is his inherent ability to elude pass rushers. For such a huge frame, Kaepernick is incredibly slippery and agile, which awards him more time to look downfield to find wide-open teammates while under heavy pressure. Oh, and if those teammates don’t happen to be open, scampering for a first down is another aspect of the game in which Kaepernick trumps Smith. Colin Kaepernick defines upside & potential, and with his surprising 2-0 start in this league, the future could be now.

Although Kaepernick is a perfect 2-0 in two NFL starts, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the San Francisco 49ers with the 2nd-round pick at the helm. Clearly, Alex Smith isn’t in complete agreement with the move Harbaugh ultimately made Wednesday afternoon, naming Colin Kaepernick the starting QB.

​“I mean, it sucks,” Smith told reporters on Friday, the first time he’s spoken with the media since the decision had been made public.

“I don’t know what else to say,” he continued. “I feel the only thing I did to lose my job was get a concussion.”

If this Kaepernick experiment fails, Alex Smith must be prepared to reassume the role as starting quarterback and leader of the team, psyche and confidence fully intact. Ultimately, this could be too much to ask of the 8-year veteran. It’s simple really: if Smith’s confidence is shot, his play might be negatively affected. So was it too soon for the Kaepernick era to begin? You tell us.

On one hand, you have a proven veteran winner with an accurate arm, relatively limited skills, and a city that finally respects him. On the other hand, you have a young, unproven, inexperienced 2nd-year player with incredible physical ability, a perfect 2-0 starting record, all the potential in the world, and a city starving for a championship. Who do you start Sunday versus Rams? While you think about it, consider this:

Which do you value more: efficiency in the present or potential for the future?

Jesse Cintron (Twitter: @JesseJCintron)

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