The Betting Corner: Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

AP311845831536_70g6tzi3_8ovap3cw4-16-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Kansas City at Atlanta (Over 7)

WIN: 1 Unit – Detroit at Seattle (Over 7)

Season YTD: 20-16 +1.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-10

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 12-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-9

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-7

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A much needed sweep for the day brings us out of the red for the season.  Finally we get the better end of the stick with a few late covers.  Atlanta tacks on 3 solo shots and Detroit picks up 2 for the late wins in the 8th innings.

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1 Unit – Philadelphia at Cincinatti

After their game was postponed in the 9th in a 0-0 draw, Philly and Cincy get back at it Wednesday for game 3 of their opening series against one another.  Even on the road, the matchup favors Philadelphia so were going with them as a live underdog.

John Lannan (2.77 ERA in 2 no decisions this year) faces off against Mike Leake (6.75 ERA in 2 no decisions this year).  Leake has struggled against the Fightin’ Phils in the past holding an 0-3 mark with a 9.33 ERA in 5 starts.  Lannan on the other hand is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 4 career starts against Cincy.  We’ve seen lately too that outside of Aroldis Chapman, the Cincinatti bullpen has been struggling to get anybody out.

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Sunday, April 14th, 2013

AP369123553384ooo_uhkp30tn_hnug1zuz4-13-13 Recap:

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-125)

1 Unit – Toronto at Kansas City (-130)

2 Units – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 9 (-120)

Season YTD: 18-14 +1.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 5-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-7

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 10-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 5-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-5

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Last night was a microcosm of our season in a nutshell.  Once again we suffer from a reversion to the mean (I told you it will catch up to you).  Ian Kennedy gets lit up by the Dodgers, but it could have been avoided.  The game was going well into the 5th when a few runs were scored.  That’s fine.  I’m more concerned about the 6th inning when Kennedy gets 2 quick outs and then gives up a hit (the third of the game) to Ryu the pitcher.  Needless to say, 3 runs were scored in that inning.  A pitcher getting 3 hits in a game probably happens in less than 1% of games played.  It was all downhill from their changing the context of the game completely.  Frustrating, but all we can do is move on and keep grinding.

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1 Unit – Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

Wandy Rodriguez is out for this one and Pitt is forced to make a late call up from AAA in Phil Irwin (I’ve never heard of him either).  This is an ideal spot for Cincy to get out of the offensive rut they’re in.  No way I expect them to get swept in this one.  And with Latos on the mound who’s got a 2.84 ERA with 13 K’s in two no decisions this year (also 4-0 in 6 starts with a 2.11 ERA in his career against Pitt)

1 Unit – Colorado at San Diego (Over 8)

The way Colorado’s offense is pounding the baseball doesn’t bode well for the under in this one.  Richard has struggled against the like of Tulo, Rosario, and Helton in the past.  That and Jorge De la Rosa hasn’t been able to solve the Padres in their recent history together either.  PetCo has moved their fences in this year and it seems to have been making a difference so far compared to the pitchers park sanctuary it was last year.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Friday, April 12th, 2013

143344089_crop_exact4-11-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels (Under 8.5) (-115)

Season YTD: 14-9 +4.16 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

First tough loss of the year IMO.  Top of the 9th inning error costs us the under by 1/2 a run.  On the flip side, had it not happened, we would’ve only WON by half a run as well.  In games like that, you have to realize over a 162 game season, it’s going to happen plenty of times.  To be a successful gambler, you have be able to roll with the punches.

Friday we’ve got our first big card of the year to start off the weekend.  A handful of aces go for the third time this season.  You’ll notice the more information and starts that are in the books, the more we’ll test our luck with moneylines and runlines.

A total of 6 games Friday, and sorry but I don’t have time to re-look up all the stats for my writeups.  Just know at the time of writing this paragraph, it’s 11:46 PST and I started doing research at 10:00.

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1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)**Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)** Bet this Friday, may get better line

Pitt’s struggled all year.  Just because they have Burnett on the mound doesn’t mean they should be favored against the best in the NL Central.  Also, Leake has faired well against the Pirates in the past.

Atlanta comes into this game 8-1.  Washington is going to want to defend their home turf against the NL East rivals.  Expect this series to be a battle all year.  In this game though, the pitching matchup is by far in favor of Washington.  Anything under -140 seems like a good price for this one.

Cleveland’s had the luxury of having 2 days off.  A hot Justin Masterson takes the mound and at -135 at home, I expect the Indians to get back on track.  Quintana should be welcome sight after facing a few Yankee veterans.

The Twins have come back down to earth, but you could make the argument that so have the Mets.  At even odds, I think the combination of Niese and the NY lineup should be able to best Worley and the slumping Twin bats, even on the road.

Clayton Kershaw has yet to give up an earned run so far this year.  No reason this total should be 8, especially when his opponent in Patrick Corbin has had success against the Dodgers in the past.  Still without proof that Kershaw can get lit up this year, anything above 7 is a bet for sure in this one.

Lastly, Houston has had their moment.  Too bad for us it had to happen against Seattle.  Frankly, 2 may be their longest winning streak of the season.  This is a perfect situation for LA.  They’ve struggled, so they have no reason coming into this game to overlook the Astros.  Hanson is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his career against Houston.  Bud Norris, to say the least, struggled mightily on the road last year.  the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play is because the Angels bullpen hasn’t proven they can get anyone out yet this year.  Play it for 1.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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