The Betting Corner: MLB Sunday, April 28th, 2013

nationals_1trh92a3_t8pxw4nr4-27-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – San Francisco at San Diego (-105)

Loss: 1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle (Over 6.5)

Season YTD: 30-27 +1.07 Units

Back to the same old losing games by a thread.  San Fran blows a 5 run early lead to a team who has scored more than 5 runs in a game only 4 times all year.  2 times have been when we bet against them.  Great timing.  Is Seattle, we miss by 1 run.  Had the Angels been able to tie it up 3-3 we would have been able to cover even if it went to extras.  Big card tomorrow, not time to do any write ups though.

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1 Unit – Toronto at NY Yankees

1 Unit – Cincinnati at Washington (Under 7.5)

1 Unit – Baltimore at Oakland

1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle

1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (Under 8)

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All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: MLB Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Getty_Felix_Hernandez_up_high_in_HOU_pqe51tns_s0zn52sh4-22-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (Over 7)

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox

Season YTD: 27-20 +5.07 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 10-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-13

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-10

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We split Monday’s plays in an up and down emotional day.  We lose game 1 with the Yankees under; a game which had 6 runs scored in the first 3 and a half innings, only to result in 5 and a half shutout innings after that.  We make amends for it with a late come from behind victory in Chicago.  Asdrubal Cabrera has hopefully broke out of his early season woes (he’s on my fantasy team) with a game winning 2 out 2 run single in the top of the 8th to go up 3-2.  Just one play for Tuesday.

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1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

We go back to the Cleveland/Chicago series for a second consecutive day.  These two teams have met 4 times so far this year, hitting 3 of 4 on the under (covering by 3.5, 4, and 6.5 runs).  Chicago has been struggling to score runs of late averaging less than 2 runs per game in their last 4.  Cleveland seems to be scoring in bunches.  They’ve scored 3 or less in 3 of their last 5 with the other two coming against Houston Astros pitching (which isn’t saying much considering I saw a stat today in which I believe no starter has made it passed the 6th inning for them in like their last 7 games).

Both young pitchers have started off their 2013 campaign hot as well.  Even with a 1-2 record, Zach McAllister bolsters a 3.12 ERA.  He is however 2-0 in 4 starts against the Sox with a 2.66 ERA.  In his young career, he’s historically pitched much better on the road vs at hime with a split ERA of 3.30 away to 4.98 at home.  Quintana is coming off of 2 straight with no earned runs allowed (one was against Cleveland last week).  He’s got a 2.55 ERA with one win on the year.  Both have favorable batter/pitcher heads up matchups.  I’d prefer this one at 8.5, but it’s never going to get there.  If you’re not fast enough in betting this one, it may drop to 7.5 by game time.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 20th, 2013

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4-19-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Season YTD: 23-17 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 8-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-3

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-11

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-10

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We were on the right side in yesterdays contest.  Starting pitching went pretty much as I expected, just a few runs given up on a few home runs for each.  We really cashed in this game though when the bullpens were able to shut it down completely in the last third of the game.  We’re on that little winning streak of 5-1-1 that I promised would eventually come after a run of bad games.  Lets hope we can keep it going.

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1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

Pittsburgh has been playing well lately.  Their offense is clicking and I was unaware of this last game, but their team bullpen ERA is 6th in MLB at 2.34.  Today is going to be a pitcher’s duel whether you realize it or not.  The names Paul Maholm and James McDonald don’t exactly scream “pitcher’s duel” but when you see the statistics you’ll come to realize why Vegas set this line at 7.5.

Paul Maholm hasn’t given up an earned run this year.  Granted he’s pitched against Washington (13th), Philadelphia (15th), and Miami (30th in total runs scored 2013) so he hasn’t been tested all that much.  Maholm brings a career 4.20 ERA (3.74 and 3.54 the last 2 years with Atlanta) into todays game.  One thing to note though is that on the road he holds a 4.80 ERA, giving him a home/away spread of almost a point difference.  Don’t expect him to exit todays game with less than 3 earned runs to his name (remember that reversion to the mean that I talked about, this is where it hopefully will help us tonight).

James McDonald comes into this game with a 1-2 clip and a 5.27 ERA; hardly a line you’d want to see your pitcher have against a team who’s only lost 3 games all year.  However, against the Braves in the past 3 years, he’s 3-0 over 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA.    Oh yeah, and his home/away splits last year, 6-2 at home with a 2.73 ERA vs just 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA at home.  McDonald also holds the edge in the batter/pitcher matchups.  You could argue that this is a coin flip of a ballgame, so at +130, we’re getting a nice price in this one.

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1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Colorado’s bats have been their crutch as of late overcoming some shoddy pitching the last 5.  They shouldn’t need to score 8 in this one to secure a victory though.  Jorge De La Rosa takes the bump in his 4th start of the year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts.  In his career against Arizona however, he’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.41.  That’s quite a feat considering half those games have come in the altitude of Colorado.

His opponent in Trevor Cahill hasn’t had nearly as much success so far this year; or against the Rockies in his career for that matter. He’s 1-4 in 5 career starts against the Rockies.  This game shouldn’t be an even -110 contest.  I’ll ride the Rockies hot 5 game winning streak in this one.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

 

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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