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The Burning Questions After Four Weeks

October 5, 2013 by Leave a Comment

The Cover 4.com presents you with The Burning Questions After Four Weeks! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @thecover4 or facebook at theCo VerFour

One fourth of the NFL season is already in the books. Apart from the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers, each team has played a quarter of their games. Some teams have surprised, while other teams have wholeheartedly disappointed. There have been devastating injuries and surprising players. And god forbid, a blockbuster trade!

Before we get on to the completely arbitrary questions I made up for myself to answer, obviously four games in the NFL is an incredibly small sample size. Even 16 games is somewhat small, the Detroit Lions last year looked like a franchise on the decline at 4-12. Now in 2013, they look like a team that is almost at an elite level that could steal the NFC North from the Chicago Bears and Packers. Basically, what I am saying is all the successes or failures of your favorite teams or players should be taken with a grain of salt, so what I am going to do is try to figure out how big that grain of salt really should be.

How good are the Denver Broncos?

1380585127000-USP-NFL-Philadelphia-Eagles-at-Denver-Broncos-001Really freakin’ good. But not as good as everyone thinks. Before the pitchforks come out, let me explain: For one, their first four games were played against some god awful defenses. How bad? The “best” defense they played this year was the one that kicked off this season, against the Baltimore Ravens. Playing in the shadow of Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning was literally untouchable as he fired seven touchdowns against the defense while effectively ending anyone’s fantasy matchup before they even got to the Sunday games. After four games, the Ravens are ranked as the 11th best defense. Then there is the 16th (Oakland) and the worst two defenses in the league, the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. If you’re an advanced metrics kind of guy, it gets even worse. I’ll spare the jargon, but those four teams are even more miserable in defensive DVOA. Denver’s offense is incredible and fun to watch no doubt, but just keep that tidbit in the back of your mind as we progress through the rest of the season

hi-res-158026589_crop_650x440Secondly, the Broncos have had some devastating injuries that haven’t been exposed yet. To start off, they lost their stud left tackle Ryan Clady. Everyone tends to forget that Manning is 37 years old and only a year and a half removed from four neck surgeries. One wrong hit and he’s done for the rest of year, effectively ending the Broncos season. The offensive line thus far has only given up five sacks (sack numbers are admittedly fluky, QB pressures and knockdowns are much more telling but have not been updated as of right now). But like stated before, the defenses Denver will be playing in the future coupled with Clady’s loss is most definitely a cause for concern. On the other side of the ball Broncos fans should be a little more worrisome, as their two most dynamic defensive players still haven’t played. The ongoing Von Miller saga is not very encouraging, as well as Champ Bailey’s injury that seems either more complicated or more worse than Denver originally let on. So far, this defense hasn’t been , but with games coming up against formidable offenses, I am fairly confident this defense will be torn apart sooner rather than later.

What should I make of the Trent Richardson trade?

NFL: Preseason-Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis ColtsThis one surprised everyone, and if someone told you other wise I would be weary of a protruding wooden nose. So, why? Let’s tackle the Cleveland Browns. First, the Dawg Pound are under a new regime. Trent Richardson had Mike Holmgren blood all over his dreadlocks, and new GM Mike Lombardi wanted to start from scratch with the core he wants to keep. If you look up Richardson’s stats they are remarkably unremarkable, especially for a first round pick. So to get a first round pick for a third or fourth round talent? Everyone with a brain would take that. I personally think Richardson is overrated, but if you think he still has potential, than you probably didn’t like the trade; just keep in mind Cleveland’s o-line is above average and Richardson couldn’t do squat. Regardless, the Browns are clearly dumping every valuable asset to tank for Teddy Bridgewater or Jadaveon Clowney, except no one accounted for Brian Hoyer the Destroyer leading them to two wins which seemingly gets them out of contention for the first two picks. This franchise can’t do anything right. But seriously, expect Josh Gordon to be traded by Week 8, also.

On the Indianapolis Colts side, everyone kind of shrugged off Jim Irsay’s frantic tweets about a big deal and just assumed he was crying wolf (two fairy tale references in two paragraphs, mind you). Is it possible for me to be a fan of what both teams ended up with? The Colts are clearly all in, trying to fit as many impact players on this roster while still having an Andrew Luck contract on the books for dirt cheap. Now instead of Trent Richardson being the focus of a defense for them to shut down, he is now an afterthought compared to Luck and emerging weapons TY Hilton, Coby Fleener, and the always dependable Reggie Wayne; Richardson is finally in a place to succeed. We’ll know if he is a legit talent by the end of the season.

Let’s play the Grain of Salt game

This will be a (relatively) condensed version of the Denver Broncos section. Keep in mind, the Grain of Salt game can go both ways. For example, I think the Miami Dolphins are over achieving, so obviously I’m taking their success with a small grain of salt. But I also think the Bengals are under achieving, so I would take their poor record so far with an equally small grain of salt. Oh, you already understand how this rudimentary game works? Sorry, I didn’t mean to insult your intelligence.

new-england-patriots-nfl-training-camp-2013New England Patriots – We’re starting with them because I am an unapologetic homer. This grain of salt is relatively big. Look, I may be a homer but I am realistic. The amount of salt isn’t just because they are 4-0, it is because they are 4-0 without arguably the most dynamic tight end in the game and two rookie wide receivers who are on a crash course of learning the quirks of the NFL with an intense and screaming quarterback that would make a Marine drill sergeant blush. Their defense is stout (6th best scoring defense, 4th best DVOA) but I would be remiss to mention the absolutely devastating loss of Vince Wilfork. The Patriots are still here, but they never really left in the first place.

Cincinnati Bengals – Also mentioned above, all they need is Andy Dalton to step up. He may have gotten the benefit of the doubt by making the playoffs a lot early in his career, but under that red lettuce we’ve come to love and know might actually lay an average quarterback given a great chance to succeed. Like I mentioned in my preview, the Bengals gave him all the weapons to prove himself, and he is also backed with an above average defense to boot. This may be a ride or die season for the Red Rifle.

Jacksonville Jaguars – They would get the biggest grain of salt imaginable if this section were titled ‘The Jadaveon Clowney Grain of Salt Game’. Well, unless this comes to fruition.

Kansas-City-Chiefs-Team-Preview-2013-640x454Kansas City Chiefs – Almost everyone saw a Chiefs resurgence coming, but this team is legitimately good and will most likely snag a wild card spot with their 4-0 start. They have the second best scoring defense, but they have played a couple cupcakes. Alex Smith is doing Alex Smith things, which is not to turn the ball over and forgetting the NFL allows passes to be completed more than 20 yards down the field.

Miami Dolphins – Previously mentioned them, but I am not buying their success (or not buying their grains of salt?). Lamar Miller is a poor man’s Reggie Bush, meaning he is not a serviceable every down back but is more than capable of breaking off a big play. I like Ryan Tannehill more than I hate him, but that isn’t saying much. Their defense is right at league average, and their offense is ranked 8th in DVOA, but they are closer to the 17th best team (Oakland) than the second (Green Bay) so that is misleading at first glance.

What has gotten into Philip Rivers?

NFL: San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh SteelersAll signs point to Philip Rivers making a trip in the offseason to the Nile River and washing away all evidence of Norv Turner off his body. But in all seriousness, it is safe to say Rivers has always been the same (more or less) he just hasn’t been able to stay upright. So far in 2013, Rivers has been sacked only three times (all against Chicago) while being taken down an egregious 13 times last year through four games. The previously mentioned Norv Turner absence may have injected some much needed faith, but the tangible results point directly to the offensive line’s big improvement.

So there you have it. I tried to keep it short in terms just because of half-season power rankings coming out after Week 8, where I will break down each team’s ascension or decension from my preseason rankings. Making fun of myself will most assuredly be included.

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What should we make of the Philadelphia Eagles offense?

September 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

chip-kelly-2013-9593abc82eb2c8d8If you didn’t watch the Philadelphia Eagles versus the Washington Offensive Slurs on Monday Night Football, you definitely missed out. ESPN was relentless with its pimping of the return of RGIII, but what stole the show was Chip Kelly and Philadelphia’s supercharged offense. The plays were explosive, the formations were wacky, and I loved every minute of it. At the end of the half, the Eagles were up 26-7. Those seven  points were lucky for the Slurs, as Mike Vick threw a backwards pass inside the 10 that was returned for a touchdown. So really, it could have been 33-0. That point aside, the question begs: is this the offense of the future? Well technically, Bill Belichick already implemented it last year at times for New England, but now that the mastermind Kelly jumped to the NFL, it’s the creator himself putting it to use on the biggest stage. His offense ushers in a new era of how we think of the offense, but I don’t think the Eagles can sustain their success they had in their first game. Here’s why:

Did you notice how I only talked about the first half? Once the Eagles got out to such a comfortable lead, it would be detrimental to their goal (winning) to keep playing at a breakneck speed. Their plan should be to draw out the clock and give as little time as possible for Washington to mount a comeback. Well, the plan looked good on paper, but the Eagles couldn’t execute a simple based offense. The offense looked confused and Vick did what he usually does when he is bad: holds the ball too long and tries to make plays when they are not there. The loss of Jeremy Maclin was glaring in the second half. Philadelphia has very explosive weapons, but Vick needs a reliable receiver to go to on third down when they are in a pinch. DeSean Jackson is no doubt talented, but his talents start and end with speed and the ability to run a straight line downfield. However, the Eagles offense isn’t totally to blame. Their defense was mostly in prevent mode, which basically equates to a bend but don’t break mentality. They’ll give up the easy underneath stuff to make sure they are not burnt deep, but unfortunately they didn’t prevent much in the way of touchdowns either because the Slurs made it a game in the second half.

yahoo_michaelvicktpsThe second reason why this type of success is not sustainable for Philadelphia is Vick himself. Vick as a quarterback puts a lot on the table – but also takes a lot off of it. Kelly chose the Eagles job because his offense needs a mobile quarterback to implement its read option, and he thought he could mold Vick into the terrifying force he has the potential to be. However, his bad decision making (stretching plays, slinging balls into tight coverage and not sliding or going out of bounds and causing fumbles) and his chronic ability to get injured could cripple the offense before it even gets a chance to lift off. Given Vick’s history, this has more than a good chance of happening.

For number three, every offense introduced in this age is a fad. Look what happened to the famed Wildcat. The Patriots were completely dumbfounded(much like Washington on Monday) when the Miami Dolphins unveiled it for the first time in a regular season contest in 2008. Now the Wildcat is merely an afterthought, unless you’re Brian Schottenheimer and bring in Tim Tebow to run an offense everyone already knew how to defend two years ago. However, I’ll admit the Wildcat was more gimmicky than what Kelly is currently running. In the Wildcat, the play was predicated on a running back or wide receiver taking a direct snap or lining up in a quirky position, which is obviously not realistic for an entire game. The offense Philadelphia is running is based on receiver route trees and the read option between the quarterback and the running back, which we already know is an established wrinkle for offenses around the league. If there is a counterpoint to be had, Vick said after the game that the Eagles only ran 60% of their playbook. You can read into that as much or as little as you want.

1378817270000-USATSI-7426119Opinions aside, let’s dive into some numbers to get some objectiveness into this argument. The Eagles’ closest comparison in terms of the speediness of their offense would actually be last year’s New England Patriots. Obviously Philadelphia’s one game is about as small of a sample size as you can get, and in the grand scheme of things the 16 games that New England played last year is also a small sample size. Regardless, let’s compare the two. First off, the Patriots were first in plays per game (74) and yards per game (427.9) in 2012. Those are the only two stats I focused on because that is what everyone was talking about after the game. Against Washington, the Eagles ran 77 plays and gained 443 yards, which are better marks than New England’s average. However, some Patriots observers (admittedly, me) would say they didn’t break out their speed offense against every opponent. Taking this into account, New England ran their most amount of plays against four teams: Denver, Seattle, Miami and San Francisco. In those games, the Patriots ran an average of 85 plays for 416 yards, beating Philadelphia’s play total but not surpassing their yardage. But looking at those teams, we can deduce a couple things. For one, three out of four of those teams were elite teams last year, finishing with a winning percentage of .740 (which roughly equates to a 12-4 record). The Patriots went 1-2 in these contests, albeit losing only by a combined eight points. Also, of those previously mentioned three teams, two have elite defenses (San Francisco and Seattle) and one had an above-average defense (Denver) so obviously the Patriots realized the best way to beat these teams was to keep them on their heels. The logic is there, but the execution wasn’t.
After that onslaught of numbers, let’s recap everything that was brought up. Do I think the Eagles’ offense is sustainable? Not at the level they performed at on Monday Night Football, but I think their offense is more than just a gimmick. I also think Philadelphia can’t be as nitpicky about when to turn up its offense like the Patriots. New England’s defense wasn’t spectacular last year, but it also forced the second-most turnovers which in turn let the offense dictate the pace of play. The Eagles don’t have that luxury because their defense is horrible, so they need to score as much as possible to take the pressure off their defense. I believe in this offense, but not in the health of Vick. If Vick can stay healthy, this team has more than a respectable shot to make the playoffs, given how wide open the NFC East is. All that being said, the Kelly offense is legitimate and here to stay.

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Michael Devarenne
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College Football or Johnny Football

September 4, 2013 by Leave a Comment

heisman-johnny-manziel-football_jpeg8-1280x960The college football season kicked off this weekend and the opening week did not disappoint. In the weekend’s biggest game, Tajh Boyd and Clemson outgunned Georgia in an early season showdown. Teddy Bridgewater showed why people are talking about Louisville this season. Alabama’s special teams and defense outscored its offense. Seven FBS schools that scheduled FCS opponents for easy wins were shocked in upsets. And the most polarizing figure in college football made sure he continued to be talked about. Even though it was the first week of college football, the entire week was more about Johnny Football. Let’s look at this week in the Manziel saga.

 

 

THE SUSPENSION:   

Dez Bryant has lunch with Deion Sanders:

Suspended entire season

 

Terrelle Pryor and four other teammates sell rings, jerseys, and awards for tattoos:

Five players suspended for five games, Ohio State later receives bowl ban.

 

Reggie Bush and his family receive money from sports agents Lloyd Lake and Michael Michaels:

USC receives two-year bowl ban, reduction of 10 scholarships a year over three years, four years probation, has BCS title vacated, and Bush has his Heisman revoked.

 

Johnny Manziel allegedly sells autographed memorabilia to broker:

Half-game suspension against the Rice Owls.

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Manziel began his week by bending over the NCAA. When the news dropped about Johnny Football’s suspension, everyone was thinking the same thing: that the NCAA infractions  committee is a hollow organization that operates under no standards absent a double-standard.  Am I mad that Manziel only received a 30-minute ban despite pretty strong circumstantial evidence? No, I’m even in favor of college players being able to profit from their talents. I mean the NCAA, colleges and everyone else is profiting from them, so why shouldn’t they? Manziel is truly a once in a generation college football player. Not only can he make a joke out of opposing team defenses, he can make a joke out of college’s leading organization. Apparently, Manziel can show the weaknesses of the NCAA as easily as he shows the weakness in other defenses.

The first weakness of the NCAA is that the NCAA has the investigative prowess of Helen Keller. Texas A&M and Manziel gladly accepted the half game suspension, basically admitting that Manziel violated NCAA rules in some way. Why take a punishment if you did nothing wrong? You can’t drop the hammer on someone when you don’t even have a hammer. Everyone on the NCAA investigative committee must have been the worst hide-and-seek players of all time, because they are incapable of finding anybody. To avoid embarrassment, the NCAA had to hand down some sort of punishment after it became apparent that Manziel received money for his autograph. A&M danced at the idea of a 30-minute punishment, and the NCAA showed itself capable of slapping wrists despite a high-profile case. Once Manziel received his punishment, I’m sure he called Cam Newton and they had a good laugh about the investigative powers of the NCAA.

The next weakness is that college football marketability and profitability overrule NCAA ethics. The NCAA couldn’t afford to hand down a harsh punishment to Manziel.  Texas A&M will be playing Alabama in two weeks and every fan of college football demands Manziel to be in that game. That marquee game becomes ignored if Johnny Football doesn’t play. Big time players just don’t miss big time games. Look at the case of Newton. Newton was ruled ineligible for an entire day before being reinstated prior to the SEC Championship game and continuing to the National Championship.  Pryor and other would be suspended players were handed down their punishments prior to Ohio State’s appearance in the Sugar Bowl. The NCAA however ruled that the players’ suspensions wouldn’t begin until AFTER the big-time game. The supposed ethical standards that the NCAA pursues can take a backseat when money comes into the picture. But hey, what can you expect from an organization that had Paul Dee as its committee on infractions chairman. Yes, the same Paul Dee that was athletic director of Miami during the Nevin Shapiro scandal (in which Miami players received benefits such as cash, prostitutes, parties and even an abortion) was the chairman of the committee that handed USC its crippling suspension. I don’t know if any of these people should be preaching about ethical standards.

THE GAME:

Manziel began and ended the game against Rice in timeout. Manziel served his suspension in the first half of the game and entered the second half with his team up by a touchdown. Manziel did exactly what everyone expected him to do once in the game. Manziel completed 6 of 8 passes for 94 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also scrambled for 19 yards on 6 carries. You can’t find much to complain about when a guy scores three touchdowns in a quarter-and-a-half. This is Johnny Football we’re talking about though, there has to be something for people to argue about. Manziel didn’t disappoint as he proceeded to talk shit to a Rice player and then point to the scoreboard, earning himself an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in the process. He then proceeded to arrogantly walk by his coach and take a spot on the bench. Matt Joeckel went back in for the final series of the game but you can’t argue that this is Manziel’s team.

Manziel is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football and he knows it. He’s arrogant, egotistical and young. At the same time he’s a great leader, team player and aggressive. This young quarterback has the entire nation forming an opinion about him. Manziel’s teammate best expressed why people love him after the Rice game.  A&M tackle Cedric Ogbuehi said, “He’s a fiery guy; that’s what we love about him. He’s not quiet. He’s not shy. He’s going to be loud and aggressive, and that’s what makes him Johnny Football.” Manziel’s aggressive, loud and in-your-face personality has won him millions of fans. Johnny Football is living the dream of every college guy. He’s a top quarterback, a celebrity and does pretty much whatever he wants. If you told me I was the best player in college football at the age of 19, I’d probably make some poor decisions too.

The same antics that have won over millions, have condemned him in the minds of millions of other fans.  They see him as a careless, selfish and pompous young kid given the Heisman too early. No matter your opinion, nobody can argue the fact that everyone is completely fascinated by Johnny Football. College football fans around the world will tune in to see what happens next in the Manziel saga and watch him play. Love him or hate him, you can’t escape him. He’s at the very center of the college football universe and there is no bigger story. It’s early in the season and all we need to do is sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride that is Johnny Football. College football is Manziel’s world right now, the rest of us are just part of it.

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NFL Power Rankings: The Race for the Lombardi

September 2, 2013 by Leave a Comment

NFL-Power-Rankings

Well, the NFL season is almost upon us. In 2013, you would have to try really hard to avoid any type of coverage on upcoming season. This season looks to be a doozy (as always) with a bunch of storylines that are both extremely interesting and extremely annoying because it has been replayed over and over again (the Robert Griffin saga and the New York Jets sitcom).  Before I present to you my nfl power rankings, I should mention that the entire team’s preseason play had no effect on their placement. However, I do pay attention to individual performance and think that is something tangible that carries over to the regular season. So without further ado, here we go:

Seattle-Seahawks-Wallpaper1. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks claim the metaphorical throne of the inaugural 2013 NFL Power Rankings. They may have lost Percy Harvin before he actually got to see real action on the field for them, but almost all of the teams in the top 5 have suffered significant injuries/suspensions before the season even started. Speaking of suspensions, let’s hope the Seahawks stingy defense stays away from the deer antler spray and other performance enhancers. Just blame it on the Adderall, though. That little tangent aside, Russell Wilson should look to improve in his second season at quarterback, even if he might not put up as good of numbers he did in his rookie campaign. This team is solid all the way through.

49ers-Logo-Red2. San Francisco 49ers

What a competitive division. I gave the Seahawks the slight edge because I think their defense is a little bit better well rounded. San Fran lost their safety Dashon Goldson to free agency and cornerback Chris Culliver to injury, depleting their secondary. Additionally, the 49ers are in a similar predicament with their star wideout, Michael Crabtree, who is also out for an extended period of time. I am expecting Colin Kaepernick to develop into a better, more complete quarterback just like Wilson. Don’t get me wrong, the 49ers are an awesome team despite me picking nits with their secondary. On paper Seattle might be the better team, but if these two teams come face to face in the playoffs, it will be a toss up.

download (2)3. Denver Broncos

I thought the Broncos were overrated last season. After having the toughest first five games in the league, they had a ridiculous cupcake-y schedule the rest of the way through. But this is 2013, and I think Denver is going to be really good. No matter how much Wes Welker has left in the tank, that signing was great. Their running game should be better also, because I think Manning knows the ideal times to rush with his amazing ability to read defenses and adapt. If he can make Knowshon Moreno look good, I’m pretty sure Montee Ball/Ronnie Hillman will be fine. The big problem I have with them is their defense. Even if Champ Bailey continues to defy Mother Nature’s aging process, losing the NFL’s second best defender (Von Miller) for six games is a glaring hole; not to mention the whole Elvis Dumervil contract disaster. Even though I like the Kansas City Chiefs as a bounce back team this year, the Broncos have a very easy road to another division title and possible first round bye.

Atlanta-Falcons-Fantasy-Football-Podcast4. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons just re-signed quarterback Matt Ryan, who is in the prime of his career. Needless to say, their window to win is now. The knock on Atlanta is that they can’t win the big game, which they somewhat proved wrong last year but not completely. People tend to forget San Francisco got just a couple more breaks to go their way to make it to the Super Bowl. Everyone knows how potent and capable this offense is, so I won’t go into that with much detail though I will say I liked the Steven Jackson signing. The offense will have to lead this team to the big game, because the defense certainly will not. They took a step back this year; losing their best pass rusher (John Abraham) and losing a serviceable corner (Dunta Robinson) which depletes their already suspect secondary. Asante Samuel is nice, but he can barely tackle a scarecrow. This team is almost a 100% guaranteed playoff lock, but it will be up to Matt Ryan to see how far they go once they get there.

download (3)5. Green Bay Packers

Notice a trend? The NFC is stacked. The conference has three out of the four most promising young quarterbacks in the game, and they also boast the best one in the league. Aaron Rodgers should look to have another MVP caliber season. Everyone knows Randall Cobb is the new breakout star, softening the blow of losing Greg Jennings to the division rival Minnesota Vikings. They also drafted running back Eddie Lacy, who unfortunately slimmed down after training camp and limited my ability to draw comparisons with my ‘Eddy Curry is overweight’ jokes. No matter, now that they have some semblance of a running game, this offense should be better than their 2012 version. Another NFC trend: great offense, mediocre defense. Of the four teams in the top five, the Packers have it the worst. Who knows if they’ll be able to stop the vaunted read option after sending all their personnel to Texas A&M to be better acquainted with that type of offense. We’ll see if they improve, but this defense doesn’t impress me.

New_England_Patriots6. New England Patriots

Full disclosure: I’m a huge Pats fan. But it should be known that I was trying to decide rankings it was basically a coin flip between them and the Baltimore Ravens, until I realized this was the regular season power rankings. The Ravens always seem to have the Patriots’ number, but I think New England is ultimately the better team. Everyone loves to talk about their offense, so you probably already know the details about it. My two cents: people are overreacting to letting Welker walk, and New England’s offense will adapt as they always do. Their rookie wide receivers will hit a few speed bumps as expected, but with Tom Brady under center they will be just fine. To their defense, real quick: I think they will be better than people expect. The lynchpin of this is Alfonzo Dennard, however. If he misses time due to violating his probation, it moves Devin McCourty to 2nd corner (he’s much better as a safety) and forcing either incompetent Tavon Wilson or unproven rookie Duron Harmon to safety.

download (4)7. Baltimore Ravens

At first glance, you think their defense has taken a big step back. Granted, they let Darnell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger go and the loss of their two defensive leaders Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are obviously huge. But they still have Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata and lost amidst their Super Bowl run was the massive blow of losing Ladarius Webb early in their season. Additionally, the Ravens are known for having bench and situational players step up big when they’re promoted to full time. Know how I know that? Because Kruger and Ellerbe just got a ridiculous amount of money to play for the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins, respectively. For their offense, people are overreacting to the loss of Anquan Boldin. Not taking away from his fantastic postseason, but his regular season was remarkably average. The loss of Dennis Pitta is huge because he was Joe Flacco’s security blanket, but the offense as a whole should be fine assuming there are no significant injuries.

download (5)8. Houston Texans

Again, this is regular season rankings. I like the Texans, but they aren’t going far if Gary Kubiak doesn’t stop being stubborn about sticking to his offensive gameplan regardless of how the game is going. That aside, Houston drafted DeAndre Hopkins who should look to finally compliment All-Pro Andre Johnson lined up across from him. Owen Daniels is a good tight end and Arian Foster is Arian Foster. Matt Schaub is an above average QB. I’m not sure he can win you a Super Bowl, but he can certainly lead this team to 11-12 wins in a weak AFC South. Their defense is still above average, even though they lost Glover Quin. Ed Reed is obviously a big name but it is unknown how much he has left in the tank. JJ Watt will still continue to wreak havoc, which will always make this team dangerous on the defensive end.

download (6)9. Chicago Bears

I like the Bears a lot this year and will be a very strong wild card team (same division as Packers). I think Jay Cutler is primed for a big year this year for a couple reasons. One is that he’s in a contract year, but also he has a new offensive coordinator (and head coach). I’m assuming that means Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 194 times, which is absurd. Everyone knows how good Chicago’s defense is, even if less intelligent people are convinced they won’t be the same without Brian Urlacher. He was a shell of his former self the last couple years, so it’s not that big of a loss. The biggest question mark of this team is if their offensive line can improve to even be a league-average line.

download (7)10. Cincinnati Bengals

Yep, the Bengals! Did you know they had the 8th best scoring defense last year? You already know they have Geno Atkins (who is threatening to be overrated because of how many people love to call him underrated) but they also have a solid secondary and an underrated linebacker core. However, Andy Dalton needs to step up in a massive way. This organization surrounded him with enough weapons to make it out of the first round of the playoffs at least, and if can’t show he has what it takes, this team isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

The-Washington-Redskins-Whats-In-A-Name11. Washington Redskins

By the time I started writing this, Robert Griffin III is confirmed a go for Week 1. Obviously he is the entire key to this team, so let’s move on. Alfred Morris is a great story, but he is definitely a product of Mike Shanahan’s running scheme. Regardless, that is incredible value at the 6th round. Their defense is average, but they virtually played the entire season with elite pass rusher Brian Orakpo. Paired along side Ryan Kerrigan, this pass rush is one of the best in the league.

Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I love this team. Couple reasons: Josh Freeman is in a contract year, and I think he has some serious potential. An overlooked storyline last year was that Tampa Bay lost their two best lineman early in the season, making Doug Martin’s already impressive rookie year last year even more legitimate. A certainly well discussed storyline was their acquisition of Darrelle Revis, a trade I would make 100 times out of 100. Also they signed Dashon Goldson, albeit at a pretty high clip but give them credit for fixing the weakest spot on their team.

download (9)13. New Orleans Saints

Man, another stacked conference in the NFC. Sean Payton is going to make a huge difference to this team and Drew Brees and all his awesomeness doesn’t need to be rehashed here. This defense is pretty miserable, but I am also pretty confident that their offense will be able to cover for their mistakes and missteps.

 

new_york_giants_wallpaper_by_pasar3-d2xuv6014. New York Giants

The reason this team isn’t higher is because they are not a good a regular season team, historically. Eli Manning will be his normal, hot & cold self. This defense, who has an above average defense line and secondary, also has an atrocious linebacker core that could end up being their Achilles heel.

 

download (8)15. Indianapolis Colts

This team is a popular pick for a regression season, for good reason. They exceeded their Pythagorean expectation by 3.8 wins (you can read more about that here) and should fall into the 8-8, maybe 9-7 category. Pushing stats aside though, this team does have a fight in them, winning numerous close games last year because Andrew Luck is the real deal. Despite the evidence pointing towards a regression, they certainly didn’t help their case by making questionable free agent signings (Erik Walden and the marshmellow man LaRon Landry)

images16. Kansas City Chiefs

Alas, we are halfway through the rankings. Are you surprised by my pick of the Chiefs? Don’t be, I think this team is legit. Everyone points to the Andy Reid signing as a big event, which it is, but I think this is a secondary point. The upgrade from the Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn debacle to slightly above average Alex Smith could be potentially huge (as Bill Barnwell explains). Besides, he has Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. The defense is really good also, their 2-13 record was more of a product of their quarterback play, or lackthereof.

17. Minnesota Vikings minnesota-vikings

The Vikings season hinges on Christian Ponder. He’s a tough read as a signal caller, considering Minnesota handedly beat Green Bay last year as Ponder scored all their touchdowns that game. And then there’s the other Ponder that we are typically used to. He doesn’t have Percy Harvin this year, who was an early MVP candidate before he got hurt. Adrian Peterson is great, but there is almost no way he replicates his year from last year. For the defense, long time cornerback Antoine Winfield isn’t there anymore, and their linebacking core is spotty. We’ll see if they hold up.

download18. Dallas Cowboys

Ah yes, the Cowboys. What a miserably run franchise. Anywho, let’s push their playoff drought out of our minds for a second and focus on the regular season. Although the new 100 million man Tony Romo led the league in interceptions last year, he also led the league in comebacks in 4th quarter with five. Jason Witten is still his same old All-Pro self, and Dez Bryant is emerging as a legitimate top 5 wideout. Their defense is another story, though. Sean Lee is back, who is an underrated linebacker. DeMarcus Ware is also a premier pass rusher, but that’s where the praise stops. The rest of this defense is bloated with bad contracts and replacement level players at critical positions. I think America’s Team misses the playoffs again this year though.

Pittsburgh-Steelers-Emblem19. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are one or two seasons away from being a full blown mess. We saw last year how abysmal they can be without Ben Roethlisberger, and even if I believe that Mike Wallace is badly overrated his loss is still big. As of right now, Heath Miller is on the PUP list also; a favorite target of Big Ben’s in the redzone. Can Emmanuel Sanders be a number one receiver? I don’t think so, but Steelers fans should certainly hope so. Even worse than their offense is their rapidly aging defense. Troy Polamalu is a shell of his former self and their once feared linebacker group is also showing its age. Bad times this year, but even worse years in the future for the Steel Curtain.

St_Louis_Rams20. St. Louis Rams

I like the Rams, but they are stuck in a very good division. Tavon Austin is as safe of a bet as you can get for a rookie playmaker, but we know what we’re getting with Sam Bradford: a slightly above average quarterback. Their running game has the chance to be good or be really bad with two young guns platooning.

 

Miami-Dolphins21. Miami Dolphins

Miami went on a big spending spree this offseason, paying big bucks to the previously mentioned Wallace and Ellerbe. Interesting decisions to say the least, because they let Reggie Bush walk to free agency and he was big for them last year. Their defense is better than people give them credit for; Cameron Wake is a beast but they did lose Sean Smith, a pretty reliable cornerback.

DetroitLions22. Detroit Lions

The Lions were absolutely putrid last year for all the talent they have. Obviously we all know about Charles Rogers Roy Williams Mike Williams Calvin Johnson, but they also finally got a running back (Bush) to help out Matt Stafford. Their defensive line is awesome but the rest of their defense is pretty bleak. This team doesn’t move up in the rankings until they smarten up and stop taking dumb unsportsmanlike conduct penalities.

Carolina_Panthers23. Carolina Panthers

This is a tricky team. As always, their success or lack thereof depends on their quarterback, Cam Newton. The talent is there, but the intangibles are not. He’s not a leader on the field, and that inevitably grounds the Panthers from being successful. On top of that, this team is bloated with bad contracts and that hinders them from being more successful. Like Newton, you can see the potential in this team but it isn’t going to come to fruition this year.

download (1)24. Philadelphia Eagles

Oh boy. I don’t necessarily hate the Eagles, but I know a lot of people like to make a hobby out of it. I will admit though they deserve everything they got last year, after that bonehead Vince Young painted a target on his team’s back with the “dynasty talk”. The nightmare of Nnamdi Asomugha is over, but their defense is still awful. Worse yet, that’s not even their Achilles heel. That would be their offensive line; and if it’s not improved this team is going absolutely nowhere. Chip Kelly is probably a good offensive coach, but if the line can’t block it doesn’t matter what offense he has the Eagles run.

arizona-cardinals125. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals’ record this year will not reflect the talent of this team because the division they are in is so good. But much like the Chiefs, the fact that even a competent quarterback is under center instead of the train wreck of last year is a big jump. However, the Chiefs have a great offensive line while the Cardinals are the complete opposite. Arizona’s defense is top notch, and will keep them in a lot of games and not force Carson Palmer to play above his talent level.

Tennessee_Titans26. Tennessee Titans

As we get to the bottom feeders of the NFL, you start to see a pattern. Much like the Panthers, this team has some bad contracts. Chris Johnson is a good running back, but I can assure you he’s not worth $13 million a year. The Shonn Greene signing was just an atrocious decision, excuse me because I just threw up my lunch thinking about it. I like Jake Locker as a QB, but he’ll never be anything more than a league average signal caller.

Cleveland_Browns_PHelmet27. Cleveland Browns

Surprisingly, Brandon Weeden had a pretty good end of the year last year. I’m not trying to vouch for him, because anytime you can draft a 29 year old quarterback in the first round you have to pull the trigger (kidding). Regardless, they’re under new management and are off to a solid start. They admittedly overpaid for Paul Kruger; but when you are the Browns you don’t have much say in free agents to start rebuilding with.

SanDiegoChargers28. San Diego Chargers

Alright, last five. Philip Rivers fell off the map fast, and the team did as well. Ryan Mathews is a walking porcelain doll, and despite some well known names, the wide receivers produced terribly last year. Their defense is entirely forgettable save for Eric Weddle who is criminally underrated. Thank me later for sparing you a Manti Te’o joke.

 

Buffalo_Bills29. Buffalo Bills

Not much to say here. Their pick of EJ Manuel was curious, but it wasn’t as preposterous as people made it out to be. CJ Spiller is a nice player, but I am dubious of him replicating his great year last year. Their defense has some bright spots (Mario Williams and Jairus Byrd) but as a whole the unit is below average.

 

NewYorkJets30. New York Jets

I hope everyone is as sick of the Jets as I am, so let’s power through this. The Jets are straight up awful. A once respectable defense has lost their top cornerback, and they resigned above average players to salaries that paid them like stars. Now they’re old and slow and overpaid with no end in sight. Obviously it gets worse, because their offense is almost impossible to watch. Everyone loves to bash Mark Sanchez; but seriously can New York throw him a bone and get him some weapons to work with? They’re under the impression that Santonio Holmes is actually good, and Dustin Keller (Sanchez’s security blanket) is gone. This is going to be another miserable season for them.

Jacksonville_Jaguars31. Jacksonville Jaguars

This is Blaine Gabbert’s year. If he’s successful, then it will be his job for the future. If he plays like, well, Blaine Gabbert, then we’ll probably be seeing Teddy Bridgewater suit up for the Jags next season. Besides that little storyline, I can’t think of one other topic involved with this team that warrants a mention.

 

oakland-raiders32. Oakland Raiders

Jadeveon Clowney, step right up! God, where to start? By all accounts Matt Flynn should be charged for robbery because his 480 yards 6 TD passes on the Packers was the biggest fluke of the century. So Terrelle Pryor step right up as the Raiders QB? Sorry you are being subjected to this. All joking aside, GM Reggie McKenzie is doing the best he can, by signing cheap veteran players and rebuilding through the draft which is the right way to do it. This team is going to be bad for a while, but if McKenzie can push all the right buttons, relevance could be in the future for Raider Black.

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So that concludes the 2013 NFL Power Rankings. There was some praise for the top organizations, but definitely more uncalled for jokes about teams. The NFL is the definition of parity so after a couple weeks there could be some major moves either up or down on this list. Anyways, let’s hope this upcoming season is one to remember and thanks for reading.

 

 

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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 7 Jun 20, 2013

June 20, 2013 by 1 Comment

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat 9PM (ET) ABC

(Series Tied 3-3)

San-Antonio-Spurs-VS-Miami-Heat-Wallpaper-HD-2013As a sports fan, today is the day that we all look forward to: a winner take all, Game 7 finals game. Nothing is more thrilling, exciting, nerve-wracking, and heart clenching than the last game of the season for all the marbles. At the end of today, we will have a NBA Champion.

After one of the best playoff games in recent history, it is now or never for the aging Spurs and the Heat. Tim Duncan dominated the first half of Game Six with 25 points but was held to just 5 in the third quarter by a stingy Miami defense. Lebron James played like a man possessed in the fourth quarter and overtime.

In today’s matchup, the major factor will be the coaches. Let’s be honest and admit that in the NBA coaches aren’t as important than in other sports- except for today. Spoelstra and Popovich have been in a chess match all series long. With a majority of the population questioning Popovich’s decision making in the fourth quarter, it is now or never for the Spurs.

Miami must be able to get points from Wade and the role players. Bosh, who has taken a beating all playoff long, must play even better than he did last game. Lebron James will not be stopped and will continue to dominant the game.

For the Spurs, Manu Ginobili is the key. After being inserted into the starting lineup for Game 5, Ginobili flat out balled. In Game 6, he was the worst player on the court posting a -21 +/- and finishing with 8 turnovers.

NBA Finals Game 7 Prediction: Spurs +6

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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 6 Jun 18, 2013

June 17, 2013 by Leave a Comment

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat 9PM (ET) ABC

(San Antonio Leads 3-2)

945206_10151571486403463_897263452_nWith the Spurs on the cusp of finals glory, the Miami Heat must pull out all the stops if they want to send this series to a game 7. Currently the Heat are an astonishing 7-0 on games after a loss. Lebron and Co. seem to know how to get it done when its all on the line. The real question though is if the Heat can win back to back games, something they haven’t done this postseason.Although these stats look very good from afar, don’t count out the veteran Spurs. With the insert of Ginobili into the starting lineup, the Spurs have add the extra offensive spark they need to keep the Heat guessing on defense. If the Heat want to tie up the series they must play with the same physical pressure and heart as they did in game 4 otherwise the Spurs franchise will be a perfect 5-0 in the NBA finals. For the Spurs, keep the offensive pressure up for 4 qtrs with Green, Parker, and Ginobili as well as find a way to limit the big 3 to mediocre performances. Finally, this game will come down to, as it has every game in this series, defensive intensity and “superstar” play. With the current trend pointing to Miami now and the 7-0 post loss stat, I am going against my typical behavior and reflecting back on games 1 and 2 where the high spread favored the dog and taking the points.

Play:
Spurs +7.5
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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 5 Jun 16, 2013

June 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs 8PM (ET) ABC

(Series Tied 2-2)

nba_u_heatspurs_ESPNNow that the first four games have been played with no team breaking away in this series, we are down to a best of 3. With the resurgence of Dwayne Wade playing like the old “flash” again, the Spurs must now find an answer to this new threat. Based of the current trend we are seeing in this series spurs-heat-spurs-heat, the ball is now in San Antonio’s court to make a move. A loss for either team could prove to be the series but especially for Miami, where they lost in a game 5 two seasons ago to Dallas, and then ultimately lost the series. In a must win for both teams, two questions must be answered:  Which supposed slump or injury plays a factor more? Which Dwade and Tony Parker are we going to get in this game? After debating which way I wanted to go in this one, this stat is what persuaded me decide on my pick. In game 5s, in the NBA finals, the Spurs are 2-0 in the big 3 era. Since the same players for the most part who played in those series still play for the Spurs currently, as well as the trend say San Antonio, ill take the points at home in this one.

Play:
Spurs +2
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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 4 Jun 13, 2013

June 13, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs 9PM (ET) ABC

(Spurs lead series 2-1)

130606110847-nba-finals-2013-big-three-miami-heat-san-antonio-spurs-single-image-cutAfter two back to back blow outs by both teams, the Spurs have proven they can contend with the defending champs. With the Spurs role players outperforming the Heat’s superstars last game, Miami will have to again pull something extraordinary in game 4 to even the series back to 2 a piece. This game has yielded a few news lines so far which should make this game very intriguing to watch. Some of these are: How will Tony Parker’s hamstring hold up? Will Miami continue its 6-0 streak after a loss? Which big 3 will step up? Where did this Danny Green fellow come from? Is Chris Bosh ever going to play like a star in the playoffs (My Favorite)? Now I know what you are all thinking, this guys sees stats that are very persuasive and goes for it. Well until these stats are proven to be a “non factor” which they apparently aren’t until I say something about it, then I go with the numbers. Heat roll tonight and find a way to steal one on the road.

Play:
Miami +2
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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 3 Jun 11, 2013

June 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs 9PM (ET) ABC

(Series Tied 1-1)

969343_10151572973928463_1713121083_nGame 3, which determines who wins the series 90+% of the time, will be one for the ages. For one team in this bout, this will be the game that turns the tide and places them one step closer to the championship. With the Heat and Spurs both tied at one a piece, this game will be a battle. For the Heat to take the firm grip back in this series, they must get production from the Big 3 (mainly Bosh and Wade) and continue to have Allen, Miller, and Haslem to provide a secondary scoring option as they did in game 2. For the Spurs, they need to have Parker to continue his inside penetration and either have Green or Splitter to step up and provide balance to the Spurs superstar play. The keys to tonight’s game will be who controls the turnover battle and the boards. Although the game is shifting back to San Antonio and a potential momentum swing back in the Spurs favor, I see this game going down to the wire. Quoting Brian Windhorst,”there is something about Miami in game 3s on the road. They won against Indiana, Chicago, and Milwaukee this postseason”. With that said I’ll take the points on the road.

Play:
Miami +2
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The Betting Corner: NBA Finals Game 2 Jun 9, 2013

June 9, 2013 by 2 Comments

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat 8PM (ET) ABC

(San Antonio Leads 1-0)

936031_633624763323036_1689835067_nAfter a phenomenal last 30 seconds of game 1, the Miami Heat find themselves in a 0-1hole. Watching this game and the post game press conference, I see the Heat’s ability to dominate at home slipping away from them and the attitude toward struggling teammates during the game intensify. The Spurs on the other hand are thriving on Miami’s mishaps. If they can continue to pressure Lebron and force the rest of the Heat to win games with role players, they have a great shot to bring another title to San Antonio. The key to tonight’s game will be the affectiveness of Dwayne Wade on both fronts and Tony Parker’s ability to drive to the basket. If one of these occur, we could see an evened up series on out hands or a potential sweep on the horizon. With much needed rest and playing at home in a must win game 2 for Miami, I see the Heat winning by double digits here on a heroic Lebron performance.

Play:
Miami -6
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