The Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

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The Cover 4.com presents you with The Week 8 NFL Power Rankings! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @thecover4 or facebook at theCo VerFour

Well, we are already halfway through the 2013 NFL season. Just like any season in football, it has been filled with pleasant surprises and surprising disappointments. If your favorite team is not playing its best, do not fret because a lot can happen the next eight weeks.

Depending on what you think of commissioner Roger Goodell (probably nothing good), you have to give him credit for keeping this league fair and full of parity through various means. You can basically separate the league into three different tiers based on winning percentage, but even then different teams from different tiers blend together due to strength of schedule and/or good and bad breaks in games (Tampa Bay, as bad it is, should have at least one win).  You’d be hard pressed to find someone who isn’t for parity in professional sports, unless you are me and how it is my job to attempt to rank these teams effectively. Four weeks in, the Denver Broncos seemed to be the clear cut No. 1 team. After the last two weeks, perhaps the gap isn’t as quite as large as we thought. Either way, after I name the team and its rank, in parenthesis will be the amount of spots they climbed or fell from my preseason rankings. This part will be especially funny when we get to TampaBay or the New York Giants. After that, I’ll give a brief explanation on why I put them there, and either me defending why I thought they would be good or me making fun of myself as I pull quotes from my late August column. Let’s get to it.

1. Denver Broncos (+2)

Through four weeks, Peyton Manning and the Broncos were the talk of the town with the most prolific offensive start in the history of the NFL. Armed with so many weapons, Manning looked unstoppable as he was dinking and dunking his way to the record books. The Broncos looked solid on defense even if they were doing it without the second-best defensive player in football, Von Miller, and their best cornerback, Champ Bailey. Well, a loss to the Indianapolis Colts and slow starts against the Washington Racial Slurs (in the first half) and Dallas Cowboys stopped their incredible progress and may have shown a blueprint on how to beat them, by targeting their weak offensive line and playing physical, hard-nosed defense. Using that strategy come December and January, and add in Peyton’s terrible cold temperature record in the playoffs (0-4 in games under 40 degrees), this team will roll through the regular season but might be more exposed than people expect come playoff time.

2. Seattle Seahawks (-1)

This team is probably best fit to beat the Broncos in the postseason (or Super Bowl, considering conference), and not just because it’s ranked second. The Seahawks have the punishing defense whose best asset is their secondary and a coolheaded quarterback who knows the best way to beat Denver is to not let them on the field. This team will always be in the top three, just because they are amazingly well balanced. Great defense, and good distribution of when to throw and when to hand it off to feature back Marshawn Lynch.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+13)

We have our first double-digit jump! The Chiefs were the sexy pick in preseason to bounce back from a morbid 2-14 season last year, but no one could have predicted an 8-0 start. This team is your best bet to beat Denver in the AFC playoffs, only because it’s a slightly lesser version of the Seahawks. Kansas City’s defense is playing just as well as Seattle’s if not better, but the fall off is on the offensive side of the ball. Say what you want about Andy Reid’s game management (if you give me some time, I can say a lot) but this season he has remained relatively mistake free. Whether that is a fluke, it is nonetheless encouraging. Alex Smith is another great game manager, but just a step below Russell Wilson. He has conference championship experience, and can utilize weapons to overcome his shortcomings. The Chiefs defense, combined with the slow and plodding offense but sudden playmaking ability of Jamaal Charles, presents an underrated challenge to the Broncos.

4. Indianapolis Colts (+14)

The Colts made an even bigger jump than the Chiefs. I wrote about them last week, and how Andrew Luck is a one man regression fighter. In my preseason preview, I said the numbers pointed to the Colts overachieving last season and were bound to come down to earth, but this team is still very good because of who is under center. Well, I was half right. Surely, I didn’t expect them to beat the San Francisco 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks, all of which are incredible wins. One win is a fluke, two you might get lucky, but three wins against three teams in the (spoiler alert) top seven? That demands attention, and respect.

5. New Orleans Saints (+8)

With my initial ranks, the knock against the Saints was never against Drew Brees and his jolly band of bit piece scorers (besides Jimmy Graham) because Marques Colston is taking a fall vacation. I didn’t underestimate the return of Sean Payton either, who now has cemented himself as a top-three coach in the NFL with the dramatic turnaround from last season. Nope, I was dubious of how improved this defense could be under an obese homeless man Rob Ryan. Ryan, compensating for a (still) subpar defense by relentlessly blitzing (without “additional” instructions) has turned the Saints into an overall respectable force for which to be reckoned.

6. San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Through eight weeks, yes, the Saints are better than the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick looks lost without his wingman Michael Crabtree, and Anquan Boldin has not only come back to Earth, but may have tunneled half a mile underground after his hot start in the beginning of the season. Kaepernick is still a good quarterback, although he has been getting a lot of flak for his play, some of it undeserving. The defense has absorbed its fair share of losses, but nothing more significant than any other team. This team can still and will do damage come playoff time, and probably from the wild card spot which presents an interesting dynamic in the NFC playoff picture.

7. Green Bay Packers (-2)

This team moved back two spots just by the detriment of the Chiefs and Colts surprising me. Textbook Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers, lose your primary tight end (Jermichael Finley) and your main offensive weapon (Randall Cobb), your go to man in offseason (Greg Jennings) and your offense doesn’t miss a beat. The Packers will keep finding random wide receivers to fill in for them until they call me to suit up and I put up a 1,000 yard season. Their defense is average at best, but only needs to do enough to keep it close for Rodgers.

8. Detroit Lions (+14)

Another double-digit jump and we are still in the top 10. I said before the season this team doesn’t jump in my rankings “unless they smarten up on defense” and last time I checked Ndamukong Suh did not try to stomp on anyone’s private parts this season and their head coach hasn’t tried to fight another head coach yet in 2013. Their wins aren’t terribly impressive, but their defense does enough for them to win, which was my primary concern with them (Suh jokes aside).

9. Cincinnati Bengals (+1)

I was particularly high on the Bengals coming in. I still like them, but not as much as I did. They probably would’ve been bumped out of my top 10 (for whatever that’s worth) before Week 8, but then Andy Dalton threw five TD passes and I noticed he has actually strung together a nice set of games recently. If he can sustain his success and build on it, this is probably the fourth-best team coming out of the AFC if you factor in their stingy defense (although losing cornerback Leon Hall hurts).

10. New England Patriots (-4)

The Patriots fall from grace could be easy to blame on the injuries they’ve suffered; namely Jerrod Mayo, Aqib Talib (game to game), Vince Wilfork, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Amendola, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski. But it started earlier than that, when New England’s calculated risk of letting Wes Welker go ultimately backfired when they surrounded the visibly aging Tom Brady with subpar weapons to work with on offense. Even through eight weeks, this could already be chalked up to a lost season considering their significant losses and Brady’s surprising impotency under center.

11. Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Is it just me, or is this the first Super Bowl champion in the new era of technology to fly under the radar? I feel like I still can’t get a read on this team, nor do I care. Ray Rice got hit with the Shaun Alexander bug, rendering him pretty unthreatening and looking older than his age. His and Flacco’s contracts have hamstrung this team’s cap space, even if they have solid defensive players sprouting up like weeds to plug holes in their defense.

12. Dallas Cowboys (+6)

How ‘bout them Cowboys? I am at the point of feeling bad for them, and in particular Tony Romo. I will not defend Romo here, but the man just can not win. The Cowboys will always be a dangerous team, but I’ve been saying their poor mismanagement of their roster will always drag them down. Luckily, a recent article by Bill Barnwell can explain that much better than I can if you want the real breakdown.

13. Carolina Panthers (+9)

Last year, the Panthers probably lost two or three games due to their incompetent head coach Ron Rivera. Terrible in-game management and failure to pounce on calculated but aggressive decisions, it seemed like this team was already doomed from the start for its 2013 campaign. But Rivera opened his eyes and realized he had the best short yardage back (Cam Newton), despite their very pricey backfield. If the Panthers can add a legit receiving threat and get a worthy starter for their defense, this team has the potential to be dangerous next year.

14. San Diego Chargers (+14)

Boy, what a difference an offensive line does for a quarterback. Philip Rivers is looking good, Ryan Mathews hasn’t exploded into a million little glass pieces and the Chargers might look better than their 4-3 record suggests. They fell apart against Houston, lost to Oakland with that funky 11:30 p.m. Sunday night start time and lost another close game to Tennessee. They are a dark horse to grab a wild card spot.

15. Miami Dolphins (+6)

In the preview, I said both the offense and defense didn’t really improve, but moved more sideways despite them bringing in some well-known names. Although Mike Wallace has yet to answer the call, the Dolphins have been plodding along due to their stingy defense. They have lost four in a row, but wins and losses do not tell the whole story.

16. Tennessee Titans (+10)

I was surprised by the Titans success so far this season. Their last three games before their bye were especially tough; they faced KC, Seattle and San Francisco and managed to keep the first two close contests. That’s pretty much all you can hope for from a middling team.

17. Chicago Bears (-8)

Much like New England, this drop is due more to injuries than anything else. Losing Jay Cutler is obviously huge, but losses to the defensive line and Lance Briggs can not be overlooked, either. If Cutler can return in a timely fashion, this team is poised to make a late season run if the NFC North is still available for the taking, or at worst a wild card spot.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (+6)

I think we know by now that Chip Kelly’s offense is legit. I wrote earlier in the season that the key to their offense is Mike Vick’s health, and right now that situation looks pretty grim. This team is bound to drop in the rankings by the end of the season, just because they are forced to put Matt Barkley and Nick Foles under center. But if Kelly gets a quarterback he wants in this year’s draft that can effectively run his offense, watch out for the Eagles next year.

19. Washington Racial Slurs (-8)

I think it is safe to say that Robert Griffin came back too early. He looks uncomfortable in the pocket, and continually overthrows his receivers. His porous defense lends him no favors, either. Still, we were saying the same thing about the Slurs last season, before they put together a great second-half run to make the playoffs. I am not saying it is out of the realm of possibility, but their remaining games alternate from easy opponents to hard/division opponents. However the NFC East is still somehow open to anyone who wants to take it.

20. New York Jets (+10)

How about Jekyll & Hyde Geno Smith, eh? Some weeks he looks like their new franchise quarterback, and other weeks he looks like a stopgap between trying to find the new franchise quarterback. For the short term however, the Jets are riding or dying with Smith. Luckily, the pressure on him isn’t too intense, Rex Ryan has yet again worked his magic to make the defense a top-five unit in the league. Now only if they can get offensive weapons with which to surround their quarterback.

21. Atlanta Falcons (-17)

Ouch, I definitely did not see this drop coming. Do not let the Julio Jones injury fool you, this team was in rough shape before the devastating injury. Granted, Roddy White and Steven Jackson were hobbled, but given Matt Ryan’s new contract and all the zeroes next to it; you kind of expect him to overcome those types of things. But when Jones went down, their defense giving up 26.3 points per game was just too much for Ryan to overcome. This team is in trouble for years to come.

22. Buffalo (+7)

This team is my darkhorse poised to make a second season run. They have an underrated front seven, and if they don’t end up trading Jarius Byrd, combined with Stephon Gilmore they could possibly make this unit top-five in the league. When EJ Manuel comes back, he will be in the same boat as the aforementioned Geno Smith. He will not be called upon to do much, and even less than Smith because of the weapons around him. Combined with a somewhat soft remaining schedule, consider me in on the Bills to climb to a 7-9 or 8-8 record.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Although injuries are nothing to make light of, I remarked after the Steelers lost Maurkice Pouncey that Pittsburgh was ahead of schedule on losing one critical offensive lineman in the beginning of the season. That being said, this line continually lets Ben Roethlisberger get pummeled. Their defense is rapidly aging at all the wrong places, and it looks like the Steel Curtain is starting to draw to a close on an era.

24. Arizona Cardinals (+1)

The Cardinals continue to frustrate me as they fail to get a quarterback to get Larry Fitzgerald the ball in his prime. No, Carson Palmer does not count. However, even if this team had a competent quarterback, two things would stand in their way of success: their miserable offensive line (half by design, half by injuries) and their tough division. Regardless, they have an opportunity to make a significant move in this year’s draft to snag a good quarterback because their defense is top notch and can pay a lot of attention to the other side of the ball.

25. Cleveland Browns (+2)

Oh, Brandon Weeden. Oh, Cleveland. If Cleveland is fully committed to this draft (the trade of Trent Richardson seems to indicate so) then they should us all a favor and just tank in front of our eyes by putting in Weeden. The Browns, like the Cardinals, can focus on their problems under center because of their solid defense and effective offensive weapons (Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon).

26. Houston Texans (-18)

Oh sweet Lord. Matt Schaub is not having a good year, to say the least. Although I stand by this assessment pre-meltdown, this still looks pretty bad: “Matt Schaub is an above average QB. I’m not sure he can win you a Super Bowl, but he can certainly lead this team to 11-12 wins in a weak AFC South.” Well then. I don’t think the worst case for the Texans could have envisioned Schaub combusting this badly, but that is what happened and now the Texans are an astounding 18 points back from where they started in the beginning of the season of my rankings.

27. New York Giants (-13)

I love to pile on Eli Manning as much as the next guy, but his offensive line has resembled turnstiles, and some of his interceptions have been passes that went through his receivers’ hands. Nevertheless, this team is in a bad place on top of the bad quarterback play. David Wilson has taken a, um, step back and their defense is still pretty bad. Luckily, they play in the NFC East and are still in the playoff race.

28. St. Louis Cardinals (-8)

Admittedly hung with the Seahawks in the past iteration of Monday Night Football, but the long term injury impact of Sam Bradford hurts, even if he has supplanted himself in the “disappointment” category of first-round picks. Their defense isn’t half bad, but the lack of impact from Tavon Austin and their trio of wholly ineffective running backs does not bode well for the future.

29. Oakland Raiders (+3)

Hey how about Terrelle Pryor? He and Geno Smith are the new poor versions of Mike Vick. You ride with the highs and deal with the lows. If Darren McFadden can keep producing and their defense plays at a league-average level, if Pryor is on his game this team can sneak games out against lesser opponents. Still showing some spunk this season while GM Reggie McKenzie plans and builds towards the future is always encouraging.

30. Minnesota Vikings (-13)

Christian Ponder? Nah. Matt Cassell? Nope. Josh Freeman? Not a chance. Poor Adrian Peterson. Much like the situation our friend Larry Fitzgerald, AD is wasting away his prime against nine and sometimes 10 in the box but the Vikes still somehow find a way to eke out victories. The signing of Greg Jennings and drafting of Cordarrelle Patterson were nice, but how good do you expect them to be if no one can get them the ball?

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

“I love this team. Couple reasons: Josh Freeman is in a contract year, and I think he has some serious potential.” I am here for your entertainment, people. This description should stop and end at “Greg Schiano” but I will just add in that their MRSA outbreak, the fact you have the best cover corner in the league in zone coverage and Doug Martin’s disappointing season before it got cut short by his injury don’t help.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

This team is No. 32 by default, even though it doesn’t even deserve to be ranked. I will spare you all the hilarious stats, like the Denver Broncos two highest scoring games this season have more points than the Jaguars have all season. At this point of the dreadful Blaine Gabbert experiment, even if Jadaveon Clowney is a once in a decade talent, do the Jaguars take Teddy Bridgewater (or ‘best quarterback X’)? Believe it or not, I think they should.

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Mike Devarenne
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4

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The Win Now Indianapolis Colts

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The Cover 4.com presents you with The Win Now Indianapolis Colts! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @thecover4 or facebook at theCo VerFour

Coming into the 2013 NFL season, people weren’t expecting the Indianapolis Colts to replicate their magical 2012 success. Admittedly, I was one of these people. Through five games, the Colts are 4-1. If I told you before the season that they would be off to this type of start, you might not have been surprised because their schedule had them playing the Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars which would seem like relative locks for wins. The Colts, however, took a different and more impressive route to their first four victories.

Miami Dolphins v Indianapolis ColtsThe lone loss for the Colts was handed to them by the Dolphins. I went back and looked at the box score, and the results were peculiar. The Colts led in all significant categories (total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, first downs, third down efficiency and time of possession) and each team turned it over once. The final score was 24-20, and you could say the Dolphins escaped with a win by the looks of that stat sheet. Their four wins include the aforementioned creampuffs Raiders and Jaguars but what sticks out is an impressive and dominant win against the San Francisco 49ers and a nail biter victory against the Seattle Seahawks’ vaunted defense. The Indianapolis Colts are no longer a team that should be regarded as average or maybe even above average. Advanced stats and metrics have come a long way, and the Colts’ 2012 season screamed overachievement by having the look of a 7-9 team while going 11-5. If you want some more nitty gritty on that, this article does a pretty good job outlining just how lucky they were last season. I tend to side with advanced metrics more often than not, but sometimes numbers can’t account for a variable that defies the logic and objectivity mathematics gives us. That variable is Andrew Luck.

 

Colts-Blog-322x276At the end of the 2012 season, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III were the talk of the town. They were all young quarterbacks that seemed to be the future stars of the NFL. It’s hard to believe a No. 1 pick in his rookie season didn’t generate much buzz (either good or bad) after his first season, but this was just the case. People (read: ESPN) love to sensationalize stories and games even if they gloss over the players and teams that are doing just as well or even better. For ESPN, everything has to fit a narrative. Even though the numbers clearly show that Griffin and Wilson had better numbers, they were also put in better positions to succeed than Luck. For Griffin, Mike Shanahan created a hybrid offense that was tailor made for him to excel, the read option and having a surprise rookie year from Alfred Morris played perfectly with his strengths as a quarterback. For Wilson, he had the support of a top-five running back (Marshawn Lynch) and also had a top-five defense protecting the lead for him, so he was not forced to do more than he had to. Luck had none of these royalties the other two were afforded. You could make an argument that the Colts running back tandem was serviceable, but they can not hold a candle to Morris and Lynch. Beyond Reggie Wayne, they didn’t attempt to surround him with weapons in his first year, even though Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hilton have emerged as legit NFL starters after  promising rookie campaigns. On top of that, the Colts gave up the most QB hits last year (114) which over a 16 game season amounts to a little bit more than seven hits a game, a ghastly figure. And to boot, their defense was  No. 25 in yards allowed on defense, so more often than not Luck was made to throw when defenses were expecting it, and most likely forced throws to try and mount a comeback. All of these shortcomings were not lost on Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay, who addressed all the shortcomings of the Colts this offseason and during the 2013 regular season. Irsay, known for not being complacent and certainly not reserved, pushed all the chips to the center of the table and went all in to bring the Indianapolis Colts another Lombardi Trophy.

NFL: Preseason-Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis ColtsBy  saying Irsay “pushed all his chips to the center of the table” it may have given  the impression that he made a rogue decision. This is certainly not the case, it was a smart and calculated move that I would be very happy with if I am a Colts fan. Part of the reason Irsay did right by selling out for Super Bowl aspirations is because Luck (and all young players on rookie deals) are on dirt cheap contracts under the new CBA. Some numbers: Russell Wilson’s cap hit ($700,000) for this year means that Mark Sanchez will make more money in one game than Wilson will all season. Yeah. However, draft position matters. Wilson was drafted in the third round, so he is compensated less than Griffin and Luck, who are at $5 million a year. With such incredible signal callers at bargain prices, it gives teams a chance to sign impact players they might not be able to afford once those rookie contracts are up. However, before the new CBA was signed, teams had to shell out the big bucks for their first overall picks before they even took a snap in the NFL. Case in point: Jamarcus Russell, who the Raiders paid $61 million ($32 million of which was guaranteed) to be an overweight black hole under center. Somewhat related: new Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor requested to wear #2 for his jersey number after Russell was released and was denied because the team didn’t want another quarterback wearing #2 again. Anyway,  I am 100% on board with Irsay being all in; having a world class quarterback only making $5 million the next couple years is a luxury few are offered. But just because I agree with the strategy doesn’t mean I agree with what he did with all that cap room.

To be fair, Irsay did address all the aforementioned shortcomings with his team, he just went about it in an illogical and more expensive way that will eventually come back to bite him. For their offensive line, the Colts signed Gosder Cherilus and Donald Thomas. The Thomas contract was a savvy signing, but the Cherilus contract seems to be a gross overpay and is not even the worst one they made. The worst contract they made was to Erik Walden, an above-average linebacker but not one that you pay $4 million year. The last particularly bad contract that sticks out is the one they gave to the marshmellow man himself, LaRon Landry. Landry, a safety who is a workout freak, keeps putting on muscle to his frame even though it makes him slower in pass coverage, so apparently Irsay thought the next logical step was to pay him $6 million a year. I appreciate the effort Irsay put into making his team better, even if that effort was somewhat misplaced. The final move that made the Colts throw their hat in for a Lombardi Trophy was when they made an in-season trade a few weeks into this year for enigmatic running back Trent Richardson. Richardson’s body of work certainly suggested that he wasn’t worth the first round pick the Colts had to give up for him, but I thought maybe Indianapolis could put him in a better position to succeed (namely: not having Brandon Weeden as his quarterback). That seems not to be the case, as Richardson seems on his way to be labeled as a bust after being taken  No. 3 overall in 2012. Another swing and a miss by Irsay.

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I will just bluntly say what I was eluding to in those previous couple of paragraphs: Irsay was handed an opportunity on a silver platter and simply screwed it up. In a particularly weak conference, if Irsay had made savvier signings in the offseason they might have been able to afford a couple more key players that could contribute in a big way. The Colts made a big splash on the first day of free agency, overpaying players they thought would also be sought after. Smarter teams stayed complacent, waiting until they had the leverage to underpay players because the players had no other option but to sign (cough cough Aqib Talib and the New England Patriots). Looking back, you could say that I was somewhat piling on Indianapolis with the decisions that it made, but my claims were justifiable. The Colts are still a good, if not very good, team, and can do some serious damage in the playoffs assuming they make it. It seems like they will be, because it seems like someone has a Matt Schaub voodoo doll and is just endlessly jabbing it with every pick six that poor human being throws. With the Texans faltering, the division seems ripe for the Colts to grab a stranglehold on. Irsay may have screwed up some decisions this past year, but it may not end up mattering with a stud like  Luck under center.

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NFL Wild Card Weekend: How The Last Four Months Finally Made Sense

Is this the end of the road for Ray Lewis?

Is this the end of the road for Ray Lewis?

16 games. That’s the NFL Regular season, 16 games. That’s 1/5th the amount of games played in the NBA, 1/3rd the games played in the Premiere League, and 1/10th the games played in MLB. It seems almost presumptuous to assume any amount of certainty when seen through this lens of statistical minimalism, but the efficient pragmatism of professional football continues to render the schedules of other sporting leagues nearly obsolete. How superfluous does MLB seem every time a team catches fire on the last month and wins the World Series with hot pitching and a soon to be over-rated hitter (Hello Marco Scuttaro). What is there to possibly learn from the NBA when Greg Popovich sits his entire team in nationally televised games, and Lebron James cruise controls so thoroughly through home games against the Bobcats that he’s forced to pedal his bicycle home to achieve any real exercise–Though, to be fair to Lebron, it takes more effort to bike home than it takes to beat Byron Mullens to the rim. When forced through the most common test–The Human Eye Test—The NFL season simply has no competition. With only 16 games there’s no “cruise control”. With only 16 games there is no “sitting starters”.The New York Giants are talented and inconsistent, we saw it with blowouts over Green Bay, and home losses to the Cowboys. The Pittsburgh Steelers finally got too old. There is no guess work here because the NFL is too violent to leave room for such things. There is a scientific precision that exists inside of such mindless violence, a sort of brilliance from the beast. It’s the great dichotomy of the NFL: with only 16 games we know exactly what teams are when the playoffs come around. So with such knowledge in hand, the plan here is to predict the winners and spreads of Wild Card Weekend based on the facts we already know.

 

The Indianapolis Colts v The Balitmore Ravens

 

Fact: The Colts faced the league’s easiest schedule

Fact: The Colts did not have a road win v. a winning team all season.

Fact: The Colts 5 losses came by an average of 16.5 points.

Fact: The Colts DVOA says they’re not only the worst 11 win team in 20 years, they’re also the worst 10 win team in 20 years.

Fact: Andrew Luck led the league on third and long conversions

Fact: T.Y Hilton ranks as the #1 rookie Wideout and it isn’t very close.

Fact: Andrew Luck is really, really good in the 4th quarter. Top 5 QBR in the 4th Quarter.

Fact: The Ravens have the NFL’s best special teams.

Fact: The Ravens are no longer an elite defense.

Fact: The Ravens are in fact in the bottom half of the league in Yards and Points allowed.

Fact: The Ravens defense has been better since Ray Lewis’ injury.

Fact: Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis coming back isn’t nearly as valuable as Ladarius Webb still being injured.

 

Despite everything I’ve said about facts, this game and the Colts entire season is based around one thing: ChuckStrong. It’s circumstantial in most places, but the NFL is one of the few places where emotional turbulence can factor into statistical relevance. With players being so equally talented, something as emotionally hefty as your cancer beating coach returning to the sidelines can be all the difference. Believe in Chuckstrong.

 

Colts +7. Colts 31, Ravens 24.

 

 

 

The Houston Texans v. The Cincinnati Bengals

 

Fact: Arian Foster had five 100 yard games in his first 9 games.

Fact: Arian Foster had two 100 yard games in his last 7 games.

Fact: Arian Foster had 617 receiving yards in 2011

Fact: Arian Foster had 217 receiving yards in 2012

Fact: In the 4 losses for the 2012 Texans, Arian Foster averaged 46 yards per game.
Fact: Matt Schaub completed 58% of 3rd down plays against the blitz

Fact: Matt Schaub completed 34% of 3rd down plays against 4 pass rushers.

Fact: Matt Schaub makes absolutely no sense statistically.

Fact: The Texans have the worst Special Teams in the NFL.

Fact: The Houston Texans use play action more than all but six teams in the NFL.

Fact: The Bengals give up the most yards per play action in the NFL

Fact: Geno Atkins and J.J Watt are both having MVP Seasons from positions that don’t win MVP Awards.

Fact: The Cincinnati Bengals have the 2nd best wide receiver in the NFL

Fact: The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the league’s bottom 10 receiving corps.

Fact: The Houston Texans allowed the fewest yards to #1 receivers.

Fact: Johnthan Joseph is the best deep ball cornerback in the NFL.

 

Everyone is lining up behind Cincinnati this week because they’re coming in hot and the Texans are having an historically bad falling off. But if you look at the Bengals “hot streak” you’ll notice a major flaw: They’re beating the league’s worst teams. It started with a win over the New York Giants that has now lost a significant value. They proceeded to stomp the AFC West and Eagles(like everyone else), and finished it off with wins over the AFC’s New York Giants(The Steelers) and barely beat a Ravens team playing its backups. Don’t forget that this is the same team who lost to the Dolphins, Steelers, and Cowboys at home. In the matchup of “Team Beating Bad Teams” v. “Winning Team Getting Complacent” I’ll take the latter.

 

Texans -4.5. Houston 23, Bengals 10.

 

 

The Minnesota Vikings v. The Green Bay Packers

 

Fact: Adrian Peterson is having the greatest season in the history of running backs. The word greatest is naturally subjective, but the stats remove it rather quickly.

Fact: Adrian Peterson averaged 6 yards a carry. No importance just a hilarious fact.

Fact: Adrian Peterson is not a human being. He may be a robot, an X-Men, or an Alien but a human being he is not.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

Fact: Charles Woodson, Randall Cobb, and to an extent Jordy Nelson did not play in that game.

Fact: The Green Bay Packers have the best wide receiving corps since the 2005 Indinapolis Colts.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings have the league’s worst rated secondary.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings #1 Corner, Antoine Winfield, will be wearing a cast.

Fact: The Green Bay Packers give up the most yards to #1 wide receivers

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings #1 receiver, Percy Harvin, is out for the season.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings have one of the league’s five worst receiving units

Fact: Christian Ponder did not complete a pass longer than 15 yards from Weeks 9 through Weeks 15.

Fact: Christian Ponder is the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings

Fact: Christian Ponder is a starting quarterback for an NFL franchise in the playoffs. I’m not kidding.

Fact: No, seriously, he didn’t complete a pass over 15 yards for 6 weeks.

Fact: That stat is more impressive than Adrian Peterson’s yard per carry stat. It’s historically atrocious.

Fact: Aaron Rodgers yards per pass decreases with the number of pass rushers sent at him.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings blitz less than 28 other NFL teams.

 

Adrian Peterson has turned a 3 win team into a 10 win team. A W.A.R of 7 is great for a baseball player; a W.A.R of 7 for an NFL player is one of the great feats in NFL history. But the sad fact here is that the Green Bay Packers are a vastly more talented team. Peterson has ran for 200 yards in both games against the Packers and both games were still dominated by the Packers. This is the NFL in 2013, a passing league at its core, and comparing Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder is like akin to the hotness of women at 3 A.M with alcohol in your system inside a dark room, and women at 3 A.M completely sober in the light. It’s just not very fair.

 

Packers -8. Packers 34, Vikings 17.

 

 

The Washington Redskins v. The Seattle Seahawks

 

Fact: Russel Wilson had a statistically superior season to RGIII and Andrew Luck.

Fact: Russel Wilson has no chance of winning Rookie of the Year.

Fact: The 2012 Seattle Seahawks rank as one of the most balanced teams in 20 years.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks have a Top 5 Offense, Top 5 Defense, and Top 3 Special Teams.

Fact: Of the 5 losses the Seahawks had, 3 of them came on the road in division games.

Fact: The Seahawks lost by an average of 5 points a game.

Fact: The Seahawks never lost a game by more than one touchdown.

Fact: The Seahawks scored 50 points twice and also scored the most points on the San Fransisco Defense.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks rank in the Top 5 of the following categories: Rushing Efficiency, Passing Efficiency, 1st 2nd and 3rd down yards per play, red zone scoring, red zone defense.

Fact: The Seahawks are the worst team in the league when facing a blitzing corner.

Fact: The Redskins blitz a corner more than any team in the NFL.

Fact: The Seahawks rank 21st in rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

Fact: The Redskins have Robert Griffin the Third.

Fact: Robert Griffin the Third>RGIII

Fact:The Seattle Seahawks have the league’s best cornerbacks.

Fact: The Redskins are the #1 team against the blitz.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks rank 25th in blitz attempts.

 

As I said before, Seattle doesn’t just rank high in team efficiency, they’re historically great. As FootballOutsiders points out, only twice before has a team as good as Seattle not won its division and had to go on the road: The 2009 Ravens and the 2008 Eagles. Both teams won by double digits. I expect a similar score line here because my Seahawks to the Super Bowl campaign is heating up.

 

Seattle 27, Redskins 14

 

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General Peppers
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Week 15 NFL Power Rankings: Is Anyone Really Good Besides New England?

Can anyone stop Tom Brady?!

Can anyone stop Tom Brady?!

Who doesn’t like end of the season power rankings? Everyone wants to know who is the top dog right now and how would you rank the teams after 14 games of the season. Heres how General Peppers of The Cover 4 ranks them:

1. New England Patriots

And it isn’t even close. After a slow start, including a loss at home to the NFL Record Holding Worst Blowout Ever Arizona Cardinals, the New England Patriots have distanced themselves from the rest of the NFL. They’ve beaten the other best teams in the AFC, The Broncos and Texans, by an average of nearly 20 points. They’ve dropped 50+ twice. They lead the league in both yards and points, and this with both of their elite tight ends missing extensive time on the field. They can run the ball efficiently, beat you deep, short, over the middle, in the red zone. This offense has no weaknesses and is lead by quite possibly the greatest quarterback of all time. What makes them scary is that their defense is finally clicking on all cylinders. Their first round picks, Dante Hightower and Chandler Jones, have given the Patriots their most athletic defense in nearly a decade. Fun stat: Did you know the Patriots are 21-0 over the past 2 and a half years in the second half of the season. Belichick’s ability to improve a team is legendary.

2. New York Giants

Colin Cowherd said it best, “I Trust the Giants.” It’s the greatest compliment one can give a football team. I know they’re gonna lose ugly games to bad teams. I also know they’ll probably lose to the Falcons on the road this week. But with everything on the line, do you think the Falcons are within 10 points of the Giants? Me neither.

3. Denver Broncos

Fact: This is the best defense Peyton Manning has ever had.
Opinion: Demaryius Thomas ight be the most athletically gifted player Peyton Manning has ever had on offense.
Fact: The Denver Broncos have beaten 2 teams with a winning record.
Fact: Both those teams are 7-6 and in the AFC North.
Fact:The Broncos 3 losses all came against teams leading their divisions
Fact:The Broncos were down by 14+ points in all three games.
Opinion: I have no clue how good the Broncos really are but it’s Peyton Manning and that’s better than 95% of the league.

4. Houston Texans

Two blowout losses to two high powered offenses. The Texans have distinct problems, but a majority of them are chalked up to injuries. The one truth is this: Texans cannot get behind early. They need to be able to run the ball and achieve big plays through play action. No play action and this offense shuts down.

5. San Francisco 49ers

The AFC’s Houston Texans. With a lead this team is nigh unbeatable. But if you are able to beat or stalemate them at the line of scrimmage you can bring this offense to a stand still. Still, elite players at every defensive position and depth at all offensive skill positions.

6. Green Bay Packers

Do not be shocked when the Packers make it to the Super Bowl. This is, without a doubt, the most injured team in the NFL. These players are slowly coming back. Aaron Rodgers will not forget how quickly you buried him.

7. Seattle Seahawks

There are 4 things we know about the Seattle Seahawks:
1. Pete Carroll, despite his flaws, knows how to coach a defense. His teams tackle in space, don’t give up big plays, and are efficient at all 3 levels.
2. The Seahawks have the best secondary in the NFL. Ask New England. Ask Green Bay. They also have a top 5 special teams. This combination has a history of working well.
3. The Seahawks have the best home field advantage in all of sports. In a league where parity rules, the Seahawks, no matter how bad they may be, always win at home. If they get a home game in the playoffs they will win it. Ask the Saints.
4. Russel Wilson has gotten better every week and so has the Seattle Offense. Sidney Rice is recovering from his knee(finally) and Golden Tate has exploded in his third year(the typical break out year for WRs). Lynch looks stronger than ever.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Giants v. Falcons. In Atlanta. 2nd Round of the Playoffs. Atlanta -2. Who here isn’t taking New York on the Money Line? Exactly. This is the worst best team I’ve ever seen. They are average to below average in all facets excluding throwing the ball, and even that has slipped recently. They’re gonna win this weekend and I won’t move them an inch.

9. Baltimore Ravens

There isn’t more talent on any team in the NFL outside of New England. For the Ravens it’s about putting it together. Oh yeah, and Flacco not throwing up ducks in the playoffs. Good luck with that.

10. Indianapolis Colts

If I have to hear one more person talk about how RGIII has thrown fewer picks than Andrew Luck I’m going to start breaking things again. Andrew Luck has been given the entire playbook. No babysitting, no holding back. They didn’t craft a college offense around him and ask him to throw bubble screens and safe passes. He’s asked to throw it 50 times a game down the field to rookie receivers and tight ends. He is, without a doubt the greatest rookie I’ve ever seen. Rookie of the Year shouldn’t even be a close vote.

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General Peppers
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