The Betting Corner : NBA Round 1, Day 3 & 4

NBA Betting Corner Round 1, Day 3 & 4

Bracket

Welcome! To the NBA Playoffs Betting Corner.

4/22/13

8PM ET on TNT

Series 0-1

          Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets          

 –

10.30PM ET on TNT

Series 0-1

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

—–

4/23/13

7.30PM ET on NBATV

Series 0-1

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

 –

8PM ET on TNT

Series 0-1

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

 –

10.30PM ET on TNT

Series 0-1

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

  –

Our Sunday started out with an easy win as the total in the Indiana-Atlanta game went over. The Lakers-Spurs game (+9) was really close. The Bucks kept it close in the first half but just had a total meltdown in the second half. In the last game of the night, we had the total over 213 and the final score totaled up to 211,If you watched the game, you’re just as frustrated as me.

YTD Season: 3-4-1

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In the first game of the night, the Brooklyn Nets will continue to route the Chicago Bulls. I had the Bulls +5 because the Bulls are still a great defensive team and with Joakim Noah back, things were promising. Apparently not. The most productive center in the league, Brook Lopez, is playing great along with Deron Williams who’s been on a tear since the All-Star break. Noah came back but wasn’t a huge factor. The Chicago starters combined for just 50 points while the Brooklyn starters combined for 78.

Key(s) to winning- Rebounds

1 Unit (Brooklyn Nets -5)

clippers reserve

In primetime comes the highlight reel Los Angeles Clippers who will try to take a 2-0 lead in their series. The Clippers’ bench only scored nine more points than the Grizzlies bench but the difference in the game was rebounding, The Clippers out-rebounded the Grizzlies 47-23. There’s a saying in basketball, you control the board/paint, and you control the game. The Grizzlies just don’t have enough intensity to match up with the Clippers, especially in Los Angeles.

Key(s) to winning- Rebounds + Bench Production

1 Unit- (Los Angeles Clippers -5.5)

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On Tuesday we have the Miami Heat taking on the Milwaukee Bucks in what looks to be a four-game sweep for the King and his gang. Even though Brandon Jennings showed up and played a decent game in Game 1, the picture shows exactly what happened on Sunday. King James took matters into his own hands and flirted with a triple-double as the Heat erased any doubt in Jennings’ mind that the Bucks will win in six. In summary, the Bucks simply can’t handle the Heat. And with another blowout in mind, I don’t see any value in taking either the total points because it could go either way in a blowout situation.

Key(s) to winning- King James leading the way

0 Unit- (No value in either points or total)

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In more Tuesday action we have the still emotional Boston Celtics at New York taking on the Knicks and like I predicted in Game 1, the Celtics did put up a fight and could have easily covered the game, but were held to eight points in the fourth quarter. Boston also turned the ball over several times in the final two minutes. While emotions ran high during the first game, I feel like the Knicks showed the Celtics first hand why they are 31-10 at home this season. With New York’s stellar defense in the second half forcing turnovers, and with Boston lacking a true point guard, the Celtics had plenty of trouble taking care of the ball. I predict that the Celtics will win outright in Game 3 at home for their home crowd, but for Game 2, take the Knicks.

Key(s) to winning- 3pt% & FT%

1 Unit- (Knicks -6.5)

David-Lee-will-miss-the-rest-of-the-season.-Garrett-Ellwood-NBA-Getty-Images

The nightcap on Tuesday features a GoldenState team that is missing David Lee for the remainder of the playoffs. I had predicted that the Warriors would put up a fight and make it a tough series with Lee and Andrew Bogut being paint problems for the Denver Nuggets but it’s not happening now.The Warriors lost their main low-post threat and about 20 points per game to go along with 10 rebounds per game. With that in mind, the Nuggets were lucky to come out with a win via a buzzer-beater by 37-year-old veteran Andre Miller, who came off the bench with 28 points. It doesn’t look like George Karl will have the need to play Kenneth Faried with Lee out of the picture, so were going to keep going with the under for Game 2.

Key(s) to winning- Points in the paint

1 Unit- (Total under 207)

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Fantasy Basketball: NBA First Half Review

harden
As we pass the trade deadline, we find ourselves at a very interesting point in the 2012-2013 NBA fantasy season. Now that we’re a bit past the halfway mark of this season, let’s take this moment to review the biggest surprises and major disappointments that we’ve come across this year.

Surprises

1) James Harden

Fear The Beard! What else is there to say, this guy is an absolute beast. Harden is posting career highs across the board, averaging 26.1 points, 5.7 assists, 4.8 boards, 1.9 steals and .5 blocks per game. When The Beard got traded to the Rockets everyone thought his numbers would increase, but no one thought he would be a top-five fantasy player midway through the season. As long as he can stay healthy, big things will continue to come. Expect this kind of production nightly as Harden establishes himself as the third-best shooting guard in the league after Kobe and Wade.

2) Nikola Vucevic

A pleasant surprise this year, Nikola Vucevic could be the steal of the 2012-2013 season. With an average draft position (ADP) of 171 in standard 12-team leagues, Vucevic was seen as a capable contributor in points, rebounds and blocks but not a top-10 PF/C. Vucevic has had four-plus games of 17 or more rebounds and has earned 32-plus minutes a game for the struggling Orlando Magic. Many people overlooked this piece in the blockbuster Dwight Howard deal, but it looks like Orlando got this one right.

3) Paul George

Paul George continues to amaze me. He has all the talent in the world, but seemed inconsistent at times last year for whatever reason. However, this year due to a blessing in disguise injury to Danny Granger, George has taken the next step in his long and talented career. Getting selected to his first of many all-star games this year, George is averaging 17.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.8 steals and .7 blocks per game, all career highs. George is playing at such an elite level lately, rumors have swirled that Granger could be traded before the deadline. You know what they say, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

4) David Lee

What a year David Lee is having. Deserving of his all-star selection, Lee is averaging 19 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and just under 1 steal per game. More importantly he, along with Steph Curry, is a big reason why the Warriors are in playoff contention this year. This production wasn’t expected seeing as the Warriors brought Andrew Bogut and Carl Landry onto the scene this past offseason. Shooting over 50 percent from the field, while leading the league in double- doubles this year with 33 to go along with one triple-double, Lee will continue to dominate. With an ADP of 38 in standard 12-team fantasy drafts this year, Lee is a top-five fantasy player only behind superstars like Lebron, Durant, Kobe and Harden.

5) Tony Parker

Tony Parker is on his way to having a career year. Leading the Spurs to the best record in the NBA this year, there is no question the team has become his. Averaging 21 points, 7.7 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 steal per game, while shooting a career high 54 percent from the field, Parker is easily in the prime of his impressive career. In his past five games, Parker is averaging close to 30 points a game while maintaining that high field-goal percentage. He is the second-best point guard this year in fantasy scoring — only behind Russell Westbrook — and will continue to dominate as the Spurs cruise during the second half of the season. With an average draft position of 46, don’t be surprised to see Tony on a ton of championship winning teams this year.

Other Notable Mentions

Greivis Vasquez-Leads the league in double doubles amongst all guards. (ADP-111)
J.J. Hickson- 28 double doubles, good for fourth in league amongst all players. ( ADP-113)
Joakim Noah- First all-star appearance while having a career year in all categories. (ADP-56)

Disappointments

Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace

This is not the team the Brooklyn Nets envisioned after spending a ton of money in the offseason. Deron Williams looks out of sorts and uncomfortable, Joe Johnson seems to be playing better as of late, but has struggled the majority of the year figuring out how to adjust his game when he’s not the number one option and Gerald Wallace has fallen off completely. For being a top-10 pick in most league and being considered a top-three point guard last year, Williams has been nothing short of a major disappointment. Johnson’s efficiency has taken a major hit this year. Even though he is averaging about 17 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists a game, Johnson is shooting 42 percent from the field, his worse average since his days in Phoenix. Wallace’s average draft position this year was 57th. He’s owned in only 50 percent of ESPN leagues and is averaging 8.8 points per game, his worst points average since his days in Sacramento. Good thing Mikhail Prokhorov has deep, deep pockets.

Roy Hibbert

Coming off his first all-star appearance last year,  many thought that Hibbert would continue to excel in Indiana. Unfortunately, this year has been the exact opposite. Shooting a career-low 40 percent from the field, Hibbert has been really poor this year. The only reason why the Pacers are still a playoff dark horse is because of David West and Paul George. Hibbert’s ADP was 49th, putting him ahead of guys like Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday and Joakim Noah. Can anyone say redraft?

Steve Nash and Pau Gasol

If anyone told me at the beginning of the season that Pau and Steve would be this disappointing I would laugh in their face for days on end. Pick and pop all day is what i envisioned pre-season, but man was I wrong. These guys will be hall of famers one day, but for some reason Mike D’Antoni’s system has been a damper on their production. At first I thought it was Kobe’s ball dominance, but after he transformed into Kobe Johnson, Nash’s production continued to struggle. Of course, Pau looked like he was coming into form, but then he got hurt. With average draft positions of 16 for Gasol and 40 for Nash, a ton of people thought this team would be championship bound, but now we will be lucky to make the eighth seed… someone call Phil.

Tyreke Evans

The Kings continue to be one of the most disappointing franchises in the NBA. After his rookie year, everyone believed Tyreke would turn the franchise around, but he continues to struggle with living up to those expectations. With an ADP of 52, Evans had some people believing this would  be the year, but instead he is averaging a career-low in points and assists. At this point the Kings might be wise to trade him while he has some value and build the team around Demarcus Cousins.

Other Notable Mentions

Marcin Gortat- No Steve Nash… need I say more? (ADP-34)
Andre Igoudala- Iggy is still trying to find his groove in Denver, no one thought it would take this long. (ADP-33)
Kris Humphries- 29 double-doubles last year, on track for 12 this year. (ADP-76)

All stats from: http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/
ADP rankings: http://www.fantasypros.com/nba/rankings/overall.php

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Rico’s 24/7 Fantasy
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
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