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The Betting Corner: MLB Friday, April 26th, 2013

April 25, 2013 by Leave a Comment

gordon_5axedjyy_zhhnascc4-25-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Texas at Minnesota (Over 8.5)

Season YTD: 30-23 +5.32 Units

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Well, both pitchers came to play in this one.  Can’t say we had this one right.  Texas had a few chances with the bases loaded in the middle innings and less than two outs but couldn’t produce the breakout inning we needed.

___

1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

Even though Detroit won against KC the other day, they still haven’t been playing well.  You could argue 4 of their runs were unearned because they came after an error that would’ve ended the inning.  2 of the remaining 3 runs scored were from players that walked due to the wildness of Wade Davis.  Outside of those gifts their offense has been stagnant.  Atlanta on the other hand went into Colorado and took 2 of 3 from the number 1 team in the NL West.

I feel I’ve got a pretty good read on Maholm this year, we’ve been on the right side of two if his games this year (one was last week with Pitt in a 3-1 victory).  He’s coming off the 3 earned runs we called and would love to bounce back against struggling Detroit.  Maholm is holds a 2.60 ERA against the Tigers in 3 career starts.  Add that to his outrageous 3-1 record and 1.03 ERA, I’ll take him as a road underdog against a struggling offense.

Anibal Sanchez on the other hand, while throwing well this year (2-1 with a 1.75 ERA), has struggled against Atlanta in the past.  In 17 starts, he’s 4-11 with a 5.42 ERA (Atlanta’s won the last 5 games he’s started against them).  And if we don’t get up early, it’s always nice knowing Atlanta’s bullpen is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA on the year.  That’s ranked #1 in MLB.  Detroit, not so much.  They hold a 1-5 record with a 4.86 ERA.  That’s good for 27th in the majors.

___

1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

7.5 is an awfully low total for these two teams considering their offensive capabilities and who they’re sending to the mound.  Hell, Dillon Gee threw two and a half weeks ago against the Phils and gave up 7 in just 3 innings. Philadelphia hasn’t been playing bad.  They’re getting runners on base, they’re just not getting those timely hits to get over the hump.  Facing Gee again may be the kick they need.  He’s now got a 7.55 career ERA against them in 7 games.

The Mets offense has scored an average of 5.68 runs per game (ranked #1 in the NL) and are currently 7-4 this year against right handed pitching.  Kyle Kendrick has pitched well in the early going, but I expect enough of a hiccup if not from him then hopefully from the Philly bullpen who has fared so well when we’ve gone with them in the last.

____________________________________________________________________________
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 20th, 2013

April 20, 2013 by Leave a Comment

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4-19-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Season YTD: 23-17 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 8-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-3

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-11

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-10

___

We were on the right side in yesterdays contest.  Starting pitching went pretty much as I expected, just a few runs given up on a few home runs for each.  We really cashed in this game though when the bullpens were able to shut it down completely in the last third of the game.  We’re on that little winning streak of 5-1-1 that I promised would eventually come after a run of bad games.  Lets hope we can keep it going.

___

1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

Pittsburgh has been playing well lately.  Their offense is clicking and I was unaware of this last game, but their team bullpen ERA is 6th in MLB at 2.34.  Today is going to be a pitcher’s duel whether you realize it or not.  The names Paul Maholm and James McDonald don’t exactly scream “pitcher’s duel” but when you see the statistics you’ll come to realize why Vegas set this line at 7.5.

Paul Maholm hasn’t given up an earned run this year.  Granted he’s pitched against Washington (13th), Philadelphia (15th), and Miami (30th in total runs scored 2013) so he hasn’t been tested all that much.  Maholm brings a career 4.20 ERA (3.74 and 3.54 the last 2 years with Atlanta) into todays game.  One thing to note though is that on the road he holds a 4.80 ERA, giving him a home/away spread of almost a point difference.  Don’t expect him to exit todays game with less than 3 earned runs to his name (remember that reversion to the mean that I talked about, this is where it hopefully will help us tonight).

James McDonald comes into this game with a 1-2 clip and a 5.27 ERA; hardly a line you’d want to see your pitcher have against a team who’s only lost 3 games all year.  However, against the Braves in the past 3 years, he’s 3-0 over 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA.    Oh yeah, and his home/away splits last year, 6-2 at home with a 2.73 ERA vs just 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA at home.  McDonald also holds the edge in the batter/pitcher matchups.  You could argue that this is a coin flip of a ballgame, so at +130, we’re getting a nice price in this one.

___

1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Colorado’s bats have been their crutch as of late overcoming some shoddy pitching the last 5.  They shouldn’t need to score 8 in this one to secure a victory though.  Jorge De La Rosa takes the bump in his 4th start of the year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts.  In his career against Arizona however, he’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.41.  That’s quite a feat considering half those games have come in the altitude of Colorado.

His opponent in Trevor Cahill hasn’t had nearly as much success so far this year; or against the Rockies in his career for that matter. He’s 1-4 in 5 career starts against the Rockies.  This game shouldn’t be an even -110 contest.  I’ll ride the Rockies hot 5 game winning streak in this one.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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The Betting Corner: Thursday, April 18th, 2013

April 17, 2013 by Leave a Comment

041713-MLB--Braves-Juan-Francisco-DG-PI_20130417151948783_660_3204-17-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at Cincinatti

Season YTD: 20-17 +0.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 7-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 12-2

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-10

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-8

___

Pretty self evident Lannan didn’t have his best stuff in this one.  The way the Phils offense has been playing this game seemed out of reach after he gave up 6 earned runs by the completion of the second inning.  Leake pitched well and had a few hits to go with it.  Nice card for tomorrow.

___

1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Over 9.5)

This games opened up at 9.5 in a few early posting sportsbooks.  I’m guessing by morning it will be 10 at least.  Get it at as low as possible (preferably under 11 if you can; if it gets to there I’d drop it to 1/2 a unit).  Weather should be tolerable but that hasn’t seemed to stop these teams the last couple days anyways.  Low chance of rain and the wind should be blowing out to center 15-20 MPH by game time.

Also, these pitchers haven’t fared well against one another in the past and have been par at best against sub par offenses.  Niese has given up 4, 1, and 2 earned runs.  Doesn’t seem like a lot but he was facing Minnesota, Miami, and San Diego.  Those three teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in total runs scored (Miami is a solid 30/30).  His opponent in the Rockies is in second with 82 total runs scored.

Jon Garland has given up 5 earned runs against San Diego in 2 starts this year (12 innings pitched w/ a 3.75 ERA).  San Diego is ranked 19th in total runs scored this year.  His opponent in the Mets are only 1 run and 1 place behind Colorado (3rd at 81 total runs scored) for 2013.  I like the odds for this one to complete the sweep for overs in this one.

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1 Unit – St. Louis at Philadelphia (Under 7.5)

We learned last night that the Phillies have had nothing but issues scoring runs the past week.  Cole Hamels is veteran enough to know he’s going to need to be on his game to be in contention tomorrow.  Some would say this may pressure him a bit too much but he’s also pitching for himself today.  His first two games were very un-Hamels like and I expect him to continue the success from his third start.

Wainwright is no slouch either.  He doesn’t want to be the one the Phillies break out against.  He’s pitched well against the Phils in the past (2.20 ERA over 9 games).

It’s always hard to bet such a low under, but this one warrants it.

*Side note: This games hovering around a price of -120 as I’m writing this but I feel that will go down a bit by game time.  I’m wary to wait in the hopes it doesn’t drop to 7, but I think I’ve got the right read on this one.

___

1.5 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-125)

I think it’s a decent spot for a step out in this one.  The Pirates offense has benefitted from beating up on two horribly underperforming bullpens this year (Cincinnati ranked #23 in bullpen ERA and St Louis ranked #30/30 in team bullpen ERA) .  Guess who’s #1 in starter and reliever ERA.  I’ll give you a hint, it starts with an “A” and ends with “tlanta Braves”.

The Pirates host Atlanta who finally lost yesterday ending their 10 game win streak.  That means there’s only one thing for them to do; start another one.  This price is a little ridiculous.  If you recall, last week when we had the Nats in their opener of that series, it was at -130 (should’ve won that game but that’s what Atlanta brings to the table; the ability to come back against anyone).  Teheran was the starter in that game.  He gave up 4 quick runs (2 on a HR to the opposite field by Bryce Harper; and it wasn’t a bad pitch either) but pitched very well after that. The Nats also had a much better starter than Jeff Locke on the mound in Ross Detwiler.

Basically, what this line is telling me, is that the .500 Pirates and Locke are worth more than the Nationals who were preseason favorites to place ahead of the Braves and win around 95 games this year?  Nah.  Take the -125 without hesitation. Lastly Locke isn’t an overpowering pitche.  Many experts have spoken their opinion that K’s are one of the Braves only weaknesses this year.  that being said, Their one weakness shouldn’t be TOO much of an issue in this one.

 

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

Filed Under: General Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Betting Corner: Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

April 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment

AP13041512215_uqgvr2jr_0p3nqa284-15-13 Recap:

CANCELED: 1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Under 10)

Season YTD: 18-16 -.24 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-9

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 11-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-6

___

Didn’t get to take advantage of the wind, snow, and cold as the game was cancelled.  Game has been rescheduled today and has been pushed back a few hours.  We’re not betting it again though as there probably won’t be any snow and the wind is blowing out to left today.  Still 2 totals on the table though.

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1 Unit – Kansas City at Atlanta (Over 7)

This is one of those law of averages plays.  Guthrie has been good so far this year and Medlen has been great.  But if you think about it, for at the very least, to get a push in this game each team has to score just 3 runs.  This COULD definitely go under but if this game were to be played out 100 times, my odds are that at least 60 will push or go over the total.

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1 Unit – Detroit at Seattle (Over 7)

This game’s somewhat the same as the first.  Doug Fister has been good so far this year but he’s not going to maintain a 2.77 ERA all year.   Veteran Aaron Harang makes his first appearance of the year against the American League Champion Tigers.  I don’t see any way both these teams can’t score a minimum of 3 runs a piece to at least get a push.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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The Betting Corner: Friday, April 12th, 2013

April 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

143344089_crop_exact4-11-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels (Under 8.5) (-115)

Season YTD: 14-9 +4.16 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

First tough loss of the year IMO.  Top of the 9th inning error costs us the under by 1/2 a run.  On the flip side, had it not happened, we would’ve only WON by half a run as well.  In games like that, you have to realize over a 162 game season, it’s going to happen plenty of times.  To be a successful gambler, you have be able to roll with the punches.

Friday we’ve got our first big card of the year to start off the weekend.  A handful of aces go for the third time this season.  You’ll notice the more information and starts that are in the books, the more we’ll test our luck with moneylines and runlines.

A total of 6 games Friday, and sorry but I don’t have time to re-look up all the stats for my writeups.  Just know at the time of writing this paragraph, it’s 11:46 PST and I started doing research at 10:00.

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1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)**Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)** Bet this Friday, may get better line

Pitt’s struggled all year.  Just because they have Burnett on the mound doesn’t mean they should be favored against the best in the NL Central.  Also, Leake has faired well against the Pirates in the past.

Atlanta comes into this game 8-1.  Washington is going to want to defend their home turf against the NL East rivals.  Expect this series to be a battle all year.  In this game though, the pitching matchup is by far in favor of Washington.  Anything under -140 seems like a good price for this one.

Cleveland’s had the luxury of having 2 days off.  A hot Justin Masterson takes the mound and at -135 at home, I expect the Indians to get back on track.  Quintana should be welcome sight after facing a few Yankee veterans.

The Twins have come back down to earth, but you could make the argument that so have the Mets.  At even odds, I think the combination of Niese and the NY lineup should be able to best Worley and the slumping Twin bats, even on the road.

Clayton Kershaw has yet to give up an earned run so far this year.  No reason this total should be 8, especially when his opponent in Patrick Corbin has had success against the Dodgers in the past.  Still without proof that Kershaw can get lit up this year, anything above 7 is a bet for sure in this one.

Lastly, Houston has had their moment.  Too bad for us it had to happen against Seattle.  Frankly, 2 may be their longest winning streak of the season.  This is a perfect situation for LA.  They’ve struggled, so they have no reason coming into this game to overlook the Astros.  Hanson is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his career against Houston.  Bud Norris, to say the least, struggled mightily on the road last year.  the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play is because the Angels bullpen hasn’t proven they can get anyone out yet this year.  Play it for 1.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

Filed Under: Baseball Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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