The Betting Corner: MLB Saturday, April 27th, 2013

jhonny1000_uza9ccxe_cocpn83r4-26-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

Season YTD: 30-25 +3.12 Units

Screen shot 2013-04-27 at 12.23.31 PM

Two consecutive days now we haven’t even been close with our plays.  We haven’t lost many like this so far this year.  Now you see why I’ve been frustrated losing games we shouldn’t be, because you knew these types of games would come where you’ve got no shot.  Our record isn’t indicative of the types of plays we’ve been putting out this year.  Hopefully our breaks will come sooner rather than later.

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1 Unit – San Francisco at San Diego (-105)

It’s no secret that Barry Zito has struggled against San Diego in the past (holding 4.52 ERA aginst them in his career.  But Stults is no saint against the Giants either.  Even though he’s got a positive record, he’s still rocking a 4.94 ERA against the them.  So you can throw those stats out the window.  This one seems pretty simple.  At roughly even money, I’ll go with the better offense and pitcher overall this year.

Zito is sporting a 3-1 record with a 3.42 ERA.  Keep in mind too that all of his runs this year were given up in Milwaukee 2 weeks ago where he got lit up for 9 earned in 2.2 innings.  Other than that, he’s been untouchable.  Outside of his first start of the year, Stults has been touched up on a continuous basis, giving up 4, 3, and 5 runs to the Dodgers twice and our Giants.  San Fran is averaging 4.2 runs per game in 2013 (4.09 on the road) versus San Diego’s measly 3.2 runs per game (3.30 at home).

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1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle (Over 6.5)

This is one of those cases where just because Felix Hernandez is pitching, the total is set extremely low.  For this case however, he hasn’t historically pitched well against the Angels.  He’s fresh off his 100th victory as a starter, throwing 6 shut out innings with 9 K’s (granted it was against Houston).  His success, or lack there of, against the Angels in his career would indicate a different type of outing for him tonight.  He’s 6-12 over 30 career starts with an ERA just north of 4.  He’s lost his last 5 starts against LA, giving up 7, 2, 4, 4, and 5 earned runs.

Joe Blanton on the other hand, holds a 3.5 ERA over 15 starts against Seattle with an 8-5 record.  So far this year though, he’s yet to last longer than 6 innings or give up fewer than 4 earned runs.  It’s almost impossible to argue betting the under in any game listed at 6.5.  3 runs a pop and we’re home free for the over.  Given the above stats, I’d say the odds of that happening are far greater than not.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Friday, April 12th, 2013

143344089_crop_exact4-11-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels (Under 8.5) (-115)

Season YTD: 14-9 +4.16 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

First tough loss of the year IMO.  Top of the 9th inning error costs us the under by 1/2 a run.  On the flip side, had it not happened, we would’ve only WON by half a run as well.  In games like that, you have to realize over a 162 game season, it’s going to happen plenty of times.  To be a successful gambler, you have be able to roll with the punches.

Friday we’ve got our first big card of the year to start off the weekend.  A handful of aces go for the third time this season.  You’ll notice the more information and starts that are in the books, the more we’ll test our luck with moneylines and runlines.

A total of 6 games Friday, and sorry but I don’t have time to re-look up all the stats for my writeups.  Just know at the time of writing this paragraph, it’s 11:46 PST and I started doing research at 10:00.

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1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)**Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)** Bet this Friday, may get better line

Pitt’s struggled all year.  Just because they have Burnett on the mound doesn’t mean they should be favored against the best in the NL Central.  Also, Leake has faired well against the Pirates in the past.

Atlanta comes into this game 8-1.  Washington is going to want to defend their home turf against the NL East rivals.  Expect this series to be a battle all year.  In this game though, the pitching matchup is by far in favor of Washington.  Anything under -140 seems like a good price for this one.

Cleveland’s had the luxury of having 2 days off.  A hot Justin Masterson takes the mound and at -135 at home, I expect the Indians to get back on track.  Quintana should be welcome sight after facing a few Yankee veterans.

The Twins have come back down to earth, but you could make the argument that so have the Mets.  At even odds, I think the combination of Niese and the NY lineup should be able to best Worley and the slumping Twin bats, even on the road.

Clayton Kershaw has yet to give up an earned run so far this year.  No reason this total should be 8, especially when his opponent in Patrick Corbin has had success against the Dodgers in the past.  Still without proof that Kershaw can get lit up this year, anything above 7 is a bet for sure in this one.

Lastly, Houston has had their moment.  Too bad for us it had to happen against Seattle.  Frankly, 2 may be their longest winning streak of the season.  This is a perfect situation for LA.  They’ve struggled, so they have no reason coming into this game to overlook the Astros.  Hanson is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his career against Houston.  Bud Norris, to say the least, struggled mightily on the road last year.  the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play is because the Angels bullpen hasn’t proven they can get anyone out yet this year.  Play it for 1.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Thursday, April 11th, 2013

AP768562731672ooo_bq2vtikw_j2cz3q3e4-10-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Colorado at San Francisco (-135)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Arizona Under 9 (+105)

WIN: 1 Unit – Tampa Bay at Texas Under 9 (+100)

Season YTD: 14-8 +5.31 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-6

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

A solid 2-1 day to get us back moving in the right direction.  Both our wins cover easily.  Had the Bucko’s pitching staff known they had a game today, we may have swept the day.  Oh well, still a very solid start to the season.  Travel day Thursday before the weekend series’ begin.  Only on 1 total for the day.

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1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels Under 8.5 (-115)

These two teams have been able to score on each other so far in the first 2 games of this series.  I think that stops Thursday as two very underrated pitchers take the bump.  AJ Griffin and Jason Vargas are very quality #4 starters.  And they’ve had success against their opponents in the past.  Griffin has only pitched against the Angels once but he lasted 8 innings giving up no earned.  Vargas has faced off against Oakland 13 times, going 5-5 with a 3.13 ERA in the process (giving up 1, 3, 1, 2, and 2 ER in his last 5).  I’m pretty confident that if we can get this one to the bullpens at 5 total runs or less, we should be able to take it to the bank.

 

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Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Sad State of Los Angeles

los-angeles

 

The arrival of 2013 was supposed to bring a new dawn for Los Angeles. There were expectations for Los Angeles in all four of the major sports. The Lakers are a perennial powerhouse, the Clippers aren’t fully “believable” yet, the Dodgers and Angels have risen to the top of the baseball world in both payroll and potential, the Kings were last year’s Stanley Cup champions,and there is major talk of an NFL team moving to the City of Angels. However, one could argue that 2013 has not been kind to Los Angeles so far, despite apparent success, and that there is potential for disaster for the entire year as a whole.
To begin with, let’s talk about what everyone in the WORLD is talking about, the Los Angeles Lakers. A team that regularly plays well into the playoffs retooled this year, adding one of the best passing guards in the history of the game (Steve Nash) and the game’s most dominant center (Dwight Howard) since that Shaq character. This roster shift happened for two reasons. First, the Lakers needed more of a veteran presence while simultaneously getting younger; this way the franchise could ride out the amazing Kobe Bryant era while building around a new powerful piece in Howard. Also, Kobe and company needed to desperately make moves to not get left behind by the fast-paced and star-studded Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Durant and LeBron James are now the stars of the National Basketball Association,and have pushed the Lakers to the brink of irrelevance. The Lakers needed to do something to keep up and adding Howard and Nash without losing major pieces seemed like the steal of the offseason. Who wouldn’t want to parlay a disinterested Andrew Bynum and Ramon Sessions into the premiere big man in the game and the most efficient passer around?
Still, there is trouble in Lakerland. Fast point guards continue to cause problems for a team that now has the top-ranked defender in the league in Howard. Nash simply cannot keep up and the other point guards struggle offensively, creating an uneven balance of skill-set. Kobe is having one of his best shooting seasons ever, leading the league in shooting at the “young” age of 34, but when he is double and even triple-teamed, no one is there to pick up the offensive slack. Antawn Jamison and Jodie Meeks, two beyond-the-arc assassins, seem to have been assassinated. When Laker Nation is most excited about the play of Earl Clark, a throw-in in the Howard trade, the problems have effectively put the second-winningest franchise at rock bottom, and the unthinkable possibility of the Lakers missing out on the post-season with this team has become a borderline foreseeable reality.
Fortunately for Los Angeles sports fans, the Clippers are still in town, and the play of Chris Paul has the Clippers leading the NBA in wins. And the scariest part of the Clippers is their depth. When Chris Paul was down with an injury, both Eric Bledsoe and Jamal Crawford “put the team on their backs” Greg Jennings-style and the team didn’t miss a beat. Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan have developed into consistent scoring threats while Lob City’s plethora of shooters in Matt Barnes, Willie Green and Caron Butler makes them a threat to score from beyond the arc on any possession.
Even with their success, they are not viewed nationally (or even locally) as a legitimate title contender. They are still “the Clippers”, an underachieving group of misfits who will never amount to anything in the post-season. In the world of basketball, despite the success of the Clippers so far this season, no one sees an NBA championship coming to Los Angeles.
Where the championship is to be found appears to be in America’s pastime, with the Dodgers and the Angels. Heading into spring training, there is widespread optimism in Los Angeles for both money-blowing squads based on their free agent acquisitions, and there is even talk about a World Series solely in LA, between the two monetary powerhouses. The Dodgers have added all-star caliber firepower in Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Zack Greinke and Ryu Hyun-jin since the management changed to the Magic Johnson consortium. Likewise, the Angels have landed that Albert Pujols guy, CJ Wilson, and now Josh Hamilton, this year’s prize free agent. So why is everything not beautiful and sunny in downtown Los Angeles?
Compatibility. Comfort. The ability to mesh with new teammates. And the pressure of performing in a major market. Look at the slump Pujols had to start the 2012 campaign. That slump, combined with the unpredictable start by the rest of the team, was enough to keep the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim out of the playoffs. They still finished with an 89 win-season, which was good for only THIRD place in a suddenly talent-filled American League West. And for the Dodgers, they now face the same problem. With unlimited money comes unlimited possibilities,and unlimited potential for disaster. For the Dodgers and the Angels for that matter, any result short of the World Series (maybe the league championship series) will be looked upon as a travesty. Los Angeles is a city that expects to bring a championship home every year and if the Dodgers and/or Angels don’t make that vision a reality THIS season, 2013 will have been a failure as a season. A fast start is mandatory and a strong finish is equally necessary.
Interestingly enough, the lone success story of 2012 for the city of Los Angeles was the Kings, a bunch of scrappy fighters that no one could have predicted would rise up to become Stanley Cup champions. After serving as on-the-road warriors throughout the NHL playoffs, the 8th seeded LA Kings brought home the trophy, much to the delight of the city craving a championship. There, finally, was something to smile about last year. But then came the NHL lockout, because the NHL had to be just like the NBA and the NFL and shorten the season only to find that the sides would reconcile their differences after ruining the off-season. And now, with a 48 game schedule, the Kings have a small window to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. The Kings rode a roller coaster of momentum into the postseason and in turn stunned the world with their postseason run. Now with the off-season being spent on figuring out a new player’s association instead of practicing power plays and defense, the playing field has been leveled, as all NHL teams are not fully prepared for this season. For the Kings, a slow start could also mean missing the playoffs, adding to the demise of the city’s sports fans.
Now there will be people who would disagree, and be blindly optimistic about the state of Los Angeles sports. But the sports fans of today are fans of instant gratification. The Lakers haven’t won a title since (gulp) 2009-2010. The Dodgers haven’t won a title since 1988. The Clippers have never won a title. The Angels haven’t won a title since 2002. And the Kings just won the title, raising expectations for a franchise that is undergoing the same trauma as all of the other teams that have experienced the lockout. As a Los Angeles sports fan, I hope to every God that I am wrong with my gut feeling. But as a writer and an objective observer, I can’t help but notice that it is a sad state for the Los Angeles sports teams. Hopefully Magic Johnson can work his namesake in all four of the major sports.

 

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Sammy Scherr
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