NFL Season Wrap Up: Analysis, Awards and Much More.

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The greatest sport in America has played its final regular season game. As I sit here writing this article, I am both excited and sad at this reality. Part of me is excited for the playoffs to start, but the other part is upset this regular season is over. We have a number of story lines each season but this year just was different; it was a special year to say the least.

I could write all day about the things that really impressed me but I will only talk about a few of my favorites:

Record Breakers & Chasers

Calvin Johnson- I wanted to see Calvin eclipse the 2000 receiving yards this season. I think what Jerry did was more spectacular (given it is the age of the quarterback and enormous offensive outputs) but you can’t take that away from Megatron. Madden Curse?

Adrian Peterson- Can you believe it? I think that may have been the greatest second half I have seen out of a running back, ESPECIALLY one coming off a major knee surgery. I really wish AD broke that record in a passing era.

Single Season Sack Record- What a chase we had going down to the final days between Watt, Smith & Von Miller. Ultimately the record wasn’t broken but it was great to watch these three defensive player of the year candidates make it interesting.

Rookie Quarterbacks

The ideology of allowing rookie quarterbacks to learn on the bench is in the past; I believe this to be due to increased responsibilities and expanded offenses on both the high school and college levels. Luck and RGIII were different breeds of quarterbacks coming into the draft but look at Russell Wilson & even Ryan Tannehill. Luck, RGIII and Wilson all have led their teams to the playoffs! TO THE PLAYOFFS!! Wilson is such a great story; he was a cast off of his college team, transfer to Wisconsin, drafted as a project and now is in the Rookie of the Year race. Even Foles & Weeden did well, at times, this season.

Injury Comebacks

Do I really need to expand on this one? Peyton Manning is back and possibly better than ever after dangerous neck surgery. He started the season off a little slow but Manning picked it up to usual form. When his career is all said and done, I think he may go down as arguably the best to have ever played the game. There is a very elite group and he is definitely in it.

Adrian Peterson. I can’t say enough about this guy as he is a freak of nature; I think he may be the only human that could have responded from the injury like he did.

Passing Records Were Meant to Be Broken…Unfortunately.

The NFL is ever-changing and as fans we must learn to deal with the changes. I have a firm stance on NFL Passing Records being broken; I am not very impressed. Rules have changed to allow offenses to flourish thus teams are now passing 40/50 times per game instead of the 20/30 in the past. I commend players on passing for 5000 yards and breaking rookie passing yard records but it’s not my thing.

It’s not about how you start, but how you finish.

The Chicago Bears looked like a lock to make the playoffs. We are now finished with the regular season and the Bears will be watching the playoffs from their homes. In the last five games of the NFL regular season, the following teams finished:

Packers 4-1, Vikings 4-1, Seahawks 5-0, Redskins 5-0, Bears 2-3, Giants 2-3, Bengals 4-1, Colts 4-1, Patriots 4-1, Broncos 5-0, Ravens 1-4, Steelers 2-3, Texans 2-3.

Do I need to say much more?

Defense Wins Championships..and Offense too.

Of the Top 10 teams for Total Offense and Total Defense, 6 of the top 10 offenses made the playoffs while 5 of the top 10 defenses made the playoffs. The old saying was offense wins games ans defense win championships but, in this new NFL, you need an offense or you won’t keep up.

… Moving Forward (and backwards)
Preseason Picks

In the AFC, I was correct on 3 of 4 division winners and 4 of 6 playoff teams (Really Pittsburgh?!). The Bills- what a great pick by me.

As for the NFC, 2 of 4 division winners and 3 of 6 playoffs teams. Two teams (Cowboys & Bears) were down to the final game. Giants not making playoffs? Called that one…

My Super Bowl Prediction was: Packers over Ravens. I think I am still in good shape on this one (Green Bay at least) but I think the sputtering Ravens may not make it. I remember when I was doing my preseason picks and I couldn’t decide between the Ravens & the Texans. In the end, I chose the Ravens because I thought they would be healthier than the Texans, who seem to end up hurt every season. Well, looks like I was wrong on who would have more injuries…

Current NFL Playoff Predictions

When the Broncos were everyones preseason pick, I thought it was just a fad. Peyton Manning and that Bronco defense are the real deal and I expect them to come out of the AFC.

Part of me wants to take my preseason pick of the Packers but I think the 49ers do it this year.

In all reality, I believe both conferences are wide open and I would not be surprised to see any NFC team in the Super Bowl and the majority of the AFC teams (besides the Colts & Bengals) as well.

…Now the Good Stuff

NFL Awards Predictions

Coach of the Year

The Candidates: Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, John Fox, Mike Smith, Chuck Pagano (kinda?), Mike Shanahan

The Winner: Carroll. Call it what you like, the Seahawks were the best team at home this season. They nearly won the NFC West with a rookie quarterback. I think Harbaugh is a close second, especially after making a gutsy move to the second year quarterback.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Candidates: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson

The Winner: Manning. I want to give AD my vote but Manning came back from a surgery that may have ended his football career. What Peterson did was absolutely remarkable but Manning couldn’t throw a football this time last year (granted AP probably couldn’t walk that well).

Defensive Rookie of the Year

The Candidates: Janoris Jenkins, Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner, Casey Hayward

The Winner: Jenkins. I was so impressed with Jenkins every game this season because he is a game-changer. The rookie had the ability to defend any wide receiver in the NFL. Kuechly may lead the league in tackles but Jenkins top 10 ability showed. This kid is going to be a superstar for a long time (IF, and a big IF, he can keep his act together)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The Candidates: Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson

The Winner: RGIII. I honestly think all three deserve this award but RGIII will take it in the end. Wilson and RGIII have nearly identical numbers besides a few hundred rushing yard difference. I really like what Andrew Luck did this season but I do think he finishes third in this race.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Candidates: Von Miller, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt

The Winner: Watt. I think Miller is a very close second but Watt was the most dominant player on the field for the majority of the season. While Miller may be the more complete player, Watt wrecked havoc week after week; he even had 16 pass deflections!!

Offensive Player of the Year

The Candidates: Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson

The Winner: Peterson. Truly the OPOY! Again, I really wish Peterson broke the rushing record but the second most all-time is pretty damn impressive. Calvin Johnson may finish second in this statistic race.

Most Valuable Player

The Candidates: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson

…… Drum Roll Please…..

The Winner: Manning. I truly think Peterson is the Most Valuable Player to his team (cuz we all know how highly I value Christian Ponder) but we know how the media really votes on these awards; its a quarterback award. The Vikings getting into the playoffs really helped Petersons resume but a rushing record would have even more. Manning was not only good, he was great. 68.6 completion percentage, 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns, 105.8 Rating. More than impressive. Just a few weeks ago I wanted to vote Brady but after a few subpar weeks (for his standard), I think he finishes behind.

Thanks for reading!

Onto the playoffs!!

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NFL Wild Card Weekend: How The Last Four Months Finally Made Sense

Is this the end of the road for Ray Lewis?

Is this the end of the road for Ray Lewis?

16 games. That’s the NFL Regular season, 16 games. That’s 1/5th the amount of games played in the NBA, 1/3rd the games played in the Premiere League, and 1/10th the games played in MLB. It seems almost presumptuous to assume any amount of certainty when seen through this lens of statistical minimalism, but the efficient pragmatism of professional football continues to render the schedules of other sporting leagues nearly obsolete. How superfluous does MLB seem every time a team catches fire on the last month and wins the World Series with hot pitching and a soon to be over-rated hitter (Hello Marco Scuttaro). What is there to possibly learn from the NBA when Greg Popovich sits his entire team in nationally televised games, and Lebron James cruise controls so thoroughly through home games against the Bobcats that he’s forced to pedal his bicycle home to achieve any real exercise–Though, to be fair to Lebron, it takes more effort to bike home than it takes to beat Byron Mullens to the rim. When forced through the most common test–The Human Eye Test—The NFL season simply has no competition. With only 16 games there’s no “cruise control”. With only 16 games there is no “sitting starters”.The New York Giants are talented and inconsistent, we saw it with blowouts over Green Bay, and home losses to the Cowboys. The Pittsburgh Steelers finally got too old. There is no guess work here because the NFL is too violent to leave room for such things. There is a scientific precision that exists inside of such mindless violence, a sort of brilliance from the beast. It’s the great dichotomy of the NFL: with only 16 games we know exactly what teams are when the playoffs come around. So with such knowledge in hand, the plan here is to predict the winners and spreads of Wild Card Weekend based on the facts we already know.

 

The Indianapolis Colts v The Balitmore Ravens

 

Fact: The Colts faced the league’s easiest schedule

Fact: The Colts did not have a road win v. a winning team all season.

Fact: The Colts 5 losses came by an average of 16.5 points.

Fact: The Colts DVOA says they’re not only the worst 11 win team in 20 years, they’re also the worst 10 win team in 20 years.

Fact: Andrew Luck led the league on third and long conversions

Fact: T.Y Hilton ranks as the #1 rookie Wideout and it isn’t very close.

Fact: Andrew Luck is really, really good in the 4th quarter. Top 5 QBR in the 4th Quarter.

Fact: The Ravens have the NFL’s best special teams.

Fact: The Ravens are no longer an elite defense.

Fact: The Ravens are in fact in the bottom half of the league in Yards and Points allowed.

Fact: The Ravens defense has been better since Ray Lewis’ injury.

Fact: Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis coming back isn’t nearly as valuable as Ladarius Webb still being injured.

 

Despite everything I’ve said about facts, this game and the Colts entire season is based around one thing: ChuckStrong. It’s circumstantial in most places, but the NFL is one of the few places where emotional turbulence can factor into statistical relevance. With players being so equally talented, something as emotionally hefty as your cancer beating coach returning to the sidelines can be all the difference. Believe in Chuckstrong.

 

Colts +7. Colts 31, Ravens 24.

 

 

 

The Houston Texans v. The Cincinnati Bengals

 

Fact: Arian Foster had five 100 yard games in his first 9 games.

Fact: Arian Foster had two 100 yard games in his last 7 games.

Fact: Arian Foster had 617 receiving yards in 2011

Fact: Arian Foster had 217 receiving yards in 2012

Fact: In the 4 losses for the 2012 Texans, Arian Foster averaged 46 yards per game.
Fact: Matt Schaub completed 58% of 3rd down plays against the blitz

Fact: Matt Schaub completed 34% of 3rd down plays against 4 pass rushers.

Fact: Matt Schaub makes absolutely no sense statistically.

Fact: The Texans have the worst Special Teams in the NFL.

Fact: The Houston Texans use play action more than all but six teams in the NFL.

Fact: The Bengals give up the most yards per play action in the NFL

Fact: Geno Atkins and J.J Watt are both having MVP Seasons from positions that don’t win MVP Awards.

Fact: The Cincinnati Bengals have the 2nd best wide receiver in the NFL

Fact: The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the league’s bottom 10 receiving corps.

Fact: The Houston Texans allowed the fewest yards to #1 receivers.

Fact: Johnthan Joseph is the best deep ball cornerback in the NFL.

 

Everyone is lining up behind Cincinnati this week because they’re coming in hot and the Texans are having an historically bad falling off. But if you look at the Bengals “hot streak” you’ll notice a major flaw: They’re beating the league’s worst teams. It started with a win over the New York Giants that has now lost a significant value. They proceeded to stomp the AFC West and Eagles(like everyone else), and finished it off with wins over the AFC’s New York Giants(The Steelers) and barely beat a Ravens team playing its backups. Don’t forget that this is the same team who lost to the Dolphins, Steelers, and Cowboys at home. In the matchup of “Team Beating Bad Teams” v. “Winning Team Getting Complacent” I’ll take the latter.

 

Texans -4.5. Houston 23, Bengals 10.

 

 

The Minnesota Vikings v. The Green Bay Packers

 

Fact: Adrian Peterson is having the greatest season in the history of running backs. The word greatest is naturally subjective, but the stats remove it rather quickly.

Fact: Adrian Peterson averaged 6 yards a carry. No importance just a hilarious fact.

Fact: Adrian Peterson is not a human being. He may be a robot, an X-Men, or an Alien but a human being he is not.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

Fact: Charles Woodson, Randall Cobb, and to an extent Jordy Nelson did not play in that game.

Fact: The Green Bay Packers have the best wide receiving corps since the 2005 Indinapolis Colts.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings have the league’s worst rated secondary.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings #1 Corner, Antoine Winfield, will be wearing a cast.

Fact: The Green Bay Packers give up the most yards to #1 wide receivers

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings #1 receiver, Percy Harvin, is out for the season.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings have one of the league’s five worst receiving units

Fact: Christian Ponder did not complete a pass longer than 15 yards from Weeks 9 through Weeks 15.

Fact: Christian Ponder is the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings

Fact: Christian Ponder is a starting quarterback for an NFL franchise in the playoffs. I’m not kidding.

Fact: No, seriously, he didn’t complete a pass over 15 yards for 6 weeks.

Fact: That stat is more impressive than Adrian Peterson’s yard per carry stat. It’s historically atrocious.

Fact: Aaron Rodgers yards per pass decreases with the number of pass rushers sent at him.

Fact: The Minnesota Vikings blitz less than 28 other NFL teams.

 

Adrian Peterson has turned a 3 win team into a 10 win team. A W.A.R of 7 is great for a baseball player; a W.A.R of 7 for an NFL player is one of the great feats in NFL history. But the sad fact here is that the Green Bay Packers are a vastly more talented team. Peterson has ran for 200 yards in both games against the Packers and both games were still dominated by the Packers. This is the NFL in 2013, a passing league at its core, and comparing Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder is like akin to the hotness of women at 3 A.M with alcohol in your system inside a dark room, and women at 3 A.M completely sober in the light. It’s just not very fair.

 

Packers -8. Packers 34, Vikings 17.

 

 

The Washington Redskins v. The Seattle Seahawks

 

Fact: Russel Wilson had a statistically superior season to RGIII and Andrew Luck.

Fact: Russel Wilson has no chance of winning Rookie of the Year.

Fact: The 2012 Seattle Seahawks rank as one of the most balanced teams in 20 years.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks have a Top 5 Offense, Top 5 Defense, and Top 3 Special Teams.

Fact: Of the 5 losses the Seahawks had, 3 of them came on the road in division games.

Fact: The Seahawks lost by an average of 5 points a game.

Fact: The Seahawks never lost a game by more than one touchdown.

Fact: The Seahawks scored 50 points twice and also scored the most points on the San Fransisco Defense.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks rank in the Top 5 of the following categories: Rushing Efficiency, Passing Efficiency, 1st 2nd and 3rd down yards per play, red zone scoring, red zone defense.

Fact: The Seahawks are the worst team in the league when facing a blitzing corner.

Fact: The Redskins blitz a corner more than any team in the NFL.

Fact: The Seahawks rank 21st in rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

Fact: The Redskins have Robert Griffin the Third.

Fact: Robert Griffin the Third>RGIII

Fact:The Seattle Seahawks have the league’s best cornerbacks.

Fact: The Redskins are the #1 team against the blitz.

Fact: The Seattle Seahawks rank 25th in blitz attempts.

 

As I said before, Seattle doesn’t just rank high in team efficiency, they’re historically great. As FootballOutsiders points out, only twice before has a team as good as Seattle not won its division and had to go on the road: The 2009 Ravens and the 2008 Eagles. Both teams won by double digits. I expect a similar score line here because my Seahawks to the Super Bowl campaign is heating up.

 

Seattle 27, Redskins 14

 

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NFL Halfway Season Awards

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The Cover 4 will feature a number of writers to cover a variety of topics. This article is by our very own Bru General Peppers, Sports Activist.

NFL Halfway Season Awards (or How I learned to Stop Parlaying the Packers on Three Teamers)

Original? Nay, but this is the NFL we’re talking about here, where originality is looked at with the same disdain as undersized quarterbacks and SEC skill players with “character issues”. We’ve reached the half way point of the NFL Season and it’s time to make presumptions based on a few facts and a whole lot of redundant opinions. I’m psyched.

MVP: Ben Rothlisberger

While everyone else fawns over Matt Ryan, Big Ben has quietly carried the Steelers to a 4-3 record despite injuries that have kept Troy Palomalu out of nearly every game, James Harrison out of half of them, 4/5ths of his offensive line seeing injury at some point, and his three top running backs missing various amounts of time. He’s Top 5 in QB Rating, Top 10 in Yards and Touchdowns, and is doing so with a patchwork offensive unit. He is single-handedly carrying a banged up Steelers squad to a top unit in the AFC. He’s the most under-rated player in the NFL and it’s not even close.

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning

Kurt Angle once won a gold medal with a broken neck. True story. What does this have to do with Peyton Manning? Nothing, really. I just love relaying Kurt Angle facts where I can. Peyton Manning is going to win the AFC with a surgically repaired neck and he’s going to make it look easy.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J Watt

Let me say what everyone’s been thinking, “When did white guys take over the defensive side of the ball”. Between Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, Justin Smith, and now J.J Watt, the astigmatism towards Caucasian defensive players has been blown out of the window.

Comeback Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson

You could switch this award with Offensive Player of the Year and I’d be ok with it. What Adrian Peterson has done is beyond amazing; recovering from an ACL Injury with a normal recovery time of 10 months in only 4 months is a feat in itself, but coming back at full strength with no signs of debilitation is an evolutionary miracle. He’s no longer AD; from now on we’re calling him Wolverine.

The Jake Delhomme Anti-MVP of the Year: Michael Vick

This has alot to do with my Mike Holmgren Worst Coach of the Year Award Selection(Spoilers: It’s Andy Reid) but 15 turnovers in 7 games is hard for any coach to deal with. He’s got a sub 80 passer rating, sub 60% completion percentage, and isn’t even running well. He’s cost the Eagles at least 3 games this season.

The Mike Holmgren Worst Coach of the Year Award: Andy Reid

Let’s say you worked as a manager at McDonalds and your boss told you “if you don’t increase the amount of money your store makes, then you’re fired.” Let’s say you had the ability to bring back the McRib and you just decided “Screw it, we’re good without it.” Andy Reid is the McDonald’s manager and LeSean McCoy is the McRib. Andy Reid is doing such a bad job with so much talent that I he bumped Norv Turner from his 5 year winning streak. That’s impressive.

The Paul Heyman Award (Coach/Manager of the Year): Joe Philbin

If you are like me and 99% of the rest of America then you love Honey Boo Boo. You also watched Hard Knocks and thought, “Man, this team has literally nobody I know.” They’re currently leading the AFC East with a rookie QB, no Vontae Davis, and three wideouts who can’t ride certain rollercoasters at Six Flags due to height demands.

Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin is the more flashy of the two but Andrew Luck has done more with less and is carrying a winning record to boot. He’s been flat out amazing while throwing 42 times a game, a record for rookie quarterbacks. This is the same team that went 1-15 last year, and frankly, he’s the only thing that’s changed. If this team ends up with 7 wins he should get MVP nods because the Colts stink.

Best Team: The New York Giants

I have never been more wrong in my life. I thought the Giants would fall off and not even make the playoffs. I thought the loss of Jacobs and Manningham would crush this offense. I thought the injuries would catch up to them, but nothing phases these guys. They can run. They can pass. They can rush the passer and stop the run. They’re the best road team we’ve ever seen. They can win shootouts(See Giants/Bucs) or they can win tough defensive battles. Barring major injury this team will be in the NFC Title Game.
Most Disappointing Team: The San Diego Chargers

Congratulations A.J Smith, you’ve now won this award for 7 years straight! Since Norv Turner showed up, the San Diego Chargers have gotten progressively worse each year. The vaunted rushing game? Dead. Philip Rivers ascent to elite? Dead. The Elite Scoring Defense? Dead. Vincent Jackson, LT, Merriman? Gone. They’re losing to the Browns 7-6 and giving up 35 points in a half to a guy with half a neck. They don’t draft well, they don’t do the little things well, they don’t do…well…anything well.

Super Bowl Prediction: The Giants v. The Steelers

When the Steelers win the next 4 games and sit at 8-3 and the Giants continue stomping everything in their path, you’ll hear more and more about this matchup.

Bru General Peppers

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