The Betting Corner: NBA Playoffs Jun 3, 2013

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat 8.30PM (ET) TNT

(Series Tied 3-3)

7397300After many highs and lows the readers and I have experienced in this series, tonight‘s game is for all the marbles. The key for the Heat tonight is getting production from someone other than Lebron. If they get this, the Pacers will have trouble keeping this close. For the Pacers, as its been the whole series, keep the defensive pressure up and play consistent and confidently. If they do this they will take the throne of the new top dog of the East. From a Vegas standpoint, I believe this game will be  closer than 7 and until the Heat can show me there big 3 is truly still a “big 3” all-star lineup, I can’t give the points.

Play:
Pacers +7
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Alex Plumb
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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The Betting Corner: NBA Playoffs May 24, 2013

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat 8.30PM (ET) TNT

(Heat Lead Series 1-0)

9d65c1d1d6004297a2048250088dc129-08da78f6fe074580985fab989d3e1053-3After a tight OT thriller in game 1, I see game 2 to have the real offensive flow to it. Although both teams defenses were solid in game 1, Spolestra always seems to know how to make great game 2 adjustments as he did last series against the bulls.  The pacers key to winning tonight is controlling the boards and not letting the game get out of hand to early with the home crowd. At the end of the day, the heat offense is to much for the pacers in this one and a potential lights out performance from a d wade.

Play:
Heat -7.5

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Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Alex Plumb
Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Friday, April 5th, 2013

31139365-mjs_brewers_spring_training4-4-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Kansas City at Chi White Sox Under 8.5 (-110)

Season YTD: 8-0 +8.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 1-2

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-2

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 2-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 2-2

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 2-1

We keep the undefeated start to our season alive with an easy win in Chicago.  Other than a 4 run fifth inning, nothing but zeros and we take it to the bank.  In hindsight I regret not betting the Yankee game but what can you do.  In our futures watch, Pitt squanders their home opening series to the Cubs and Oakland splits with Seattle 2-2.  Both Atlanta and Cleveland fail to sweep and lose their first games of the season.  On a full card Friday, only 1 play again.  Let see if we can make it 9.

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1 Unit – Arizona at Milwaukee (-116)

It’s the much anticipated debut for Kyle Lohse after signing late with the Brewers this spring.  Some will say he held off to long for his contract but he’s on a team now so that’s all behind us.  That being said, this line kind of baffles me.  Opening up in the -115 to -120 range, in his home opener, with a new team, after going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA last year.  Vegas is acting like he just came off Tommy John surgery or something. He missed a few games in spring… Who the f#&k cares!  Most pitchers are working on mechanical issues early on in spring anyways.  He was just doing it with Scott Boras in lovely So Cal rather than against a bunch of AAA guys who are trying to make an opening day roster.

Not only that, but Milwaukee doesn’t exactly have a bunch of scrubs behind him on offense.  Hell, the Twins just took 2 of 3 from the AL champ Tigers with just Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham.  The Brewers march to the plate the likes of Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun (who is 2 for 5 in his career against Miley with 2 HR), and Aramis Ramirez.  That’s a pretty solid 2 though 4 if you ask me.

Oh yeah, and another thing, last years stats don’t lie.  Lohse went 1-0 in 11 2/3 innings last year against the Diamondbacks, giving up only 1 run.  The D-Backs counter punch – Wade Miley – gave up 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 sporting a 1-1 record.  Miley just hasn’t been the same pitcher that started off hot last April (3-0 with a 1.29 ERA).  He was 2-2 with a 5.90 ERA in September and ended the season with a no decision in October giving up 3 ER in that game.  Not to mention this spring he gave up 11 runs in 13.1 IP and batters are sporting a .333 average against him.  Yes, I realize Lohse may have a tiny pitch limit attached in this one (That’s really the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play).  It’s most likely going to be just south of 100 pitches.  I don’t think the Brewers bullpen will struggle after having a day off I highly doubt Axford goes 0-2 to start off the season with save opportunities (if it even comes to that).

 

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Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling. We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Opening Day

ccsabathia

Opening day is finally here. It’s always hard to handicap the first week of any baseball
season. What do you pay attention to? Do you just look at team acquisitions? Do you
pay attention to Spring Training? Do you look at specific match-ups? How about a
specific pitchers history vs a specific team?

In my opinion, its a little bit of everything rolled into one. The fewer relevant stats that
are available the more you’ve got to go with your gut and experience. For opening day,
the lines have been up since 8:30 AM PST this morning and they’ve already begun
moving against us (for the most part). Getting the best possible line in baseball is
crucial, but in a very different way than football or basketball. The spread doesn’t
move (with the exception of totals), but your bets can become more expensive or hold
less value with moneyline movements in the wrong direction. Most people don’t realize
that if every one of your bets jump from -110 to -125, it forces you to win an extra 3.18%
of your bets to break even. That may not seem like a lot, but when you’re betting every
day and grinding out an entire season, winning 56 games out of 100 is way different
than winning 53 games out of 100.

For me, I’ve got 3 accounts with 5Dimes, William Hill, and Station Casinos giving me a
greater opportunity to shop around. But enough small talk. To the first plays of the
season.

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**1 Unit – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (+118)

This line opened up this morning at +125 but has since moved in the wrong direction
(for us anyways). Jon Lester has killed it this spring giving up only 2 earned runs in 24
IP (0.75 ERA) while striking out 20. Even before this spring I was high on Lester for this
season so it only validates where he stands as the Sox ace. His counterpart in CC
Sabathia has been nursing his new surgically repaired elbow (removed bone
fragments) since October and his low 10 IP and 5.40 ERA this spring tells me he can’t
possibly be 100%.

Jump to the two offenses, New York is aging and riddled with injuries. For Monday’s
game; Granderson – OUT, Texeira – OUT, Jeter – Day to Day (unlikely to play), Hafner –
Day to Day (unlikely to play). That leaves us with the likes of Brett Gardner, Jayson Nix,
Eduardo Nunez, and Ben Francisco to respectively take their spots in the lineup. The
Sox are short David Ortiz but have the firepower to fill the void with their new offseason
acquisitions. Seems like a no brainer at + odds. Contemplated a 1.5 unit play but it’s
still Opening Day in New York City and in no way will be a cake walk for the sox.

___

1 Unit – Detroit Tigers (-1.5) at Minnesota Twins (-125)

There’s 180 million reasons for this play, and I think anyone who’s got a pulse knows
who each of those reasons are pointing to. Justin Verlander is now the highest paid
pitcher in MLB history and rightfully so. He’s a past MVP, CY Young award winner, and
has World Series experience. That last point is another reason why this is a solid play
IMO. The last time Verlander pitched on a competitive stage was game one of the
2012 World Series where he had one of his worst outings of the year. He didn’t make it
past the fourth inning while giving up five earned runs. The Tigers would later get
swept in 4 with Verlander unable to even start a second game. With the new contract
behind him, you know he’s going to want to come out strong not only to make amends
for the last game he pitched; but to prove he’s worth the money as well.

Vance Worley on the other hand is a #3 starter at best had he been on a contending
team and won’t be able to subdue the defending American League champs. Outside
of Morneau, Mauer, and Willingham, the Twins simply don’t have the personal to go
punch for punch with the Tiger’s, regardless Verlander is on the mound or not.

___

1 Unit – St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-105)

I Still have yet to bet this game because I think by tomorrow night we might be able to
get it at Under 9. Regardless it does or doesn’t, I still like the play at 8.5. I’m a little
baffled as to why most the other totals on this card are at 7.5 or even less. Wainwright
sports a career 2.54 ERA in 10 games against Arizona who is now without the likes of
Chris Young and Justin Upton via trades.

Ian Kennedy has struggled against St. Louis in the past but this Cardinals team begins
the season with veterans David Freese and Rafael Furcal on the 15 day DL. With both
teams having fresh bullpens, this is the kind of game I see finishing in the 4-2 range.

___

Good luck, and lets start off Opening Day with a bang.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

 

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling. We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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