Buc’n the Trend: A Pirates Fan’s View

Andrew McCutchen

It was just over a year ago when I was coaxed by one of my best friends to fork over a couple hundred dollars and purchase season tickets for the remaining two months of Pittsburgh Pirate games. At the time, it seemed like a good investment. The team was 10-plus games over .500 and had a favorable position in the NL Wild Card race. My buddy and I wanted to guarantee we’d be able to buy playoff tickets.  But as everyone knows, the Pirates imploded. A team that was 63-47 on August 8 spectacularly collapsed, winning just 16 of its last 52 games. Despite having tickets to every game in September, I did not attend PNC Park at all that month.

So when it came time to renew my season ticket package in early 2013, I wanted no part. I dodged phone calls from any number that began with 412-325. This team had way too many question marks. Would A.J. Burnett regress from his 2012 form? How would Jason Grilli handle the closer role (even though I tend to believe the closer role to be overrated)? Hell, Jonathan Sanchez made the starting rotation. There wasn’t much belief that this team would be anything more than a 75 to 78-win team. Four months later, and the Pirates have captivated Pittsburgh. The Pirates are tied for the most wins in baseball and lead their division by four games. Various websites list their odds to make playoffs as 99 percent.

For the long-suffering Pirates fans, it’s nearly impossible to grasp the reality that not only will the Pirates break their 21-year-old streak of losing seasons, but that this Pirates team is, by winning percentage, the best team in baseball. We knew the Pirates would likely become contenders at some point this decade. One would think 21 consecutive years of losing seasons would produce talent from the resulting high draft picks, but when you give a pea-brained moron like former GM Dave Littlefield six years at the helm, you end up with nothing more some 100-loss teams and an empty PNC Park. It wasn’t until Littlefield was fired and replaced by Neal Huntington in 2007 that the franchise’s fortunes turned around. Sure, Huntington presided over five losing seasons, but under his leadership the Pirates have been drafting players like Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole and Justin Wilson instead of Pacific Rim all-stars Danny Moskos, Bryan Bullington and Clint Johnston.

You could have made a case for Huntington to be fired after last season’s collapse. But he took a gamble this offseason on several players who have become key contributors. The demand for Francisco Liriano was so little that Liriano signed a contract that guarantees him just $1 million this season (to be fair, this came after it was discovered Liriano broke his non-throwing arm). Vin Mazzaro was acquired in a minor-league trade and then designated for assignment during spring training. Jeanmar Gomez was a head-scratching acquisition at the time. Now, Mazzaro and Gomez have provided front-end stability to the bullpen with an ability to eat innings. Mark Melancon spent much of last season in AAA but now sports a sub-1.00 ERA.

None of those moves were considered high-profile transactions. What they have done though is contribute to a team that has revived baseball in Pittsburgh. And after spending money to see such greats as Chris Stynes, Bobby Hill, Daryle Ward, Tony Armas, Mike Williams, Jose Castillo, John VanBenschoten and Tike Redman, winning baseball is way better than I thought. Oh, and I regret not renewing my tickets.
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Brendan Shorts
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Buc’n the Trend: A Pirates Fan’s View

Andrew McCutchenIt was just over a year ago when I was coaxed by one of my best friends to fork over a couple hundred dollars and purchase season tickets for the remaining two months of Pittsburgh Pirate games. At the time, it seemed like a good investment. The team was 10-plus games over .500 and had a favorable position in the NL Wild Card race. My buddy and I wanted to guarantee we’d be able to buy playoff tickets.  But as everyone knows, the Pirates imploded. A team that was 63-47 on August 8 spectacularly collapsed, winning just 16 of its last 52 games. Despite having tickets to every game in September, I did not attend PNC Park at all that month.

So when it came time to renew my season ticket package in early 2013, I wanted no part. I dodged phone calls from any number that began with 412-325. This team had way too many question marks. Would A.J. Burnett regress from his 2012 form? How would Jason Grilli handle the closer role (even though I tend to believe the closer role to be overrated)? Hell, Jonathan Sanchez made the starting rotation. There wasn’t much belief that this team would be anything more than a 75 to 78-win team. Four months later, and the Pirates have captivated Pittsburgh. The Pirates are tied for the most wins in baseball and lead their division by four games. Various websites list their odds to make playoffs as 99 percent.

For the long-suffering Pirates fans, it’s nearly impossible to grasp the reality that not only will the Pirates break their 21-year-old streak of losing seasons, but that this Pirates team is, by winning percentage, the best team in baseball. We knew the Pirates would likely become contenders at some point this decade. One would think 21 consecutive years of losing seasons would produce talent from the resulting high draft picks, but when you give a pea-brained moron like former GM Dave Littlefield six years at the helm, you end up with nothing more some 100-loss teams and an empty PNC Park. It wasn’t until Littlefield was fired and replaced by Neal Huntington in 2007 that the franchise’s fortunes turned around. Sure, Huntington presided over five losing seasons, but under his leadership the Pirates have been drafting players like Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole and Justin Wilson instead of Pacific Rim all-stars Danny Moskos, Bryan Bullington and Clint Johnston.

You could have made a case for Huntington to be fired after last season’s collapse. But he took a gamble this offseason on several players who have become key contributors. The demand for Francisco Liriano was so little that Liriano signed a contract that guarantees him just $1 million this season (to be fair, this came after it was discovered Liriano broke his non-throwing arm). Vin Mazzaro was acquired in a minor-league trade and then designated for assignment during spring training. Jeanmar Gomez was a head-scratching acquisition at the time. Now, Mazzaro and Gomez have provided front-end stability to the bullpen with an ability to eat innings. Mark Melancon spent much of last season in AAA but now sports a sub-1.00 ERA.

None of those moves were considered high-profile transactions. What they have done though is contribute to a team that has revived baseball in Pittsburgh. And after spending money to see such greats as Chris Stynes, Bobby Hill, Daryle Ward, Tony Armas, Mike Williams, Jose Castillo, John VanBenschoten and Tike Redman, winning baseball is way better than I thought. Oh, and I regret not renewing my tickets.

Tainted Love

Ryan BraunBaseball is viewed as our national pastime. But in actuality steroids are making baseball past its time for many other reasons. Recently, Ryan Braun became the newest member of baseball’s CSUC, the Convicted Steroid Users Club. He has now destroyed his image of a hard-working power hitter for a hard-nosed team in a blue-collar city. Once viewed as one of the game’s up-and-coming stars, Braun must now live with this stain for the rest of his life. And baseball now has another huge bruise it must cover up, but I’m afraid this one will require some serious reconstructive surgery.

Braun made a splash in the big leagues as a rookie, swatting home run after home run, leading the Milwaukee Brewers to new winning ways. Before, fans only showed up to MillerPark because it was sponsored by a beer company. Now, along with Prince Fielder, fans had something to gloat about and root for. From the naked eye, he looked like a medium-sized built player who just had an unbelievable swing and eye for the ball. Looking back at it now, it all makes too much sense.

With steroids and PEDs becoming a major issue in the post-Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds era, Braun had been viewed as one of the good guys. A role model for young players, if you will. Hard work and dedication can pay off. The adage, “If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying,” is a myth. Now the only thing mythical about Braun is Braun himself, and this represents another devastating blow to the game of baseball.

The main crux of the issue lies with the deterrence for using performance enhancing drugs. Even though players know it’s bad for the sport, why do they continue to take banned substances? It’s because they get paid the big bucks to produce. This is why over the years many owners and managers kept their mouths shut and looked the other way. They saw all the butts in the seats for every game. Revenue was up. Home runs were up. Popularity was up. The only thing that was down was the integrity of the game and that didn’t matter one bit to those profiting owners. Teams generated money and players got a piece of the pie. Both parties won.

Money is the key ingredient to this all. Baseball thinks it can suspend players 50 and 100 games, and have that be enough to prevent players using PEDs. I don’t think so. Sure, strides have been made, but going from awful to terrible is still pretty bad. And when a superstar like Braun is a member of the CUSC, the game’s image and integrity plummets. No one cares when the stupid bully cheats on a test, but when the class valedictorian does, it’s a big deal.

Let’s examine how this whole Braun thing has played out. He first was suspected of steroid use, but avoided punishment because of a technicality. The handler of the evidence “handled” it in a way that was against protocol, and Braun’s representation jumped on this mistake. It’s like when a guilty party gets off because he has a really good lawyer. Everyone knows he is guilty but the system does not allow the right justice to be served. Secondly, in this entire process, he maintained his innocence, still holding on to the last ounces of trust we had left in him as fans of the game. With his PED use now confirmed, he not only cheated the game, but all the people associated with it. Players, owners, managers, family, friends and especially us, the fans, the ones who pay his salary. We were duped.

With Braun reaching an agreement with MLB, he is now suspended for the remainder of the season and gets to hide away on vacation and let his negative rep linger in the background. People won’t forget, but they will forgive as soon as he starts hitting home runs next year. Especially with the attention now on Alex Rodriguez, Braun might actually end up as the good guy, relatively.

The bottom line is that players are cheating to produce. Then, they get paid because of their production. And no suspension of games is going to take a significant chunk of change out of their pocket to deter them from cheating until they get caught. Sure it is $3 million, but what is three million compared to the $52 million they are making because of their PED use. It’s almost as if it is a tax that if they are careful enough, they might not have to pay.

With Braun’s guilt, it just adds another big name to the list of stars who cheated, except this guy represented a glimmer of hope in a new of era of trying to rid baseball of steroids. In fact, he now has put baseball and its integrity in an even worse state. He is the bad apple that has spoiled the bunch. It does not matter that many players are playing the game the right way. Braun cheated, he signed his big contract, and now has to face a slap on the wrist for his mistake, while baseball faces the brunt of the punishment. Do you think Braun cares he might be hated every time he plays on the road from now on? Maybe. But he will quickly forget about this problem whenever he checks his bank account.

I propose that baseball needs to enact clauses in all contracts stating that any player guilty of steroid or PED use will have his contract voided at the team’s discretion. It is not about the number of games he misses. It is about the big picture financial impact that getting caught will have on a player. Take away the guaranteed contract. Take away the sponsors. Take away the stability. Then, only then, can you have a deterrent to improve the tainted image on the game. Good luck baseball. This fan is rooting for you.

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Paul Culley
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The Betting Corner: Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

AP311845831536_70g6tzi3_8ovap3cw4-16-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Kansas City at Atlanta (Over 7)

WIN: 1 Unit – Detroit at Seattle (Over 7)

Season YTD: 20-16 +1.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-10

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 12-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-9

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-7

___

A much needed sweep for the day brings us out of the red for the season.  Finally we get the better end of the stick with a few late covers.  Atlanta tacks on 3 solo shots and Detroit picks up 2 for the late wins in the 8th innings.

___

1 Unit – Philadelphia at Cincinatti

After their game was postponed in the 9th in a 0-0 draw, Philly and Cincy get back at it Wednesday for game 3 of their opening series against one another.  Even on the road, the matchup favors Philadelphia so were going with them as a live underdog.

John Lannan (2.77 ERA in 2 no decisions this year) faces off against Mike Leake (6.75 ERA in 2 no decisions this year).  Leake has struggled against the Fightin’ Phils in the past holding an 0-3 mark with a 9.33 ERA in 5 starts.  Lannan on the other hand is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 4 career starts against Cincy.  We’ve seen lately too that outside of Aroldis Chapman, the Cincinatti bullpen has been struggling to get anybody out.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

AP13041512215_uqgvr2jr_0p3nqa284-15-13 Recap:

CANCELED: 1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Under 10)

Season YTD: 18-16 -.24 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-9

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 11-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-6

___

Didn’t get to take advantage of the wind, snow, and cold as the game was cancelled.  Game has been rescheduled today and has been pushed back a few hours.  We’re not betting it again though as there probably won’t be any snow and the wind is blowing out to left today.  Still 2 totals on the table though.

___

1 Unit – Kansas City at Atlanta (Over 7)

This is one of those law of averages plays.  Guthrie has been good so far this year and Medlen has been great.  But if you think about it, for at the very least, to get a push in this game each team has to score just 3 runs.  This COULD definitely go under but if this game were to be played out 100 times, my odds are that at least 60 will push or go over the total.

___

1 Unit – Detroit at Seattle (Over 7)

This game’s somewhat the same as the first.  Doug Fister has been good so far this year but he’s not going to maintain a 2.77 ERA all year.   Veteran Aaron Harang makes his first appearance of the year against the American League Champion Tigers.  I don’t see any way both these teams can’t score a minimum of 3 runs a piece to at least get a push.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Monday, April 15, 2013

AP831628301815oOo_f7f38bm3_jv9cxzaz4-14-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

LOSS: 1 Unit – Colorado at San Diego (Over 8)

Season YTD: 18-16 -.24 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-8

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 11-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-6

___

I’ll be the first to say that the Colorado/SD game was off.  Couldn’t have guessed both pitchers we be lights out in this one and I can live with that though.  But in our Cincy game, I bet you can’t guess what happened.  You’ll never guess it.  OK I’ll tell you, we get screwed again by another late inning bullpen blowup by the Reds.  It would be one thing if this losing streak we’re on was me not doing my research and just being on the wrong side of games.  But over the last week it’s just one unlikely thing after another keeping us from wins.  Pitt put up 10 runs over 2 innings blowing our 5-0 lead.  We ended yesterday in the red for the first time of the season basically giving back our 8-0 start to the season.  Talk about a roller coaster start to the season in only the first two weeks.

I still believer we’re on the right side of these games but the breaks just aren’t going our way.  You see I’m venting a bit, but get used to it.  it’s a long season and the only guarantee I gave at the beginning of the season (and after our 8-0 start to the season) was that there would be losing streaks to match each winning streak.  We just have to make sure our winning streaks are a hair longer in nature and can produce some $$$ at the end of the season.

___

1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Under 10)

Dillon Gee was the unfortunate opponent of the Phillies last week who absolutely needed a win in Cliff Lee’s second start.  He really didn’t pitch bad (the numbers would indicate otherwise), the Phillies just had one of those games where the ball was jumping off their bats.  I look for him to get a nice bounce back start tonight.

Juan Nicasio is no ace either.  But he’s a solid pitcher.  I think his career 4+ ERA has a lot to do with pitching in the thin air of Colorado.  He’s had a few solid starts so far this year.  Expect him to last into the sixth before he passes the torch to the bullpen (hopefully our bullpens show up today and can get some shut down innings).  But considering this games being played in Colorado, why are we betting the under you ask?  The answer, simply put, has a lot to do with the weather.

Wind: In from right 10-20 MPH (good start for an under)

Game temperature: 35 degrees; 25 if you include windchill (yikes)

70% chance of snow (double yikes)

And don’t forget, the ball doesn’t travel as far in cold weather as it does in warm weather.  Throw a little bit of snowfall in the mix and it’s gonna be hard to jack anything out of Coors Field today, even in the thin air a mile above sea level.

Check these links for the scientific breakdowns on a couple of these issues:

http://www.livestrong.com/article/272213-the-effect-of-temperatures-on-baseballs/

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Sunday, April 14th, 2013

AP369123553384ooo_uhkp30tn_hnug1zuz4-13-13 Recap:

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-125)

1 Unit – Toronto at Kansas City (-130)

2 Units – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 9 (-120)

Season YTD: 18-14 +1.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 5-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-7

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 10-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 5-8

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-5

___

Last night was a microcosm of our season in a nutshell.  Once again we suffer from a reversion to the mean (I told you it will catch up to you).  Ian Kennedy gets lit up by the Dodgers, but it could have been avoided.  The game was going well into the 5th when a few runs were scored.  That’s fine.  I’m more concerned about the 6th inning when Kennedy gets 2 quick outs and then gives up a hit (the third of the game) to Ryu the pitcher.  Needless to say, 3 runs were scored in that inning.  A pitcher getting 3 hits in a game probably happens in less than 1% of games played.  It was all downhill from their changing the context of the game completely.  Frustrating, but all we can do is move on and keep grinding.

___

1 Unit – Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

Wandy Rodriguez is out for this one and Pitt is forced to make a late call up from AAA in Phil Irwin (I’ve never heard of him either).  This is an ideal spot for Cincy to get out of the offensive rut they’re in.  No way I expect them to get swept in this one.  And with Latos on the mound who’s got a 2.84 ERA with 13 K’s in two no decisions this year (also 4-0 in 6 starts with a 2.11 ERA in his career against Pitt)

1 Unit – Colorado at San Diego (Over 8)

The way Colorado’s offense is pounding the baseball doesn’t bode well for the under in this one.  Richard has struggled against the like of Tulo, Rosario, and Helton in the past.  That and Jorge De la Rosa hasn’t been able to solve the Padres in their recent history together either.  PetCo has moved their fences in this year and it seems to have been making a difference so far compared to the pitchers park sanctuary it was last year.

 

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 13th, 2013

385_zysdvuvy_prkjbjmo4-12-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)

WIN: 1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

WIN: 1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)

WIN: 1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)

Season YTD: 17-12 +3.86 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 4-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 9-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 5-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 4-5

Mets and the Dodgers/Diamondbacks Under we’re never in question. We finally win a close moneyline game with Cleveland.  Would’ve been nice to win just 1 of the remaining three games but Cincinnati’s comeback efforts go for nothing after battling back the whole game only to give up the lead immediately after tying the game.  It’s in those situations you hope your bullpen can come in and get a quick 1-2-3- inning to get you back in the dugout.  And of all bullpens, the Nationals keep us from a winning day blowing a late game against Atlanta.  Oh yeah, and I don’t even know what to say about the Angels.  Yesterday was a perfect scenario for them to make a stand for an early comeback for the season.  Definitely didn’t pan out that way.

Seems like we just can’t get back on track to our winning ways early in the season.  This is how baseball goes, you just hope you can tread water till you can get a couple solid days under your belt and then do it all over again.  Back to the grind over the weekend.

___

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-125)

Matt Harvey seems to be the real deal.  He’s had to great starts to begin the season (2-0 w/ a 0.64 ERA in 14 IP with 19 Ks) and shouldn’t have to much trouble with the struggling Twins.  His opponent in Scott Diamond hasn’t thrown in a game yet this year due to starting the season on the DL recovering from elbow surgery.  He pitched well last year but has average stats for the most part throughout his young career.  With the depth the Mets have in their lineup, -125 is a solid number to deal with.

___

1 Unit – Toronto at Kansas City (-130)

James Shields makes his debut in Kansas City as a Royal facing off against the veteran knuckelballer RA Dickey.  Coming from the AL East contender Rays, Shields has plenty of experience with the Toronto lineup.  The Jays definitely had a few personnel changes this offseason, but with his 11-5 career mark holding an ERA of 3.24, I think he can come out on top of this one.

___

2 Units – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 9 (-120)

We’re rolling out our first step out game of the year today, and it’s a doozy.  This game should probably be close to 7 or 7.5 at the absolute most. 9 seems like a gift.  Hyun-Jin Ryu has proven his worth so far this year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 2.13 ERA.  I don’t think his first road game should get to him, and I see him rising to the occasion.

Ian Kennedy has faired well against the Dodgers in the past and has great batter/pitcher numbers against roughly the entire team.  Here’s their starting lineup from yesterday, and his numbers against them.

Hairston, J, LF-3B   –   0-5

Ellis, M, 2B   –   0-6

Kemp, CF   –   4-16

Gonzalez, Ad, 1B   –   2-16

Uribe, 3B   –   0-8

b-Crawford, C, PH-LF   –   2-9

Tolleson, P   –   0-0

Howell, P   –   0-0

Ethier, RF   –   5-20

Ellis, A, C   –   2-9

Sellers, SS   –   1-3

a-Punto, PH-SS   –   0-3

Total: 16-95 (.168 AVG)

That’s no small sample size either.  He’s 5-2 in his career with a 3.24 ERA.  He’s also faired slightly better at home in his career which helps us here.

Both bullpens are fresh and ready to go in this one too.  Each has only pitched 7 2/3 innings in their last 3 games.

Nothing really points against us in this game except that maybe Ryu is making his first start on the road.  But let’s be real, he not exactly from here, so every game could be considered a road game to him.  Expect a 3-1 or 4-2 kind of contest in this one.

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Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Friday, April 12th, 2013

143344089_crop_exact4-11-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels (Under 8.5) (-115)

Season YTD: 14-9 +4.16 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-7

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

First tough loss of the year IMO.  Top of the 9th inning error costs us the under by 1/2 a run.  On the flip side, had it not happened, we would’ve only WON by half a run as well.  In games like that, you have to realize over a 162 game season, it’s going to happen plenty of times.  To be a successful gambler, you have be able to roll with the punches.

Friday we’ve got our first big card of the year to start off the weekend.  A handful of aces go for the third time this season.  You’ll notice the more information and starts that are in the books, the more we’ll test our luck with moneylines and runlines.

A total of 6 games Friday, and sorry but I don’t have time to re-look up all the stats for my writeups.  Just know at the time of writing this paragraph, it’s 11:46 PST and I started doing research at 10:00.

___

1 Unit – Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-101)**Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Atlanta at Washington (-129)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – Chi White Sox at Cleveland (-135)

1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-102)** Bet this Friday, may get a better line

1 Unit – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 8 (-110)

1 Unit – Houston at LA Angels (-1.5) (+115)** Bet this Friday, may get better line

Pitt’s struggled all year.  Just because they have Burnett on the mound doesn’t mean they should be favored against the best in the NL Central.  Also, Leake has faired well against the Pirates in the past.

Atlanta comes into this game 8-1.  Washington is going to want to defend their home turf against the NL East rivals.  Expect this series to be a battle all year.  In this game though, the pitching matchup is by far in favor of Washington.  Anything under -140 seems like a good price for this one.

Cleveland’s had the luxury of having 2 days off.  A hot Justin Masterson takes the mound and at -135 at home, I expect the Indians to get back on track.  Quintana should be welcome sight after facing a few Yankee veterans.

The Twins have come back down to earth, but you could make the argument that so have the Mets.  At even odds, I think the combination of Niese and the NY lineup should be able to best Worley and the slumping Twin bats, even on the road.

Clayton Kershaw has yet to give up an earned run so far this year.  No reason this total should be 8, especially when his opponent in Patrick Corbin has had success against the Dodgers in the past.  Still without proof that Kershaw can get lit up this year, anything above 7 is a bet for sure in this one.

Lastly, Houston has had their moment.  Too bad for us it had to happen against Seattle.  Frankly, 2 may be their longest winning streak of the season.  This is a perfect situation for LA.  They’ve struggled, so they have no reason coming into this game to overlook the Astros.  Hanson is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his career against Houston.  Bud Norris, to say the least, struggled mightily on the road last year.  the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play is because the Angels bullpen hasn’t proven they can get anyone out yet this year.  Play it for 1.

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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

The Betting Corner: Thursday, April 11th, 2013

AP768562731672ooo_bq2vtikw_j2cz3q3e4-10-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Colorado at San Francisco (-135)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Arizona Under 9 (+105)

WIN: 1 Unit – Tampa Bay at Texas Under 9 (+100)

Season YTD: 14-8 +5.31 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 3-6

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 8-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 4-6

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-5

A solid 2-1 day to get us back moving in the right direction.  Both our wins cover easily.  Had the Bucko’s pitching staff known they had a game today, we may have swept the day.  Oh well, still a very solid start to the season.  Travel day Thursday before the weekend series’ begin.  Only on 1 total for the day.

___

1 Unit – Oakland at LA Angels Under 8.5 (-115)

These two teams have been able to score on each other so far in the first 2 games of this series.  I think that stops Thursday as two very underrated pitchers take the bump.  AJ Griffin and Jason Vargas are very quality #4 starters.  And they’ve had success against their opponents in the past.  Griffin has only pitched against the Angels once but he lasted 8 innings giving up no earned.  Vargas has faced off against Oakland 13 times, going 5-5 with a 3.13 ERA in the process (giving up 1, 3, 1, 2, and 2 ER in his last 5).  I’m pretty confident that if we can get this one to the bullpens at 5 total runs or less, we should be able to take it to the bank.

 

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Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
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TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling.  We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

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