The Betting Corner: MLB Saturday, April 27th, 2013

jhonny1000_uza9ccxe_cocpn83r4-26-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

Season YTD: 30-25 +3.12 Units

Screen shot 2013-04-27 at 12.23.31 PM

Two consecutive days now we haven’t even been close with our plays.  We haven’t lost many like this so far this year.  Now you see why I’ve been frustrated losing games we shouldn’t be, because you knew these types of games would come where you’ve got no shot.  Our record isn’t indicative of the types of plays we’ve been putting out this year.  Hopefully our breaks will come sooner rather than later.

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1 Unit – San Francisco at San Diego (-105)

It’s no secret that Barry Zito has struggled against San Diego in the past (holding 4.52 ERA aginst them in his career.  But Stults is no saint against the Giants either.  Even though he’s got a positive record, he’s still rocking a 4.94 ERA against the them.  So you can throw those stats out the window.  This one seems pretty simple.  At roughly even money, I’ll go with the better offense and pitcher overall this year.

Zito is sporting a 3-1 record with a 3.42 ERA.  Keep in mind too that all of his runs this year were given up in Milwaukee 2 weeks ago where he got lit up for 9 earned in 2.2 innings.  Other than that, he’s been untouchable.  Outside of his first start of the year, Stults has been touched up on a continuous basis, giving up 4, 3, and 5 runs to the Dodgers twice and our Giants.  San Fran is averaging 4.2 runs per game in 2013 (4.09 on the road) versus San Diego’s measly 3.2 runs per game (3.30 at home).

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1 Unit – LA Angels at Seattle (Over 6.5)

This is one of those cases where just because Felix Hernandez is pitching, the total is set extremely low.  For this case however, he hasn’t historically pitched well against the Angels.  He’s fresh off his 100th victory as a starter, throwing 6 shut out innings with 9 K’s (granted it was against Houston).  His success, or lack there of, against the Angels in his career would indicate a different type of outing for him tonight.  He’s 6-12 over 30 career starts with an ERA just north of 4.  He’s lost his last 5 starts against LA, giving up 7, 2, 4, 4, and 5 earned runs.

Joe Blanton on the other hand, holds a 3.5 ERA over 15 starts against Seattle with an 8-5 record.  So far this year though, he’s yet to last longer than 6 innings or give up fewer than 4 earned runs.  It’s almost impossible to argue betting the under in any game listed at 6.5.  3 runs a pop and we’re home free for the over.  Given the above stats, I’d say the odds of that happening are far greater than not.

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Jeremy Murray
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