The Betting Corner: MLB Friday, April 26th, 2013

gordon_5axedjyy_zhhnascc4-25-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Texas at Minnesota (Over 8.5)

Season YTD: 30-23 +5.32 Units

Screen shot 2013-04-25 at 11.39.02 PM

Well, both pitchers came to play in this one.  Can’t say we had this one right.  Texas had a few chances with the bases loaded in the middle innings and less than two outs but couldn’t produce the breakout inning we needed.

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1 Unit – Atlanta at Detroit (+115)

Even though Detroit won against KC the other day, they still haven’t been playing well.  You could argue 4 of their runs were unearned because they came after an error that would’ve ended the inning.  2 of the remaining 3 runs scored were from players that walked due to the wildness of Wade Davis.  Outside of those gifts their offense has been stagnant.  Atlanta on the other hand went into Colorado and took 2 of 3 from the number 1 team in the NL West.

I feel I’ve got a pretty good read on Maholm this year, we’ve been on the right side of two if his games this year (one was last week with Pitt in a 3-1 victory).  He’s coming off the 3 earned runs we called and would love to bounce back against struggling Detroit.  Maholm is holds a 2.60 ERA against the Tigers in 3 career starts.  Add that to his outrageous 3-1 record and 1.03 ERA, I’ll take him as a road underdog against a struggling offense.

Anibal Sanchez on the other hand, while throwing well this year (2-1 with a 1.75 ERA), has struggled against Atlanta in the past.  In 17 starts, he’s 4-11 with a 5.42 ERA (Atlanta’s won the last 5 games he’s started against them).  And if we don’t get up early, it’s always nice knowing Atlanta’s bullpen is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA on the year.  That’s ranked #1 in MLB.  Detroit, not so much.  They hold a 1-5 record with a 4.86 ERA.  That’s good for 27th in the majors.

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1 Unit – Philadelphia at NY Mets (Over 7.5) (-120)

7.5 is an awfully low total for these two teams considering their offensive capabilities and who they’re sending to the mound.  Hell, Dillon Gee threw two and a half weeks ago against the Phils and gave up 7 in just 3 innings. Philadelphia hasn’t been playing bad.  They’re getting runners on base, they’re just not getting those timely hits to get over the hump.  Facing Gee again may be the kick they need.  He’s now got a 7.55 career ERA against them in 7 games.

The Mets offense has scored an average of 5.68 runs per game (ranked #1 in the NL) and are currently 7-4 this year against right handed pitching.  Kyle Kendrick has pitched well in the early going, but I expect enough of a hiccup if not from him then hopefully from the Philly bullpen who has fared so well when we’ve gone with them in the last.

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Jeremy Murray
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