The Betting Corner: MLB Thursday, April 25th, 2013

Getty_Jose_Valverde_IS_BACK_BABY_i7etjxz4_a3as2vup4-24-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Arizona at San Francisco (+150)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-120)

WIN: 1 Unit – Texas at LA Angels (Over 7.5)

LOSS: 0.5 Units – Kansas City at Detroit

WIN: 0.5 Units – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

Season YTD: 30-22 +6.37 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 12-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 7-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 15-6

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-15

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-11

___

We tack on 1.3 units yesterday, but it could have been a lot more IMO.  Tough to be frustrated with a winning day, but both our losses could have been avoided.  A costly error in Detroit opens up the floodgates to a 4 run inning (3B Mike Moustakas botched 2 ground balls in a row; one of which went right through his legs, costing us 4 runs in what could have been a win).  In Philly, another bullpen blows a 2 run lead we held the entire game late.  All 3 of our other wins were just as a suspected.  A coin flip of a game in San Fran goes our way, Cleveland and Chicago continue to have trouble scoring runs, and I’m pissed with a total of 7.5 I didn’t take the Angel game as a step out.  I had a feeling Texas could cover this one on their own with the pitching they were up against and they accomplished it in one inning.  We’re slowly grinding our way forward right now (which is a hell of a lot better than backwards) but we just can’t hit that break out day.  It’ll happen though, the streak will come. Until then, a slow profit is perfectly fine with me.

___

1 Unit – Texas at Minnesota (Over 8.5)

Texas hit the over for us last night themselves, we go back to them for the over in game 1 of their 4 game set with Minnesota.  Texas is on a tear at the plate of late and Minnesota is holding their own as well (scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5).  Vance Worley hasn’t proved he can pitch successfully at Target Field yet and last year he held an ERA a full 2 points higher at home vs on the road.  Texas sends to the mound rookie Nick Tepesch who has held his own early this 2013 campaign.  He’s yet to be weather tested in his young career and throwing in 30 degree weather against any MLB offense may prove itself to be a bit of a curveball.  Take the over.

 

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Jeremy Murray
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