The Betting Corner: MLB Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

BJ_Justin_Upton_b2b_p1uze741_kw4c469p4-23-13 Recap:

CANCELED: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8)

Season YTD: 27-20 +5.07 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 11-9

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 6-14

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 15-5

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 8-14

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 8-10

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We have another game cancelled yesterday.  In recent history, I don’t remember this many games that have been cancelled due to inclement weather.  We’ve got to be in or at least close to double digits at this point and there’s still a week left in the month of April.

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1 Unit – Arizona at San Francisco (+150)

As I’m writing this, Arizona has just taken a 6-4 lead over San Fran in the top of the 11th so I’m going to assume they’ll close it out.  We could’ve gotten a little more value out of this had they lost the first two games of this series but our bet Wednesday is based off of value anyways so it’s kind of irrelevant.

Ian Kennedy has struggled a bit this year, but the Giants would be a perfect candidate to break out of it.  In his career against San Francisco, he’s started 13 games and has a 6-2 record with a 2.38 ERA.  In his career at AT&T park, he’s 3-1 over 7 starts holding a 2.66 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .215 opponent BA.  His opponent in Madison Bumgarner has started off a little stronger this year, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA.  He hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in a start yet YTD.  He doesn’t have horrible stats against Arizona holding a .500 record in 8 starts and a 3.78 ERA.

Two reasons we’re betting this one.  The first is I don’t expect Bumgarner to continue his dominance in this game.  3 of his first 4 games were against under .500 teams and Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games against him.  The second reason is the moneyline is way off.  No reason in hell should Arizona be anywhere near a +150 underdog given this matchup.

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1 Unit – Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-120)

For the second game on our card, we’re going with Philadelphia in game two of this civil war series.  Hamel’s pitched well, but the Phillies offensive woes continued as they lost 2-0 Tuesday night.  They face off Wednesday against Wandy Rodriguez who’s started off the season strong.  He’s 2-0 in 3 starts with an ERA of 0.56.  However, in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, he’s sporting a 7.11 ERA over 4 games.  He’s also got the following stats against the following Philly hitters.  Ryan Howard (4-12 w/ 1 HR), Jimmy Rollins (6-15 w/ 1 HR), Chase Utely (2-10), and Michael Young (6-18).  Those are some encouraging stats for the core of the Philly offense (less Utley). Hopefully, they’ll be able to put a few early runs on the board and relieve some pressure off Halladay.

Speaking of Halladay, he seems to have figured out his early season woes, getting 2 wins in his last 2 starts giving up only 3 earned runs in 15 innings of work.  Not only that, but he’s pitched extremely well against Pittsburgh in his career.  He’s 4-1 over 6 starts with an ERA under 1.  At -120, at home, AND after a loss in the series opener, look for the Fightin’ Phils to bounce back and scrap out a win in this one.

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**Note – The lines on the following games aren’t up yet.  I’ll check into them tomorrow and update the page with plays if needed.

Atlanta at Colorado

Toronto at Baltimore

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0.5 Units – Cleveland at Chi White Sox (Under 8) -120

We’re hopping back on the same play we had yesterday before it got rained out.  We’re knocking it down to 0.5 units however because our odds were hacked from -105 to -120, and it scares me just enough that they were ready to go yesterday and have to re-prepare themselves all over again to start today (some pitchers can do it no problem and others hate breaking their routine).  The stats are still there to back up this play, but there’s a few more variables at work now.

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0.5 Units – Kansas City at Detroit (+166)

Wade Davis has always been a quick starter in his career.  In the month of April all time, he holds a 7-3 record with a 2.83 ERA.  So far this year, he’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA (and hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 2).  His opponent in Max Scherzer has also started off well this season, honing a 1-0 record with a 2.84 ERA.  The line is what get’s me in this one.  Detroit has been struggling to score runs (averaging 1.2 runs per game in their last 5) and has lost their last 4 in a row.  Kansas City played very competitively in Boston taking 2 of 3 (surprising considering the emotion Boston was playing with in front of their home fans for the first time since the bombing).  The only reason I’m not making this a 1 unit play is that neither of these teams have played a game in 3 days, so with that much time off, I don’t wanna get burned if Detroit’s offense comes out hot.

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1 Unit – Texas at LA Angels (Over 7.5) (-115)

The Angels Bullpen is taxed right now.  They’ve had 2 extra inning games in their last 3, of which the bullpen has thrown 14 innings.  De La Rosa, Downs, and Frieri have all thrown at least an inning of work in each of those 3.  As if that wasn’t bad enough, their hand is forced to use Michael Roth in a spot start thinning their bullpen even more.  This game could get out of hand quick against an offense as powerful 1 through 9 as Texas.  7.5 seems awfully low considering the above.  Not to mention, neither team has scored less than 4 runs in their previous 5 games.  Darvish is the only reason this game is near the number it’s at and he only lasted 5 innings and gave up 3 against the Angels not 2 and a half weeks ago.

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Jeremy Murray
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