The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 20th, 2013

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4-19-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Season YTD: 23-17 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 8-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-3

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-11

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-10

___

We were on the right side in yesterdays contest.  Starting pitching went pretty much as I expected, just a few runs given up on a few home runs for each.  We really cashed in this game though when the bullpens were able to shut it down completely in the last third of the game.  We’re on that little winning streak of 5-1-1 that I promised would eventually come after a run of bad games.  Lets hope we can keep it going.

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1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

Pittsburgh has been playing well lately.  Their offense is clicking and I was unaware of this last game, but their team bullpen ERA is 6th in MLB at 2.34.  Today is going to be a pitcher’s duel whether you realize it or not.  The names Paul Maholm and James McDonald don’t exactly scream “pitcher’s duel” but when you see the statistics you’ll come to realize why Vegas set this line at 7.5.

Paul Maholm hasn’t given up an earned run this year.  Granted he’s pitched against Washington (13th), Philadelphia (15th), and Miami (30th in total runs scored 2013) so he hasn’t been tested all that much.  Maholm brings a career 4.20 ERA (3.74 and 3.54 the last 2 years with Atlanta) into todays game.  One thing to note though is that on the road he holds a 4.80 ERA, giving him a home/away spread of almost a point difference.  Don’t expect him to exit todays game with less than 3 earned runs to his name (remember that reversion to the mean that I talked about, this is where it hopefully will help us tonight).

James McDonald comes into this game with a 1-2 clip and a 5.27 ERA; hardly a line you’d want to see your pitcher have against a team who’s only lost 3 games all year.  However, against the Braves in the past 3 years, he’s 3-0 over 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA.    Oh yeah, and his home/away splits last year, 6-2 at home with a 2.73 ERA vs just 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA at home.  McDonald also holds the edge in the batter/pitcher matchups.  You could argue that this is a coin flip of a ballgame, so at +130, we’re getting a nice price in this one.

___

1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Colorado’s bats have been their crutch as of late overcoming some shoddy pitching the last 5.  They shouldn’t need to score 8 in this one to secure a victory though.  Jorge De La Rosa takes the bump in his 4th start of the year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts.  In his career against Arizona however, he’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.41.  That’s quite a feat considering half those games have come in the altitude of Colorado.

His opponent in Trevor Cahill hasn’t had nearly as much success so far this year; or against the Rockies in his career for that matter. He’s 1-4 in 5 career starts against the Rockies.  This game shouldn’t be an even -110 contest.  I’ll ride the Rockies hot 5 game winning streak in this one.

 

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