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The Betting Corner: Round , Day 2

April 20, 2013 by Leave a Comment

 

Bracket

1 p.m EST on TNT

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Series 0-0

 

5:30 p.m. EST on ABC

Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

Series 0-0

 

7 p.m. EST on TNT

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Series 0-0

 

9:30 p.m. EST on TNT

Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Series 0-0

 

Pacers/Hawks

At 1p.m. EsT we have the sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks featuring Josh Smith and Jeff Teague visiting the  third-seeded Indiana Pacers with Paul George and David West. Indiana is trying to build on its great season despite missing star Danny Granger. The Pacers are 30-11 at home while the Hawks are 19-22  on the road.

 

11/7/12 Indiana @ Atlanta 86-89

12/29/12 Indiana @ Atlanta 100-109

2/5/13 Atlanta @ Indiana 103-114

3/25/13 Atlanta @ Indiana 94-100

 

As you can see the matchups these two teams have had in the regular season, home court advantage is HUGE and can determine the momentum of the series. I don’t want to sound like a broken record but the NBA playoffs are all about defense and limiting turnovers is a huge key to winning games. The Pacers and Hawks are similar in that category, with the Pacers committing 1227 turnovers while the Hawks committed 1219 for the whole season. While the Hawks are not known for their three-point prowess they rank 7th in the league in three-point percentage at 37.1 percent while the Pacers converted 34.7 of their three-point attempts. Whichever team can take care of the ball and limiting 3’s from the opposing team will win the game. But I do see this game going over the total 185.5

 

Key(s) to winning:Limiting turnovers and three-point percentage

 

1 Unit (Total over 185.5)

 

Lakers/Spurs

At 3:30PM EST comes one of the most exciting matchups we have in the West. The seventh-seeded Mamba-less Los Angeles Lakers visit the playoff experienced second-seeded San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are 35-6 at home while the Lakers are an ugly 16-25 away from Staples Center.

 

11/13/12 San Antonio @ Los Angeles 84-82

1/9/13 Los Angeles @ San Antonio 105-108

4/14/13 San Antonio @ Los Angeles 86-91

 

With and without Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have managed to keep all three regular season meetings close. Both teams know each other very well and without a doubt the key players for this game will be Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard versus Tony Parker and Tim Duncan., Ever since the All-Star break and the passing of Lakers’ owner Jerry Buss, the Lakers have found a sense of urgency and have clawed themselves back into the playoff picture. The Spurs however have been well… the Spurs, despite several injuries throughout the season, with the  managed playing times of his star players, Gregg Popovich has a full squad ready for another championship run. It will be a close game and even though the final score will not show, free-throw percentage will determine the outcome of the game as the Spurs shoot .791 while the Lakers shoot a disastrous .692 from the charity stripe.

 

Key(s) to winning- Free-throw percentage along with  the Gasol/Howard versus Parker/Duncan matchup

 

1 Unit (Lakers +9)

 

 

Heat Bucks

 

Interesting matchup coming in at 7 p.m. EST, the top-seeded defending champions Miami Heat host the eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat are 37-4 at home and the Bucks are 17-24 away from home.

 

11/21/12 Milwaukee @ Miami 106-113 OT

12/29/12 Miami @ Milwaukee 85-104

3/15/13 Miami @ Milwaukee 107-94

4/9/13 Milwaukee @ Miami 83-94

 

First questions that comes into mind, how many eightseeds have upset the No. 1 seed to move on to the second round? The answer is five.

 

  • The Denver Nuggets defeated the Seattle Supersonics 3-2 in 1994.
  • The New York Knicks defeated the Miami Heat in 1999, 3-2.
  • The Golden State Warriors defeated the Dallas Mavericks in 2007, 4-2.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies defeated the San Antonio Spurs in 2011, 4-2.
  • The Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Chicago Bulls in 2012, 4-2

 

Both teams will be healthy to start their playoff run, and as I’ve highlighted in red above, we have had upsets in the past twp years in a row where an eight seed knocked off a oneseed. Will Miami share the same fate or will it be the Thunder that will be a part of history? Opening games are always hard to predict even more so for this matchup, but 13 is just too much in a playoff game to be favorite by even when you’re the Heat.

 

Key(s) to winning- Big 3 of Miami Heat versus the entire Milwaukee Bucks

 

1 Unit (Milwaukee +13)

 

Thunder/Rockets

No hard feelings?  At 9:30PM EST we have another great matchup between the eighth-seeded Houston Rockets visiting the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are 34-7 at home while the Rockets are 16-25 away from Toyota Center.

 

 

11/28/12 Houston @ OKC 98-120

12/29/12 OKC @ Houston 124-94

2/20/13 OKC @ Houston 119-122

 

If you’re looking for an up-tempo/transition type of game and you absolute HATE defense, look no further, we bring you Houston at Oklahoma City. Why no defense? The Houston Rockets are an atrocious 28th in the league at holding their opponents to 102.5 points per game while the Thunder sit 9th at 96.5 points per game allowed. Knowing that the Rockets can’t play defense, offense will be key to winning this game as the Rockets rank second in the league with 106 points per game and the Thunder just slightly behind at third with 105.7 points per game. Will The Thunder feel the effects of missing James Harden in the playoffs and be the sixth team to lose to an eighth seed? Or will  Harden finally get his revenge on his former team?

 

Key(s) to winning- First team to 100 wins.

 

1 Unit (Total over 213)

 

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The Betting Corner: NBA Round 1, Day 1

April 20, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Bracket

Welcome! To the NBA Playoffs Betting Corner.

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

Series 0-0

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

Series 0-0

Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets

Series 0-0

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

Series 0-0

Knicks/Celtics

At 3pm the 2nd seed New York Knicks will take on the injured riddled 7th Seed Boston Celtics. The Knicks are 31-10 at home this season while the Celtics are 14-27 away on the road.

1/7/13 Boston @ New York 102-96

1/24/13 New York @ Boston 89-86

3/26/13 New York @ Boston 100-85

3/31/13 Boston @ New York 89-108

This game is about emotion. With the chaos happening in Boston, the Red Sox took it upon themselves to completed a series sweep of the Cleveland Indians. In a similar situations, the Knicks opened their season at home after superstorm Sandy devastated the New York Area; they routed the defending champions Miami Heat 104-84. I see emotions running high inside the Celtics heart and they will come out with ready to play for their home town. Both these teams have similar stats in free throw % and 3pt % and whoever can dominate in both categories will win the game.

New York Knicks FT% .759 3PT% .376

Boston Celtics FT% .776 3PT% .358

Key(s) to winning- FT% & 3PT%

1 Unit (Celtics +7)

Warriors/Nuggets

Moving onto game 2 of the day at 5.30PM ET we have 6th seed Golden State Warriors on the road in the Mile High City taking on 3rd seed Denver Nuggets. Nuggets are 38-3 at home this season while the warriors are 19-22 away on the road.

11/10/12 Denver @ Golden State 107-101 OT

11/23/12 Golden State @ Denver 91-102

11/29/12 Denver @ Golden State 105-106

1/13/13 Golden State @ Denver 105-116

Playoffs are about defense. Despite having the 1st and 7th highest scoring teams in this matchup, don’t expect TOO much offense between these 2 teams. Basketball is a team sport and the Nuggets understand George Karl’s system of sharing the ball. The Nuggets rank 3rd in assist per game while the Warriors rank 15th. This game is going to come down to guard play matchup of Curry vs. Lawson, whoever can get their team more involved is going to win the game.

Key(s) to winning-Assist & Guard Play

.5 Unit (Total under 210.5)

Bulls/Nets

In the Evening 3rd game of the day at 8PM ET we have 5th seed Chicago Bulls in Brooklyn taking on the 4th seed Nets. Nets are 26-15 at home and the Bulls are 21-20 on the road.

12/15/12 Brooklyn @ Chicago 82-83

2/1/13 Chicago @ Brooklyn 89-93

3/2/13 Brooklyn @ Chicago 85-96

4/4/13 Chicago @ Brooklyn 92-90

This is going to be a defensive matchup with 2 VERY defensive minded coaches. Despite not having Derrick Rose all season, the Bulls have exceeded everyone’s expectations. The Bulls rank 8th in rebounding while the Nets rank 10th and the Bulls rank 3rd in points allowed while the Nets rank 6th.

If the Bulls can make the Nets play their game of basketball (grind it out/tough half-court set) the Bulls can surprise the Nets.

Key(s) to winning-Rebounds

1 Unit (Chicago +5)

Clippers/Grizz

The last and final game of the night at 10.30PM ET 4th seed Los Angeles Clippers 32-9 at home host the 5th seed Memphis Grizzlies 24-17 on the road, let the DUNKING Begin…

10/31/12 Memphis @ Los Angeles 92-101

1/14/13 Los Angeles @ Memphis 99-73

3/13/13 Memphis @ Los Angeles 96-85

4/13/13 Los Angeles @ Memphis 91-87

This is the only matchup we have that’s a repeat of last year’s round 1 matchup. The Clippers look to move on once again while the Grizzlies look for payback for last year’s disappointment. Both teams have trouble taking care of the ball at times with the Clippers 13.8 turnovers per game and the Grizzlies 13.2 per game. But with all said, the Clippers have the most productive bench in the league and I just don’t see Memphis matching up with the bench production that Clippers have.

Key(s) to winning-Bench Production & Turnovers

1 Unit (Total over 179)

Season YTD 0-0

Good Luck to all the betters and most importantly enjoy the games.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Chin Tan
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
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The Betting Corner: Saturday, April 20th, 2013

April 20, 2013 by Leave a Comment

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4-19-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Houston (Under 8.5)

Season YTD: 23-17 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 8-8

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 5-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 13-3

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 7-11

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-10

___

We were on the right side in yesterdays contest.  Starting pitching went pretty much as I expected, just a few runs given up on a few home runs for each.  We really cashed in this game though when the bullpens were able to shut it down completely in the last third of the game.  We’re on that little winning streak of 5-1-1 that I promised would eventually come after a run of bad games.  Lets hope we can keep it going.

___

1 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+130)

Pittsburgh has been playing well lately.  Their offense is clicking and I was unaware of this last game, but their team bullpen ERA is 6th in MLB at 2.34.  Today is going to be a pitcher’s duel whether you realize it or not.  The names Paul Maholm and James McDonald don’t exactly scream “pitcher’s duel” but when you see the statistics you’ll come to realize why Vegas set this line at 7.5.

Paul Maholm hasn’t given up an earned run this year.  Granted he’s pitched against Washington (13th), Philadelphia (15th), and Miami (30th in total runs scored 2013) so he hasn’t been tested all that much.  Maholm brings a career 4.20 ERA (3.74 and 3.54 the last 2 years with Atlanta) into todays game.  One thing to note though is that on the road he holds a 4.80 ERA, giving him a home/away spread of almost a point difference.  Don’t expect him to exit todays game with less than 3 earned runs to his name (remember that reversion to the mean that I talked about, this is where it hopefully will help us tonight).

James McDonald comes into this game with a 1-2 clip and a 5.27 ERA; hardly a line you’d want to see your pitcher have against a team who’s only lost 3 games all year.  However, against the Braves in the past 3 years, he’s 3-0 over 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA.    Oh yeah, and his home/away splits last year, 6-2 at home with a 2.73 ERA vs just 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA at home.  McDonald also holds the edge in the batter/pitcher matchups.  You could argue that this is a coin flip of a ballgame, so at +130, we’re getting a nice price in this one.

___

1 Unit – Arizona at Colorado (-111)

Colorado’s bats have been their crutch as of late overcoming some shoddy pitching the last 5.  They shouldn’t need to score 8 in this one to secure a victory though.  Jorge De La Rosa takes the bump in his 4th start of the year.  He’s 1-1 so far with a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts.  In his career against Arizona however, he’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.41.  That’s quite a feat considering half those games have come in the altitude of Colorado.

His opponent in Trevor Cahill hasn’t had nearly as much success so far this year; or against the Rockies in his career for that matter. He’s 1-4 in 5 career starts against the Rockies.  This game shouldn’t be an even -110 contest.  I’ll ride the Rockies hot 5 game winning streak in this one.

 

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Jeremy Murray
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