The Betting Corner: Thursday, April 18th, 2013

041713-MLB--Braves-Juan-Francisco-DG-PI_20130417151948783_660_3204-17-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at Cincinatti

Season YTD: 20-17 +0.76 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 7-7

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-11

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 12-2

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-10

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-8

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Pretty self evident Lannan didn’t have his best stuff in this one.  The way the Phils offense has been playing this game seemed out of reach after he gave up 6 earned runs by the completion of the second inning.  Leake pitched well and had a few hits to go with it.  Nice card for tomorrow.

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1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Over 9.5)

This games opened up at 9.5 in a few early posting sportsbooks.  I’m guessing by morning it will be 10 at least.  Get it at as low as possible (preferably under 11 if you can; if it gets to there I’d drop it to 1/2 a unit).  Weather should be tolerable but that hasn’t seemed to stop these teams the last couple days anyways.  Low chance of rain and the wind should be blowing out to center 15-20 MPH by game time.

Also, these pitchers haven’t fared well against one another in the past and have been par at best against sub par offenses.  Niese has given up 4, 1, and 2 earned runs.  Doesn’t seem like a lot but he was facing Minnesota, Miami, and San Diego.  Those three teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in total runs scored (Miami is a solid 30/30).  His opponent in the Rockies is in second with 82 total runs scored.

Jon Garland has given up 5 earned runs against San Diego in 2 starts this year (12 innings pitched w/ a 3.75 ERA).  San Diego is ranked 19th in total runs scored this year.  His opponent in the Mets are only 1 run and 1 place behind Colorado (3rd at 81 total runs scored) for 2013.  I like the odds for this one to complete the sweep for overs in this one.

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1 Unit – St. Louis at Philadelphia (Under 7.5)

We learned last night that the Phillies have had nothing but issues scoring runs the past week.  Cole Hamels is veteran enough to know he’s going to need to be on his game to be in contention tomorrow.  Some would say this may pressure him a bit too much but he’s also pitching for himself today.  His first two games were very un-Hamels like and I expect him to continue the success from his third start.

Wainwright is no slouch either.  He doesn’t want to be the one the Phillies break out against.  He’s pitched well against the Phils in the past (2.20 ERA over 9 games).

It’s always hard to bet such a low under, but this one warrants it.

*Side note: This games hovering around a price of -120 as I’m writing this but I feel that will go down a bit by game time.  I’m wary to wait in the hopes it doesn’t drop to 7, but I think I’ve got the right read on this one.

___

1.5 Unit – Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-125)

I think it’s a decent spot for a step out in this one.  The Pirates offense has benefitted from beating up on two horribly underperforming bullpens this year (Cincinnati ranked #23 in bullpen ERA and St Louis ranked #30/30 in team bullpen ERA) .  Guess who’s #1 in starter and reliever ERA.  I’ll give you a hint, it starts with an “A” and ends with “tlanta Braves”.

The Pirates host Atlanta who finally lost yesterday ending their 10 game win streak.  That means there’s only one thing for them to do; start another one.  This price is a little ridiculous.  If you recall, last week when we had the Nats in their opener of that series, it was at -130 (should’ve won that game but that’s what Atlanta brings to the table; the ability to come back against anyone).  Teheran was the starter in that game.  He gave up 4 quick runs (2 on a HR to the opposite field by Bryce Harper; and it wasn’t a bad pitch either) but pitched very well after that. The Nats also had a much better starter than Jeff Locke on the mound in Ross Detwiler.

Basically, what this line is telling me, is that the .500 Pirates and Locke are worth more than the Nationals who were preseason favorites to place ahead of the Braves and win around 95 games this year?  Nah.  Take the -125 without hesitation. Lastly Locke isn’t an overpowering pitche.  Many experts have spoken their opinion that K’s are one of the Braves only weaknesses this year.  that being said, Their one weakness shouldn’t be TOO much of an issue in this one.

 

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Jeremy Murray
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