4-14-13 Recap:
LOSS: 1 Unit – Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
LOSS: 1 Unit – Colorado at San Diego (Over 8)
Season YTD: 18-16 -.24 Units
MLB Futures Watch:
.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 6-6
1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-8
1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 11-1
1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 6-8
1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-6
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I’ll be the first to say that the Colorado/SD game was off. Couldn’t have guessed both pitchers we be lights out in this one and I can live with that though. But in our Cincy game, I bet you can’t guess what happened. You’ll never guess it. OK I’ll tell you, we get screwed again by another late inning bullpen blowup by the Reds. It would be one thing if this losing streak we’re on was me not doing my research and just being on the wrong side of games. But over the last week it’s just one unlikely thing after another keeping us from wins. Pitt put up 10 runs over 2 innings blowing our 5-0 lead. We ended yesterday in the red for the first time of the season basically giving back our 8-0 start to the season. Talk about a roller coaster start to the season in only the first two weeks.
I still believer we’re on the right side of these games but the breaks just aren’t going our way. You see I’m venting a bit, but get used to it. it’s a long season and the only guarantee I gave at the beginning of the season (and after our 8-0 start to the season) was that there would be losing streaks to match each winning streak. We just have to make sure our winning streaks are a hair longer in nature and can produce some $$$ at the end of the season.
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1 Unit – NY Mets at Colorado (Under 10)
Dillon Gee was the unfortunate opponent of the Phillies last week who absolutely needed a win in Cliff Lee’s second start. He really didn’t pitch bad (the numbers would indicate otherwise), the Phillies just had one of those games where the ball was jumping off their bats. I look for him to get a nice bounce back start tonight.
Juan Nicasio is no ace either. But he’s a solid pitcher. I think his career 4+ ERA has a lot to do with pitching in the thin air of Colorado. He’s had a few solid starts so far this year. Expect him to last into the sixth before he passes the torch to the bullpen (hopefully our bullpens show up today and can get some shut down innings). But considering this games being played in Colorado, why are we betting the under you ask? The answer, simply put, has a lot to do with the weather.
Wind: In from right 10-20 MPH (good start for an under)
Game temperature: 35 degrees; 25 if you include windchill (yikes)
70% chance of snow (double yikes)
And don’t forget, the ball doesn’t travel as far in cold weather as it does in warm weather. Throw a little bit of snowfall in the mix and it’s gonna be hard to jack anything out of Coors Field today, even in the thin air a mile above sea level.
Check these links for the scientific breakdowns on a couple of these issues:
http://www.livestrong.com/article/272213-the-effect-of-temperatures-on-baseballs/
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/
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