1 Unit – NY Mets at Minnesota (-125)
1 Unit – Toronto at Kansas City (-130)
2 Units – LA Dodgers at Arizona Under 9 (-120)
Season YTD: 18-14 +1.76 Units
MLB Futures Watch:
.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 5-6
1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 4-7
1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 10-1
1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 5-8
1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 5-5
Last night was a microcosm of our season in a nutshell. Once again we suffer from a reversion to the mean (I told you it will catch up to you). Ian Kennedy gets lit up by the Dodgers, but it could have been avoided. The game was going well into the 5th when a few runs were scored. That’s fine. I’m more concerned about the 6th inning when Kennedy gets 2 quick outs and then gives up a hit (the third of the game) to Ryu the pitcher. Needless to say, 3 runs were scored in that inning. A pitcher getting 3 hits in a game probably happens in less than 1% of games played. It was all downhill from their changing the context of the game completely. Frustrating, but all we can do is move on and keep grinding.
1 Unit – Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
Wandy Rodriguez is out for this one and Pitt is forced to make a late call up from AAA in Phil Irwin (I’ve never heard of him either). This is an ideal spot for Cincy to get out of the offensive rut they’re in. No way I expect them to get swept in this one. And with Latos on the mound who’s got a 2.84 ERA with 13 K’s in two no decisions this year (also 4-0 in 6 starts with a 2.11 ERA in his career against Pitt)
1 Unit – Colorado at San Diego (Over 8)
The way Colorado’s offense is pounding the baseball doesn’t bode well for the under in this one. Richard has struggled against the like of Tulo, Rosario, and Helton in the past. That and Jorge De la Rosa hasn’t been able to solve the Padres in their recent history together either. PetCo has moved their fences in this year and it seems to have been making a difference so far compared to the pitchers park sanctuary it was last year.
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