4-7-13 Recap:

LOSS: 1 Unit – Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1.5) (+120)

LOSS: 1 Unit – Arizona at Milwaukee (Under 7.5) (+101)

WIN: 1 Unit – San Diego at Colorado (-145)

Season YTD: 11-4 +6.61 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 1-5

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-5

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 5-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 3-4

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 3-3

Should’ve listened to my gut.  Can’t always go by stats when it comes to betting as we saw today in the Cleveland game.  The Tandem of Kennedy and Gallardo were not their usual selves either which cost us 2 of our 3 games on the day.  In our futures watch, we go 4-1 as Seattle costs us a game.  Back to the grind tomorrow.

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1 Unit – NY Mets at Philadelphia (-112)

There’s plenty of different ways you can look at this game.  The reason we’re getting such a good price on this game is because Vegas is banking on the public seeing 2 things and 2 things only.  First off, the teams; the Mets are 4-2 and the Phillies are 2-4.  Second, the pitchers; Matt Harvey is 1-0 on the year with a 0.00 ERA and Roy Halladay is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA.

Why are we betting the Phillies you my ask; because of the stuff the public won’t necessarily look into.  In their previous games Halladay pitched against the Braves (26 runs scored in 6 games).  **Yes, I realize the Mets have scored 32 runs in their 6 games to start the season but let’s be honest, they played the Padres (projected to finish last in their division) and Miami (projected to finish last in their division).**  Harvey pitched against the Padres (13 runs scored in 6 games).  Apples to Oranges if you ask me. Halladay still had 9 K’s in his first start.  So it’s not the command that’s the issue, it’s his velocity.  He just has to realize his fastball isn’t the overpowering pitch it once was, and I felt even in the middle of just the first game of the season, Doc was trying to make the necessary adjustments on the fly.  Expect a different game from him in this one  and at virtually even odds, I’m all over it.

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1 Unit: Cincinnati at St. Louis (-110)

St. Louis makes their home debut for the 2013 season against their division rivals.  Both offenses are clicking right now so we take a closer look at the pitching matchup.  Garcia has always pitched much better at home than on the road (last year 2.82 ERA vs 5.02 ERA).  I also like this game because the batter/pitcher matchups.  I don’t feel like listing all of them but Garcia definitely wins this category.  And that’s with Furcal and Freese on the DL (both have had very successful careers against Latos). Outside of that I just have a gut feeling that St. Louis will be able to do what they need to come out on top in this game.

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