4-5-13 Recap:
LOSS: Arizona at Milwaukee (-116)
Season YTD: 8-1 +7.10 Units
MLB Futures Watch:
.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 1-3
1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-3
1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 3-1
1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 3-2
1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 2-2
Another solid day in our futures watch, but we do suffer our first loss of the season. To be honest, I’m kind of frustrated. I’m frustrated due to the fact that injuries gave us no chance in this one. Lohse pitched just as I suspected. He lasted 6 innings (thanks to his pitch limit) giving up only 1 run. However, Ryan Braun was a late scratch due to neck spasms, and Aramis Ramirez inured his leg sliding into second in the fourth inning. The Brew Crew just couldn’t produce any offense outside of a solo home run early on. But what can you do, on to the next day; and it’s a big one packed with 4 plays.
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1 Unit – Minnesota at Baltimore Under 9 (-110)
Even though it may not seem it because I tend to lean towards trends when it comes to baseball more than anything, I’m a strong believer in a regression to the mean. What exactly does that mean? It means that everything will revert back to the average. Specifically, I’m talking about Chris Davis and his record breaking start to the season. Of the 29 runs the O’s have scored, he’s batted in 16 of them. He’s hit an home run every game this year, and blasted out a grand slam yesterday. It’s gotta stop some time. And I think he cools off a little against Vance Worley.
Vance was a bit of a surprise for me on opening day. I didn’t expect him to embrace his role as the Twins #1 and it almost cost us 1.25 units (we had Detroit -1.5 at -125; they won 4-2). Last year, on the road, he held a 2.98 ERA with a 4-4 record. It’s no surprise that the Orioles have come out hot in the 2013 season so there’s no reason for him to overlook them. Expect another solid outing from Vance tomorrow.
On the other side, the O’s send to the mound, recently off the DL, Chris Tillman. Tillman had a solid 2012 sporting a 9-3 record with a 2.93 ERA (4-1 with a 2.79 ERA at home). He pitched once against the Twins and gave up 7 runs (1 earned) in 2/3 innings. Nothing is more frustrating for a pitcher than getting prematurely knocked out of a game because your defense can’t field a ground ball. He’ll be looking to make amends for his early exit last June and last a good 6+ innings. Expect runs to be at a premium in this one. Take the under.
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.5 Units – Arizona at Milwaukee (+122)
Last night we saw the harsh reality that is the Brewers offense without 2 of their superstars (Braun and Ramirez). Today, we’re gambling a bit with just a half unit play hoping that both of them will remain on the sidelines and we can get this line at plus money before it moves to about even tomorrow afternoon (this is exactly the type of situation I like to leave .5 unit bets for).
On the mound for Arizona is sophomore Patrick Corbin. He had a solid rookie campaign, followed by a strong spring (3-0 with a 2.81 ERA). Mike Fiers also pitched well last year but struggled to find his command early this pre season. If Braun and Ramirez are out tomorrow (remember, Ramirez was sidelined this offseason with a lingering knee injury so they may be a bit cautious with him) as I suspect they will, we’re getting great value on the better offense in this one. Lets hope it works out.
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1 Unit – Oakland at Houston Under 8.5 (-121)
Remember how I said we’re going to try and roll with Houston and the under as long as Vegas gives us good lines? This is one of those lines. Bud Norris was a late scratch for this game to be replaced by Erik Bedard. This actually helps us, because Norris kills it at home, and Vegas would’ve easily set this line at about 7. With Bedard as a late add on, they have no choice but to put it at 8 to 9. Don’t panic though, Bedard is a veteran and he’ll gladly take a spot start (I’m half surprised he’s not a starter for this excuse of a team in the first place – technically I think he’s listed as the #5). In his last 5 starts against the Athletics, he’s given up a total of 2 runs in 32 2/3 innings. That’s close to a .50 ERA!
Bartolo Colon on the other hand hasn’t pitched against Houston since 2007; back when they were relevant. Even at age 38 last year, he finished 10-9 with a 3.43 ERA (5-3 with a 3.27 ERA on the road). Expect another low scoring game out of the Stros, which should give us enough leeway to ride Bedard’s coat tails to this under.
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1 Unit – San Diego at Colorado Under 11 (-105)
This one seems simple enough to write up. Two pitchers that have had decent springs (Ross – 2.42 ERA & Garland – 2.00 ERA). The Padres have struggled to score runs so far this year (10 total in 4 games). They’re playing in Colorado, not on the moon… Should be capped around 9. No way in Hell this game should have a total of 11 (should’ve pulled the trigger on yesterday’s o/u 11 in this one too). One of the pitchers could easily get lit up for a big inning, but 11 is just way too high IMO.
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