The Betting Corner: Friday, April 5th, 2013

31139365-mjs_brewers_spring_training4-4-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Kansas City at Chi White Sox Under 8.5 (-110)

Season YTD: 8-0 +8.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 1-2

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-2

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 2-1

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 2-2

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 2-1

We keep the undefeated start to our season alive with an easy win in Chicago.  Other than a 4 run fifth inning, nothing but zeros and we take it to the bank.  In hindsight I regret not betting the Yankee game but what can you do.  In our futures watch, Pitt squanders their home opening series to the Cubs and Oakland splits with Seattle 2-2.  Both Atlanta and Cleveland fail to sweep and lose their first games of the season.  On a full card Friday, only 1 play again.  Let see if we can make it 9.

___

1 Unit – Arizona at Milwaukee (-116)

It’s the much anticipated debut for Kyle Lohse after signing late with the Brewers this spring.  Some will say he held off to long for his contract but he’s on a team now so that’s all behind us.  That being said, this line kind of baffles me.  Opening up in the -115 to -120 range, in his home opener, with a new team, after going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA last year.  Vegas is acting like he just came off Tommy John surgery or something. He missed a few games in spring… Who the f#&k cares!  Most pitchers are working on mechanical issues early on in spring anyways.  He was just doing it with Scott Boras in lovely So Cal rather than against a bunch of AAA guys who are trying to make an opening day roster.

Not only that, but Milwaukee doesn’t exactly have a bunch of scrubs behind him on offense.  Hell, the Twins just took 2 of 3 from the AL champ Tigers with just Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham.  The Brewers march to the plate the likes of Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun (who is 2 for 5 in his career against Miley with 2 HR), and Aramis Ramirez.  That’s a pretty solid 2 though 4 if you ask me.

Oh yeah, and another thing, last years stats don’t lie.  Lohse went 1-0 in 11 2/3 innings last year against the Diamondbacks, giving up only 1 run.  The D-Backs counter punch – Wade Miley – gave up 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 sporting a 1-1 record.  Miley just hasn’t been the same pitcher that started off hot last April (3-0 with a 1.29 ERA).  He was 2-2 with a 5.90 ERA in September and ended the season with a no decision in October giving up 3 ER in that game.  Not to mention this spring he gave up 11 runs in 13.1 IP and batters are sporting a .333 average against him.  Yes, I realize Lohse may have a tiny pitch limit attached in this one (That’s really the only reason this isn’t a 1.5 unit play).  It’s most likely going to be just south of 100 pitches.  I don’t think the Brewers bullpen will struggle after having a day off I highly doubt Axford goes 0-2 to start off the season with save opportunities (if it even comes to that).

 

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Jeremy Murray
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