4-2-13 Recap:
WIN: 1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers (+103)
Season YTD: 4-0 +4.26 Units
MLB Futures Watch:
.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 0-1
1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-1
1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 1-0
1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 2-0
1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 1-0
Solid call yesterday on Bumgarner and the defending champs. Didn’t expect a 2 hit shutout, but I figured Ryu wouldn’t be perfect and we were right. 3-0 today on our season total watch with wins by Cleveland (who I was very close to putting half a unit on at +170; hindsights 20/20) and Seattle. Houston missed being the victim of a perfect game with last minute heroics by Marwin Gonzalez (who the?!) when he singled up the middle on the 111th pitch by Yu Darvish.
Today, as will probably be a theme the first week or two of the season, is full of totals. I’ve found it’s easier to cap the game as a whole based off the pitching match-ups vs trying to predict who comes out on top (at least early out the gates that is).
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1 Unit – Philadelphia at Atlanta Over 7.5 (+100)
We watched these two offensive juggernauts hit 4 home runs Monday and score a total of 12 runs. Regardless the bullpens these two teams have, I think this one goes over the total by the end of the 7th. That’s hard to say when you think of the reputation that Roy Halladay has. However, He wasn’t the same pitcher last year that won the Cy Young in 2010. He still sported an 11-8 record but had a 4.49 ERA. This spring he struck out a batter per inning but had a 6.06 ERA (this is why it’s so hard to judge spring stats).
On the other end, Paul Maholm has a solid 4-2 record against the Phils in 9 starts but only a 5.16 ERA. His 2012 home record (8-3 w/ a 3.06 ERA) and solid 2013 spring work against us, but I see no reason why both of these teams shouldn’t be able to put 4 runs on the board each before the set up men and closers enter the game.
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1 Unit – Texas at Houston Under 8.5 (-115)
Last night was more of an indication of what we can expect from Houston’s offense throughout this year. 1 out away from a perfect game, only to be bailed out by their #9 batter who sniped a goal 5 hole on poor Yu. Well, just some more information to take to the bank. Expect the same again tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros score 1 run or less in 25% of their games this year.
Alexi Ogando wants to prove he deserves to be in the starting lineup again. In 2011 as a starter, he went 13-8 with a 3.51 ERA, and I think it’s safe to say they only moved him to the bullpen because of Texas’ deep starting staff. Look for him to come out motivated, even against the Astros.
Phillip Humber on the other hand struggled a bit last year. He was relegated to the bullpen for the second half of the year where he finished up with a 6.44 ERA in 26 games (16 starts). Quite a fall from his .500 season over 26 starts in 2011 (3.75 ERA). That being said, I like what Phil’s done this offseason (2-2 with a 1.73 ERA), and maybe a change of scenery is all he needs to get back on track. I compare these Astros to the San Diego Padres a few years ago, who’s over/unders were rarely above 7.5, not because of great pitching (the were slightly above average at best) but because of a lack of offense (hitting in PetCo didn’t help). Vegas will catch on soon enough, but in the meantime, we’ll try to ride the under train as long as there’s value.
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1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers Over 6.5 (-115)
Everybody knows about Tim Lincecum’s production (or lack there of) in 2012. A 10-15 record in 33 starts with a 5.18 ERA is hardly the Tim Lincecum of old. So much so that they tried anything to get him out of is rut in October and even brought him out of the bullpen (which I believe was the first time in his career). Regardless, I haven’t seen much for improvement from Tim this Spring. His velocity is still down and the earned runs still up.
On the flip-side, for Becket it was the tale of two seasons. Whether it was a weather change, a diet change, or maybe a league change, he went from having a 5-11 record and 5.23 ERA in Boston to a 2-3 record (not so impressive) and a 2.93 ERA (quite an improvement). Personally, the NL West didn’t have the most electric of offenses as a whole last year, and I’m guessing that had a lot to do with it. Regardless, he bolstered a 7.79 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. With a total of just 6.5 and these offenses bound to rattle off a few runs eventually, I’ll take the over with these two on the mound.
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