4-3-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Philadelphia at Atlanta Over 7.5 (+100)

WIN: 1 Unit – Texas at Houston Under 8.5 (-115)

WIN: 1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers Over 6.5 (-115)

Season YTD: 7-0 +7.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 1-1

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-2

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 2-0

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 2-1

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 2-0

Another 3-0 day yesterday as we cover both the overs by the end of the 7th (as I suspected) and the under by 4.5 runs.  A lot less stress than our close games on opening day.  Either or, I’ll take a 7-0 start to the season any way I can get it.  11 games on the card for Thursday.  I don’t think the Yankees will get swept to start the season at home, especially with a veteran like Pettitte on the mound.  I just don’t think the number is right.  It’s still inflated just because the Yankee name behind the number.  The same with the Blue Jays (not getting swept at home) but -160 is a joke.  If you can get it in the -130/-135 range go for it.  Otherwise, just stick with the one total for the day.

___

1 Unit – Kansas City at Chi White Sox Under 8.5 (-110)

Game 3 of this AL Central clash involving the Royals and White Sox brings together Jeremy Guthrie and Gavin Floyd on the mound.  Both have had solid stats in the past few years, nothing amazing, nothing out of the ordinary.  Right around par for MLB.

However, each of their last 5 starts against the respective opponents have been far better than average.  Guthrie has lasted 6, 8, 7 2/3, 8. and 7 innings giving up 1, 0, 0, 0, and 4 earned runs respectively.  Gavin Floyd has chalked up 7, 7 2/3, 8, 7, and 7 2/3 innings giving up 2, 0, 2, 4, and 1 runs each start.  Given these two teams average offensive production through the first two games I expect this one to go under the posted total.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling. We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

4-2-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers (+103)

Season YTD: 4-0 +4.26 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 0-1

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-1

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 1-0

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 2-0

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 1-0

Solid call yesterday on Bumgarner and the defending champs.  Didn’t expect a 2 hit shutout, but I figured Ryu wouldn’t be perfect and we were right.  3-0 today on our season total watch with wins by Cleveland (who I was very close to putting half a unit on at +170; hindsights 20/20) and Seattle.  Houston missed being the victim of a perfect game with last minute heroics by Marwin Gonzalez (who the?!) when he singled up the middle on the 111th pitch by Yu Darvish.

Today, as will probably be a theme the first week or two of the season, is full of totals.  I’ve found it’s easier to cap the game as a whole based off the pitching match-ups vs trying to predict who comes out on top (at least early out the gates that is).

___

1 Unit – Philadelphia at Atlanta Over 7.5 (+100)

We watched these two offensive juggernauts hit 4 home runs Monday and score a total of 12 runs.  Regardless the bullpens these two teams have, I think this one goes over the total by the end of the 7th.  That’s hard to say when you think of the reputation that Roy Halladay has.  However, He wasn’t the same pitcher last year that won the Cy Young in 2010.  He still sported an 11-8 record but had a 4.49 ERA.  This spring he struck out a batter per inning but had a 6.06 ERA (this is why it’s so hard to judge spring stats).

On the other end, Paul Maholm has a solid 4-2 record against the Phils in 9 starts but only a 5.16 ERA.  His 2012 home record (8-3 w/ a 3.06 ERA) and solid 2013 spring work against us, but I see no reason why both of these teams shouldn’t be able to put 4  runs on the board each before the set up men and closers enter the game.

___

1 Unit – Texas at Houston Under 8.5 (-115)

Last night was more of an indication of what we can expect from Houston’s offense throughout this year.  1 out away from a perfect game, only to be bailed out by their #9 batter who sniped a goal 5 hole on poor Yu.  Well, just some more information to take to the bank.  Expect the same again tomorrow.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros score 1 run or less in 25% of their games this year.

Alexi Ogando wants to prove he deserves to be in the starting lineup again.  In 2011 as a starter, he went 13-8 with a 3.51 ERA, and I think it’s safe to say they only moved him to the bullpen because of Texas’ deep starting staff. Look for him to come out motivated, even against the Astros.

Phillip Humber on the other hand struggled a bit last year.  He was relegated to the bullpen for the second half of the year where he finished up with a 6.44 ERA in 26 games (16 starts).  Quite a fall from his .500 season over 26 starts in 2011 (3.75 ERA).  That being said, I like what Phil’s done this offseason (2-2 with a 1.73 ERA), and maybe a change of scenery is all he needs to get back on track.  I compare these Astros to the San Diego Padres a few years ago, who’s over/unders were rarely above 7.5, not because of great pitching (the were slightly above average at best) but because of a lack of offense (hitting in PetCo didn’t help).  Vegas will catch on soon enough, but in the meantime, we’ll try to ride the under train as long as there’s value.

___

1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers Over 6.5 (-115)

Everybody knows about Tim Lincecum’s production (or lack there of) in 2012.  A 10-15 record in 33 starts with a 5.18 ERA is hardly the Tim Lincecum of old.  So much so that they tried anything to get him out of is rut in October and even brought him out of the bullpen (which I believe was the first time in his career).  Regardless, I haven’t seen much for improvement from Tim this Spring.  His velocity is still down and the earned runs still up.

On the flip-side, for Becket it was the tale of two seasons.  Whether it was a weather change, a diet change, or maybe a league change, he went from having a 5-11 record and 5.23 ERA in Boston to a 2-3 record (not so impressive) and a 2.93 ERA (quite an improvement).  Personally, the NL West didn’t have the most electric of offenses as a whole last year, and I’m guessing that had a lot to do with it.  Regardless, he bolstered a 7.79 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP.  With a total of just 6.5 and these offenses bound to rattle off a few runs eventually, I’ll take the over with these two on the mound.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling. We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

4-1-13 Recap:

WIN: 1 Unit – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (+118)

WIN: 1 Unit – Detroit Tigers (-1.5) at Minnesota Twins (-125)

WIN: 1 Unit – St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-105)

Season YTD: 3-0 +3.23 Units

MLB Futures Watch:

.5 Units: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 77 (-110) 0-1

1 Unit: Atlanta Braves Over 87.5 (-110) 1-0

1 Unit: Houston Astros Under 59.5 (-110) 1-0

1 Unit: Seattle Mariners Over 77 (-125) 1-0

1.5 Units: Cleveland Indians Over 77 (-110) 0-0

I’ll take a 3-0 start to the year on Opening Day, even if it meant two of our games covered by only a half run a piece.  We’ll be on the wrong side of those games plenty this year so take em when you can.

Our futures plays have started off how we’d hoped, all but the Astros.  It’s only 1 game though.  They’ve got 58 more to go before I’ll be worried.  I was very close to taking the under in their game tonight but the line (o/u 8) was just set too low for my liking.  I’m predicting a 5-2 win for Texas.

For Tuesday, we’ve got a smaller than usual card with only 7 games, 2 of which are season openers (BAL at TAM & CLE at TOR).  I do still like one game however.

___

1 Unit – San Francisco at LA Dodgers (+103)

Defending World champs send Madison Bumgarner to the mound in game two against the Dodgers tonight.  Yesterdays game went down to the wire until, of all people, Clayton Kershaw broke it open with a 420 foot solo shot to center.  Lucky for the Giants, they won’t have to face him on the mound (or at the plate!) tonight.  The Dodgers will send instead to the mound rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Lets face the facts here, Hyun will be:

• Making his major league debut
• Following a 4 hit shutout from Cy Younger Clayton Kershaw
• Facing the defending world champions

If those three points weren’t enough, he’ll be going toe to toe with Madison Bumgarner who is 5-2 in his career against the Dodgers with a 2.98 ERA.  This game is all about experience.  At even odds, I’ll take the defending champs here against a rookie pitcher any day.

____________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for reading The Cover 4! Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

Oh yeah, tell your friends too!

Jeremy Murray
Guest Sports Activist for The Cover 4
http://www.facebook.com/thecover4
http://www.twitter.com/thecover4

TheCover4.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

All information regarding gambling is intended to be purely educational from an academic perspective, and not to actually encourage gambling. We are in no way condoning gambling and are not affiliated with any and all casinos/sports books mentioned.

https://thecover4.com/2013/04/03/the-betting-corner-monday-april-2nd-2013/